Five horses to follow at Cheltenham on Tuesday

Race: Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (1.20).

Tipster: Harry Allwood.

Best odds: 9-4.

Some performances give you the ‘wow’ factor visually, and that was the feeling after Old Park Star’s stunning victory at Haydock last time out where he travelled strongly and powered clear of some rivals who had shown useful form. 

The figures back that effort up, too, as the RaceiQ data shows he clocked the top speed (35.84mph) there plus also recorded the highest Jump Index score by gaining over nine lengths via his jumping. 

I believe that performance makes him the one to beat, and he also recorded a useful time plus impressed in the jumping department when scoring at Cheltenham in December. 

I won’t list all the facts and figures again here, but my colleague, Andy Stephens, has outlined why Old Park Star’s RaceiQ figures are so impressive, which is worth a read. 

The six-year-old appears to tick every box, and the fact he likes to race prominently is also a positive, while Nicky Henderson has won three of the past ten renewals of the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. 

The ground is also set to be in his favour, and he should be primed after enjoying a racecourse gallop at Kempton in February. He’s my banker of the meeting. 

Race: Singer Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase (2.00).

Tipster: Alex Scott.

Best odds: 11-2 (advised at 13-2).

I think there is tremendous value in Kargese’s current odds behind short-priced favourites Lulamba and Kopek Des Bordes.  

Whilst the latter has been the subject of positive reports and significant money this week, winning a strong Arkle off the back of one chase start would require one hell of a performance.

Meanwhile, Lulamba (like Kargese, was bred by Thierry Cypres) is three from three over fences and is hugely talented, but the fact he was beaten at the Festival last year is a nagging concern and the record of five-year-olds in the Arkle is pretty dreadful – 17 horses from that age group have run in the race since five-year-old Voy Por Ustedes won it 20 years ago, and they all have been beaten. Nicky Henderson’s novice also wanted every yard of the trip at Newbury last time and could be vulnerable to natural two-milers.

That takes us to Kargese, who is definitely a specialist over the minimum trip and ran Jack Kennedy’s mount close at the Dublin Racing Festival last time.

She doesn’t carry the same level of hype or fanfare as those other contenders, but she is a fantastic jumper, with a RaceiQ Jump Index of 9.0, and has already run well at the Festival twice, finishing second to Majborough in the Triumph and then winning the County Hurdle last year. Although she has won just one of her three starts over fences, she has improved on each occasion and there could be more to come back on this track on slightly better ground getting 7lb from her male counterparts.

Race: Unibet Champion Hurdle (4.00).

Tipster: Andy Stephens.

Best odds: 2-1.

Lossiemouth's exceptional record at Cheltenham tilts things in her favour. I'm not sure cheekpieces will add an extra edge, but she's worked in them at home and who are we to question the wisdom of Willie Mullins?

1 LOSSIEMOUTH 2 BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD 3 THE NEW LION

Race: Sun Racing Plate Handicap Chase (4.40).

Tipster: Dave Nevison.

Best odds: 18-1.

There are several in this race who have clearly been plotted up, but bookies have taken strong evasive action and there is no juice at all left in the prices available. I backed Jipcot last time out and certainly wasn’t alone as he shortened from 7-1 into 11-4 favourite.

For most of the race I was watching confidently so good was his jumping out in front, but the last mile from Swinley bottom proved too tough for him and he faded. I feel he will be much better suited by stepping back to this two and a half-mile trip and, even though this will be fiercely competitive, I am hoping Kielan Woods will be able to conserve some of his reserves to still be in it after the last.

He won in terrific style at Leicester on his penultimate start and after just three runs on this his second stint chasing, there might be several pounds of improvement in him. He certainly seems to have got the hang of jumping this time around.

Race: National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Handicap Chase (5.20).

Tipster: Donn McClean.

Best odds: 8-1.

Iceberg Theory has been making nice progress over fences since he made his chasing debut at Wexford last March.  A staying-on second in that beginners’ chase run over 3m1f, he didn’t run after that until he made his debut this season in another beginners’ chase at Limerick over 2m6f, which he won by two lengths.

He got stronger as the race progressed that day, he appreciated every yard of the trip, possibly helped by the runner-up idling and making a mistake at the last. But the first two finished clear of their rivals, and the runner-up, Boston Rover, won his next three and reached a rating of 134.

Paul Nolan's charge then went to Cork in November and won a 2m5f handicap chase off a mark of 120.  Again, he stayed on strongly and he left the impression that he would be even better when he stepped up in distance.  And again, the runner-up O’Toole added ballast to the form when he won the good handicap chase at Leopardstown on Monday on just his second run since.

Iceberg Theory hasn’t run again since then, but his trainer Paul Nolan reported him to be in good form on Tuesday after he had a winner at Leopardstown.

A British handicap rating of 133, 4lb higher than his Irish mark, is workable for the son of Flemensfirth, he should appreciate the ground and the step up in trip and, a seven-year-old who has raced just three times over fences, he has the potential to progress again.