Who will win the showpiece race on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival on March 10? Andy Stephens weighs up the credentials of Lossiemouth, Brighterdaysahead, The New Lion and more. Plus don't forget our Cheltenham Festival betting offers.
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1 ALEXEI
Trainer: Joe Tizzard. Official Rating: 148. Festival form: --. Jump Index: 7.6. Odds: 20-1.
Began life on the Flat in Germany and nobody was talking about him as being a Champion Hurdle contender after being beaten off a mark of 127 at Chepstow in October.
The strong traveller has progressed since, landing the Kingwell Hurdle on his latest start after gaining an emphatic success in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in November. In between, he was a solid third in another handicap at Ascot.
2 ANZADAM
Trainer: Willie Mullins. Official Rating: 156. Festival form: -. Jump Index: 9.1. Odds: 18-1.
Reading between the lines, it doesn’t sound like he’s the most straightforward horse to have ever graced Closutton and his defeats this season - all in Grade One company - have been a mixed bag.
He tanked along in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle but could not finish the job off and then ran much too free at Leopardstown over Christmas. He settled much better in the Irish Champion but lacked a change of gear, although the ground on the hurdle track at the Dublin Racing Festival blunted plenty. The suspicion is that he’s got a bigger run in him and the RaceiQ data rells us he's the best jumper in the line-up.
Trainer: Willie Mullins. Official Rating: 153. Festival form 1. Jump Index: 7.6. Odds: 10-1.
Produced one of the biggest shocks seen at The Festival last year when pouncing late to win the Triumph Hurdle at 100-1 on his hurdling debut. That was an astonishing effort, for all that he was a smart middle-distance performer on the Flat.
Poniros showed that was no fluke when subsequently runner-up at Punchestown (Lulamba turned the tables on him) and he caught a few eyes when a keeping-on third on his belated return in the Irish Champion last month.
He was never in contention but did plug on to pinch a place. The indications afterwards were that he would miss Cheltenham and instead head to Aintree, but that plan has been revised and he's been a springer in the market.
Trainer: Dan Skelton. Official Rating: 159. Festival form: 1. Jump Index: 7.8. Odds: 9-4.
The Dublin Racing Festival was dominated by the green and gold of JP McManus and the leading owner has a formidable team for Cheltenham with The New One his Champion Hurdle candidate.
His only blemish in seven starts has been when falling two out in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle in November. Would he have won that day? We will never know.
I’m not sure any of us know exactly how good The New Lion is as Harry Skelton has made a habit of smuggling him to the front late on in his races (the Newcastle front-running tactics were surely a one-off).
Equally, a best price of 9-4 does not exactly set the pulse racing. His form as a novice last season lacks substance as time has shown us that he was either beating ordinary opposition or rivals who are now established as stayers.
His career best was over 2m 5f in last year’s Turners and his pedigree points to intermediate trips, or further, suiting him best. That said, he's swift over the hurdles and has shown flashes of pace.
He had a fight on his hands when exiting at Newcastle and his narrow defeat of Nemean Lion (gave 3lb) and 138-rated Brentford Hope (received 3lb) over 2m 1f on soft ground on the New Course last time is impossible to read.
The race was a dawdle and he was up against one rival (giving weight) who usually runs over further and another at least 2st short of what is required to win a Champion.
5 TUTTI QUANTI
Trainer: Paul Nicholls. Official Rating: 151. Festival form: 6. Jump Index: 8.1. Odds: 16-1.
Connections of the runaway William Hurdle supplemented him on Wednesday.
He does devour deep going, as he showed on a heavy surface at Newbury last time when romping home by 15 lengths. That was a clear career-best, although he was running off a mark of 138 and not many of his rivals handled the conditions.
In an open year, it's perhaps understandable that the exuberant six-year-old is coming late to the party, although he's going to need another chunk of improvement to make his mark.
On better ground, he was a never dangerous sixth in the Supreme last year, when 125-1 , and he was also well-beaten off a mark of 132 on his return at Chepstow.
He completed his prep by having a gallop with No Drama This End at Kempton last month, when full of beans.
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead. Official Rating: 143. Festival form: 0. Jump Index: 7.4. Odds: 125-1.
This time last year he looked an exciting novice, having dished out a seven-length drubbing to William Munny at Leopardstown over Christmas. He went off at only 15-2 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on the back of that run but stopped quickly and trailed home last of 11 finishers behind Kopek Des Bordes. Meanwhile, William Munny was beaten only a length and a half.
The lightly raced eight-year-old must have been amiss and did not run again last term, eventually resurfacing in the Limestone Lad Hurdle at Naas in late January. He was a considerately handled fourth and stepped up on that when runner-up in the Red Mills Hurdle last time but equally, hardly looked a Champion Hurdle winner in waiting.
His handicap rating of 148 is intriguing, with De Bromhead suggesting the County Hurdle could be on the cards for him. William Munny is sitting on a mark of 156.
Trainer: Gordon Elliott. Official Rating: 159. Festival form: 24. Jump Index: 8.4. Odds: 7-2.
We all know this bruiser of a mare is top notch, so let’s get straight to the point: can Brighterdayshead cut it at Cheltenham or is the outlook for her there always going to be gloomy?
She suffered an odds-on defeat when runner-up to Golden Ace in the Mares’ Novices Hurdle two years ago and bombed out badly when a weary fourth behind the same horse in the Champion last year. She lined up with a rating of 161 and the BHA handicapper had her running to a mark of 132, so she was 2st below her best.
It's going to be a stick that people keep beating her with. But it might not be that straightforward.
The Mares’ Novices was slowly run and developed into a sprint. It played more into the hands of the winner. Tactics, not the track, looked the issue. The intervening period has shown us that Brighterdayshead excels in strong-run contests.
Last year was simply too bad to be true and her connections said afterwards she had a “small issue”. It’s transpired that “small issue” was a knee problem, that has since been rectified. So in my book she gets a pass.
This season we had been told she was going chasing. But her debut in that sphere, planned for mid-November, was delayed when “she was a little bit tight after schooling” and then put on complete hold. Setbacks for State Man, William Munny and Sir Gino, plus the big races failing to yield a standout candidate, have no doubt helped concentrate minds at Cullentra and Gigginstown.
She was a decisive winner of the Irish Champion last time, when too strong for Lossiemouth, and who can forget her relentless performance at Leopardstown the Christmas before when winning by 30 lengths? If she brings her A Game to the Cotswolds, then she will take some stopping. But will she?
8 GOLDEN ACE
Trainer: Jeremy Scott. Official Rating: 152. Festival form: 11. Jump Index: 7.9. Odds: 7-1.
It’s unlikely her breeders had the Champion Hurdle in mind for her. She’s a daughter of Golden Horn out of a Dubawi mare with her only sibling to go near an obstacle being well beaten in a novice hurdle at Bangor.
But the racing wheel spins in many directions and Golden Ace will line up as the defending champ, having subsequently won a Fighting Fifth Hurdle and been runner-up in the Christmas Hurdle, beating all bar Sir Gino.
She got lucky last year with the principals either crashing out or being below-par, but she was there to pick up the pieces. Ditto Newcastle in November.
In an unpredictable landscape, she’s become a source of reliability. You can certainly mark up her effort at Kempton last time as the combination of a sharp track and lively ground did not show her to best advantage. And she was up against Sir Gino.
A two-time Champion Hurdle heroine? More good fortune will likely be needed.
9 LOSSIEMOUTH
Trainer: Willie Mullins. Official Rating: 159. Festival form: 111. Jump Index: 8.0. Odds: 11-4.
The third will-she-won't saga has been resolved. She will!
Willie Mullins confirmed on Saturday that Lossiemouth would take her chance, wearing cheekpieces for the first time. It seems Majborough's transformation for headgear in the Dublin Chase is having an influential effect.
Lossiemouth has headed for the Mares’ Hurdle, over half a mile further, for the past two years, and won with authority each time, having also won the Triumph Hurdle in 2023. That had done little to appease those who want to see a horse who clearly relishes Cheltenham (she’s 4-4 at the track) in the big one, and now she is belatedly being given her chance.
Those closest to her seem adamant that the longer trip brings out the very best in the nine-time Grade One winner. But there cannot be much in it, can there?
In 12 races over 2m1f or less, she has won eight and been second three times, plus fallen mid-race on the other occasion. One of those defeats came when very badly hampered, when she somehow almost got back up. Some RaceiQ metrics suggest her best performances have been over the shorter distance.
What of those other two defeats? One was behind Constitution Hill in the 2024 Christmas Hurdle; the other when failing to get to grips with Brighterdaysahead in the Irish Champion last time. On both occasions she simply lacked her usual verve from an early stage. Was it a speed thing? A lack of headgear thing? I’m not convinced.
She is 5/5 when running over 2m 4f, twice when taking on the boys.
In previous years, Willie Mullins has had other leading Champion Hurdle players to rely on. Not this time. She’s head and shoulders his No 1, and is now a best-priced 11-4.
The Champion Hurdle carries a first prize of £262,078; the second gets almost £100,000, and the third about £50,000. Meanwhile, the Mares’ Hurdle winner will receive £70,337; the second £26,500, and third £13,262.
So, Lossiemouth could be beaten in the Champion Hurdle and still earn her owner, Rich Ricci, considerably more than if landing a third Mares’ Hurdle.
And, should she win the one that really counts, she will have won, at least in financial terms, more than three-and-a-half Mares’ Hurdles in one go. And that’s how most fans of the sport would balance the races in terms of their prestige and importance.
It's great to have her in the mix.
VERDICT
Lossiemouth's exceptional record at Cheltenham tilts things in her favour. I'm not sure cheekpieces will add an extra edge, but she's worked in them at home and who are we to question the wisdom of Willie Mullins?
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