Ross Millar: three to avoid at Cheltenham and Monday tips

I enjoy most sports, particularly if it’s at elite level, as my recent viewing of the Winter Olympics proves – I can’t say I watch much Curling in the intervening four years between Olympics! So, of course, The Cheltenham Festival is a particularly important week of my year. However, its increased popularity appears to be having a detrimental effect on the quality of racing in the preceding couple of weeks.

This was never more evident than at Newbury yesterday where the feature handicap chase, The Greatwood Gold Cup, attracted just eleven runners and was won by the relatively exposed nine-year old, Heltenham. His trainer Dan Skelton has finely tuned his race planning and has scooped plenty of good pots this season - I wonder whether other trainers need to take a leaf out of his book and target more winnable races rather than blindly heading towards Cheltenham in March?

Given the racing wasn’t vintage fare this weekend, I’ll skip the usual report. Instead, here are three horse’s that I think should be avoided at the Festival next week.

He struggled to match Kargese for pace in the Irish Arkle and it was only his stamina that saw him battle to the front late on before finishing extremely tired.

I’d be surprised though, if at this stage of his career, his stamina would stretch to the three-mile trip of the Brown Advisory Chase, a sentiment it seems his trainer, Gordon Elliott, shares given his reluctance to commit to this route.

The other concerning factor is how much that gut-busting effort at Leopardstown extracted from him, I’d be surprised if he was fully recovered and I’ll oppose him if he runs at the Festival regardless of race.

Make no mistake, she’s a high-class mare, but I think the adage ‘horses for courses’ applies perfectly to her. On a couple of occasions she’s twice delivered big performances at Leopardstown at Christmas in 2024 and then in last month’s Irish Champion Hurdle.

Yet, at Cheltenham she has run well below expectation on both attempts. She may have valid excuses, it’s possible Jack Kennedy was overly focussed on Jade De Grugy in the Ryanair Mares’ Novice allowing Lorcan Williams to slip away and she did return sore from last yea'rs Champion Hurdle (though it’s possible that soreness only occurred when she made a mistake when already beaten at the final hurdle). Either way she has plenty to prove, and even in a subpar renewal of the Champion Hurdle, I want to be against her.

He needs to be supplemented, but; given the authority with which he won the Irish Gold Cup at the DRF, that prospect is surely a distinct possibility.

However, I have always had the view that stamina is not his absolute forte. He’s a strong-travelling, fast-jumping individual, so much so that after his rampage in last year's Ryanair Chase, he was sent off 11-10 favourite for the two-mile Champion Chase at Punchestown.

I’ll concede that he showed greater depths of stamina than ever before last month, but the Cheltenham Gold Cup is over two furlongs further on a vastly stiffer track and it’s history books are littered with three milers who failed to stay the trip. He’s a tremendous talent and would add another layer to an intriguing Gold Cup, but I think he should be opposed.

She has run well on both starts since returning from a 400-day absence firstly at Uttoxeter when just beaten a neck and then last time out at Market Rasen where she looked set to at least match her debut effort before a mistake at the second last robbed her of valuable momentum.

The handicapper has dropped her 2lb since and back over a course and distance where she has winning form she can be competitive off bottom weight.

Fergal O’Brien’s mare has run well on both hurdle starts, firstly at Warwick when a close-up third behind Jackie Hobbs, now rated 125, and Betty’s Daisy, who is now rated 123.

On her next start, she faced stiff opposition in the form of Khrisma, rated 128 (and well-handicapped at that), the 124-rated Charisma Cat, as well as the 120-rated Watamu and the 119-rated Getawhisky.

She did weaken in the closing stages, but possibly as a result of racing on the pace against better opposition. She is in calmer waters here and should get off the mark at the third attempt over hurdles.