Cheltenham Festival handicap tips: five bets at 16-1 or bigger

Following the release of the handicap weights earlier this week, I’ve had a deep dive into each of them and have identified five horses who I think will go close. They are all priced at 16-1 or bigger, and I believe they represent decent value for the big four days in March. 

Generally, I tend to play towards the bottom of the markets, and my modus operandi is trying to identify those contender that others have easily passed over. Therefore, I’ve hopefully found a nugget or two for the this year's Cheltenham Festival. 

The first contender that I’ve landed on is in a handicap chase, which wouldn’t usually hold much significance, but I mention this one as he is trained by Willie Mullins. 

It is crazy to think that the master of Closutton holds the Trainers’ Championship title in Britain and Ireland, he’s Cheltenham’s most successful trainer of all time, has had the 1-2-3 home in a Grand National, Royal Ascot winners, Breeders’ Cup glory, and is arguably the greatest equine trainer in history. 

Yet from the 113 Cheltenham Festival winners that Willie Mullins has had, none have come in a handicap over fences. He’s sent 53 runners to handicap chase events, and does have some interesting contenders again for this year, although looks to have a stronger team of handicap hurdlers. 

The one that catches my eye is O’Moore Park in the Sun Racing Plate Handicap Chase. 

He ran a fantastic race when finishing third in last year’s Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (he also holds an entry in that race) and was against higher quality rivals there, with the winner going on to claim graded glory at Aintree. 

O’Moore Park then returned to Cheltenham at the April meeting, where he was denied by a well-handicapped performer, but that further enforced his liking for the track, and Cheltenham form is a big positive.

O’Moore Park has shown some nice form this season, too, and has possibly been campaigned over a trip too far, but that still resulted in a fifth-place finish in a big-field handicap at Leopardstown over the Festive period. More notably, he was second to Oscar’s Brother at Galway when beaten just over three lengths, and that was no disgrace given that the winner is a best-priced 10-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase. 

When many are looking for unexposed, younger, and seemingly progressive contenders in the handicaps, this race continues to be an outlier, with experience coming to the fore on numerous occasions in recent years. 

From the past 15 renewals, a contender aged nine or older has landed this prize on seven occasions, and three of the past four winners were: 

2022 – Coole Cody (11 years old)2023 – Seddon (10)2024 – Shakem Up’arry (10) 

There does also need to be consideration that the complexion of this race could be much different given the move from the New Course to the Old Course, and therefore the stats and trends could serve as little help. However, I’m happy to chance O’Moore Park at a best-priced 33-1. 

There’s probably little rush to back him now, given Mullins' record in handicap chases at Cheltenham, and the fact that he was sent off at 66-1 last year. Biding your time may well see you gain a better price, especially with the added concessions on the day. 

Before I make a case for this selection, I do want to mention Feet Of A Dancer, who is best-priced 20-1, but her participation looks unlikely. However, if she does run here, she would be one of my strongest handicap fancies of the week.

With Paul Nolan's mare likely to head elsewhere, I have landed on a contender who appears to have a few pounds in hand based on his chase mark, and represents a yard with a good record in this race. Nicky Henderson win this race in 2010, 2014, 2019 and 2020, and I like the chances of Jingko Blue.

He was sent chasing last season and achieved an official rating of 151 before the larger obstacles before switching back to hurdles. 

His latest start was an eye-catching performance behind Kabral Du Mathan, who now looks likely to contest the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle. He travelled well throughout that race, but was no match for the progressive winner.

He can show a lack of respect for his hurdles, which isn't ideal. However, I think he has a huge engine and, given the fact he has potentially half a stone in hand based on his chase mark, I think he can be competitive in this.

He's an attractive proposition at the general 16-1 on offer, with 20-1 available with bet365. 

Jazzy Matty was victorious in the Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase last year, giving Cian Collins his first Cheltenham Festival winner, and sending my living room into joyous chaos! 

He's not without a chance again, but the stats would suggest it will be difficult to repeat that success. The last winner to go back-to-back in the Grand Annual was in 1959. Ten of the past 12 winners have returned to this race and none have won, with just two hitting the places. 

I am therefore siding against the 2025 winner, and it is Relieved Of Duties who is the pick.

The selection was second over course and distance at the Showcase Meeting in October where he was patiently ridden, allowing the race to unfold in front of him, with the winner making all.

Relieved Of Duties stayed on nicely there and while you could argue that his finishing position was by default given Country Mile (third) made a couple of late errors, but he still finished over ten lengths ahead of Addragoole, who is now rated 142, and Relieved Of Duties will race off a rating of 136 here. 

He finished last of five two starts ago, and last of four on his latest start. However, I’m willing to draw a line through those runs, given that they both came on heavy ground, and all his best form has come on yielding or better. 

That form includes a third in the Moscow Flyer, when just three lengths behind Salvator Mundi. He’s clearly a  useful performer in the right conditions, and I think he may well have been targeted at this contest since October. 

He also holds entries in The Plate and Jack Richards, but I think he’s one sliding under the radar here, and I'm hoping “good” appears in the going description. He's one to take a second look at, especially with 33-1 available.

Hello Neighbour is my pick in the William Hill County Handicap Hurdle. He finished sixth in last year's JCB Triumph Hurdle before finishing third behind Lulamba at Punchestown. 

He matches plenty of the trends required for the County Hurdle. He is a five-year-old (nine of the past 12 winners were aged five or six), he's had six runs or more over hurdles (nine of the past 12 winners), and has won twice over hurdles (nine of the past 12 winners). He has also had at least two runs this season (10 of the past 12 winners). 

Gavin Cromwell's charge contested a Grade One on his return in December before shaping OK in a handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival next time out.

The angle here is based on the fact that Hello Neighbour would be a more attractive prospect if he were not so high in the weights, and I’d prefer to side with a contender a few pounds lower than his rating of 148. However, there’s the possibility of a 7lb claim that would bring him down the weights, and it’s an interesting jockey booking should it come to fruition. 

Eoin Staples is a young jockey who is going places, and when he and Cromwell team up, it’s worth taking note. Staples has had 80 rides for Cromwell this season, producing 14 winners, and an 18 per cent strike-rate. More eye-catching is that, had you backed the trainer/jockey combination since the start of the season, you would be £39.88 in profit to £1 level stakes. 

Given the season Cromwell has had, it’s clear that he has taken advantage of Staples' valuable claim, although it is not paramount that Staples is booked as victors have scored off similar ratings in recent renewals. 

I think Hello Neighbour will have come forward significantly for his first two runs and still represents good value at 25-1 — a price that can be taken, given this race is his only entry. 

I'm chancing a contender at 50-1 in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle. Karl Des Tourelleswasa horse I suggested following this season, but I don't think his chasing campaign has gone to plan. 

He ran in the Pertemps Final at last year’s Cheltenham Festival when finishing seventh. He was just a five-year-old then, and was set a difficult task for his age.

He finished fourth at Punchestown next time out, and was less than seven lengths behind Jeriko Du Reponet, which looks strong form.

He's had the required four runs over fences, but holds two entries in the hurdle races, so I'm hoping that is a sign he will return to hurdling here. The galloping nature of the New Course would certainly play to his stregnths, and I think he struggled to truly stay three miles last season.

Additionally, of the 82 runners trainer Philip Fenton has had in Ireland this season, 42 were ridden by Niall Moore. Given the relationship Moore and Fenton have, it could lead them down the path of the conditional jockeys’ race. 

Karl Des Tourelles fits plenty of the trends regarding age, weight and rating. He also has the benefit of course experience, and has had 14 starts under rules, despite being just six years old.

He’s available at a massive 50-1 with a couple of bookmakers, although even at the 40-1 freely available, I’d be more than willing to invest with the NRNB concession. 

Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase: O'MOORE PARK at a general 33-1.

The Cup Handicap Hurdle:  JINGKO BLUE at 16-1 generally (20-1 with Bet365).

Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase: RELIEVED OF DUTIES at 33-1 with Ladbrokes.

William Hill County Handicap Hurdle: HELLO NEIGHBOUR at a general 25-1.

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle: KARL DES TOURELLES at a general 50-1.