Cheltenham Festival: RaceiQ's essential clues for day one

Old Park Star Joined the RaceiQ “Full House Club” when winning by 18 lengths at Haydock last time. He clocked the top speed (35.84mph); secured the highest Jump Index score (8.2 out of 10); gained most lengths jumping (9.22); plus had the highest Finishing Speed Percentage.

The six-year-old attacked the last three hurdles at between 32.8mph and 34.47mph, plus won easing down, too, which the data does not recognise. The winning time was 3.8sec quicker than the 135-rated Brentford Hope managed when landing the handicap hurdle over the same trip 35 minutes earlier.

Old Park Star had also previously impressed when easily scoring by a dozen lengths at Cheltenham in December, when hitting 36.19mph and again jumping superbly before finishing strongly.

He polished off the final half mile in 52.80sec, which sits in the top ten fastest final half-miles at the course, at least over hurdles, from 2,315 runners in the RaceiQ database. 

Mighty Park is one of the great unknown quantities of the Festival, as he didn’t run in bumpers and has had only one run over hurdles.

That came in mid-January, when he tackled 15 rivals on deep ground in a maiden at Fairyhouse and waltzed home by 38 lengths after making all. The runners came home at wide intervals with the last horse finishing 36sec after the winner had crossed the line.

Mighty Park’s winning margin has prompted Willie Mullins to suggest “we’re in Faugheen territory” but that Fairyhouse contest, run in a time 28sec slower than standard, told us little about his championship credentials.

His Top Speed was a modest 31.53mph; he didn’t attack any hurdler quicker than 29.99mph (every other featured horse in this race has approached a hurdle faster than 32 mph) and the fastest furlong he clocked was 14.64sec. In addition, he got a Jump Index score of only 6.8, with his jumps at the fourth and fifth flights warranting scores of only 6.2 and 6.1.

When Kopek Des Bordes won the Supreme last year, admittedly on better ground, he clocked 36.43mph and dipped under 13sec when completing the 12th furlong (ten of his furlongs were quicker than 14.64sec). He did not approach any hurdle slower than 30.69mph, hitting more than 35mph two out, and none of his jumps up until the final flight got less than a Jump Index score of 7.

This is not to say Mighty Park, whose siblings include Might Bite, could be capable of clocking such figures. But a lot of guesswork is required whether he runs here, or in the Turners 24 hours later.

Lulamba is a class act but looks to be crying out for further and his jumping is a worry given he is such a short price.

He lost ground at each of the first nine fences in the Game Spirit last time and got a Jump Index score of only 6.4. Before that, at Sandown, he also gave away ground at the first four fences, while he surrendered an average of 5.87mph at each obstacle on his chasing bow at Exeter.

The first two fences in the Arkle arrive quickly and Lulamba’s time learning on the job has expired. 

The jury is still out as to whether 2m is his optimum trip, but the data is encouraging.

His wins over further have mostly been in races not run at an end-to-end gallop, reflected by his high Finishing Speed Percentages, and he coped with a funereal pace when winning over 2m 1f at Cheltenham last time. His final two-furlong time of 25.92sec is the fastest at Cheltenham in RaceiQ’s database from 2,318 runners.

He also clocked 36.53mph when landing the Turners’ last year – no other runner got above 35.82mph – and his career Jump Index of 7.8 also augurs well. No horse in the line-up has a quicker average recovery time, a rapid 0.39sec, when jumping.