Cheltenham Festival: RaceiQ's essential clues for day three

Bambino Fever was a brilliant winner of the Champion Bumper last year when fastest through each of the final four furlongs despite being pushed wide. 

She suffered a surprise defeat at the hands of Oldschool Outlaw (has since won again) on her hurdling bow but made no mistake last time when gaining more than 18 lengths with her jumping.

Bambino Fever’s jumping has come under scrutiny, but she has attacked four flights at 31.5mph or quicker and got an average score of 7.75 when negotiating obstacles at pace. Her Finishing Speed Percentage has been best every time she has run, and she appeals as the type to devour Cheltenham’s New Course. 

Teahupoo has run three times at Cheltenham and his Jump Index scores, marked out of 10, have got worse each time: 7.1, 6.9 and 6.1

His leaping was certainly a factor in him surrendering his Stayers’ Hurdle crown to Bob Olinger last year.

He lost an average of more than half a length to that rival at each of the dozen flights, and his efforts this season – he’s got marks of 6.9 and 6.7 – have also lacked some polish.

Teahupoo has new faces to overcome, including the British-trained trio of Kabral Du Mathan, Impose Toi and Ma Shantou. 

The data points to this trio all being much slicker jumpers than him, and Bob Olinger for that matter. Their respective career Jump Index scores are 8.1, 8.0 and 7.8.

Perhaps the best qualified among them is Ma Shantou, who is 3/3 at Cheltenham this season, achieving Jump Index scores of 8.2, 8.4 and 7.9. He was also strong at the finish when landing the Cleeve Hurdle last time, completing the final furlong 1.47sec quicker than Impose Toi, the Long Walk Hurdle hero. 

Ace Of Spades must be among the most improved jumpers in training. Last season he was routinely getting Jump Index scores of 6.4 or lower but this term he’s had four starts and only once got lower than an 8.

His last two leaps when pouncing from off the pace to win at Huntingdon last time were superb, gaining him individual scores of 9.1 and 9, plus gaining him five lengths. He didn’t surrender ground at any of the 12 flights.

The seven-year-old has also been seeing out his races strongly, with his Finishing Speed percentage being best in four of his past five starts. 

His odds have shrunk to 4-1, but it's unlikely anyone who studies the data are part of the gamble on him. He's had four races over fences and the one consistent feature has been jumping that lacks the Rice Krispies factor (snap, crackle and pop).

By all accounts, Nico De Boinville thought he might be an Arkle candidate at the start of last season but chasing was put on ice after an unconvincing debut effort at Sandown when he made several errors and was pulled up after making a complete mess at the last of the Railway Fences (lost more than 9mph and got a score of 3.5).

He resumed hurdling and ended the season finishing second in the Pertemps before winning at Punchestown.

Back over the larger obstacles this term, he got Jump Index scores of 6.2, at Kempton, and 6.1 at Wincanton, and they were followed by another ordinary display of leaping at Windsor (no scores given at the track) where he lost another six lengths. Lowlights have been a score of 3.4 at the final fence at Kempton, which were followed by a 3.4 and a paltry 2.0 at the first two fences at Wincanton. That's the kind of hat-trick no horse wants to achieve.

In races against more than one rival, he's jumped 44 fences and only once been best. And even in a match, he was outjumped at 13 of the 17 obstacles. And those toying with taking 4-1 should also know that he's lost ground at 42 of the 61 fences he has navigated.