Cheltenham: will these favourites be bankers or blowouts?

He looks a top-class prospect and sets a very good standard after his emphatic Haydock win.

Bidding to become the first horse to win the Festival curtain raiser on his first start in Grade One company since Shishkin won for the same yard six years ago, he has certainly earned his spot at the head of the market with his two dominant victories this winter, but he may need to take another step forward in what looks a very hot Supreme.

It’s hard to be sure of his exact opposition, but runaway Fairyhouse winner Mighty Park has shortened up for this over the past week, whilst I was really impressed with Talk The Talk’s attitude at Leopardstown and he is arguably unlucky not to be two from two in Grade One company.

Add to that El Cairos, Mydaddypaddy, Idaho Sun and Leader d’Allier and this could be a strong race, with plenty of untapped potential. I will be taking the favourite on at the current prices.

With the absence of State Man and Constitution Hill, this race has a real open look to it and, whilst I can see the angle for The New Lion, having won at the meeting last year, the jury is out as to whether he is a top-class two-miler and his form doesn’t entitle him to be as short as he is in any case.

Lossiemouth is also better over two and a half miles, but I still think she is good enough to land this in receipt of 7lb from the favourite. She comes alive at Cheltenham and I think this is where she will head – I find it hard to see Willie Mullins drawing a blank for this race, his only other hope Poniros would be a surprise winner.

The reliable Golden Ace and impressive Irish Champion Hurdle heroine Brighterdaysahead are also talented mares that can serve it up to the favourite.

Winner of the Triumph Hurdle two years ago and third in the Arkle last season, Majborough shortened up to a best-priced 8-11 from 6-4 for the day two feature after news emerged on Tuesday that Marine Nationale would miss the race.

That looks fully justifies based on his authoritative display at the Dublin Racing Festival, where he recorded a RaceiQ Jump Index of 9.5, seemingly transformed by the addition of cheekpieces, and a positive ride on very testing ground by Mark Walsh.

This race has been a bit of a graveyard for favourite backers in recent years. Although Energumene and Altior have justified their position as market leaders, there has been a long list of odds-on losers in this race, including the same yard’s 2-5 favourite El Fabiolo and 2-9 favourite Douvan.

Majborough’s mistake two out in last year’s Arkle hangs in the memory, but he was faultless last time and a performance near to that level should be enough here despite Il Etait Temps and L’Eau du Sud looking worthy challengers. He should prove very hard to beat baring a mishap.

Last year’s Champion Bumper winner has done very little wrong so far. Her only defeat remains her second to Oldschool Outlaw on her reappearance at Naas, and that horse has since won impressively to remain unbeaten for Gordon Elliott.

Bambino Fever then got back to winning ways in a maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse to cement her position as favourite for Thursday’s opener.

However, as a three-mile point-to-point winner (ex-pointers have won just two of the ten renewals) racing here on what is likely to be faster ground, could she be vulnerable to those with a more potent turn of foot?

This race is likely to attract a big field, with 47 runners still standing at the time of writing, including her Naas adversary. With a talented field of mares in opposition, several of which are open to any amount of improvement, this will be by far her most difficult test to date over hurdles - on just her third run in the sphere. She is as short as even-money with some firms and that looks too short.

Few horses can boast a record as good as Lossiemouth’s at Prestbury Park. Four from four at the track, three from three at The Festival, and two from two in this race, this year, she again heads the market for the Mares’ Hurdle, although the race has now moved to the New Course, with a further emphasis on stamina.

I still think she will line up in the Champion Hurdle, as a mare that is clearly good enough of competing in the two-mile championship hurdle event (trading at 11-4) should do, but should she line up here, I think she will be very hard to beat. The even-money NRNB with Sky Bet looks generous, as I struggle to see her going off odds-against in this, even with the talented Wodhooh in opposition.

The two met at Aintree last season and Gordon Elliott’s mare made Lossiemouth work for her win, but the reigning Mares’ hurdle winner was going away at the line and she has almost three lengths to find in what is effectively a home game for the daughter of Great Pretender.

Nine-year-old Teahupoo probably doesn’t get the credit he deserves for his consistency at the top level.

The winner of  this race in 2024 and the winner of 14 of his 21 starts, there is no sign age is catching up with him yet, as he was last seen defeating Bob Olinger (the only horse to finish ahead of him in last year’s Stayers’), by seven lengths in Leopardstown’s Christmas Hurdle.

He has now racked up three successive Grade One wins and although this looks a good renewal of the race, with several progressive younger horses such as Honesty Policy, Kabrak Du Mathan and Ma Shantou, they still need to improve.

He isn’t the sexiest price, but I think the top-rated runner can make up for last year’s defeat and regain his crown.

Another previous Festival winner returning is Dinoblue. The daughter of Doctor Dino was hugely impressive in landing this race 12 months ago and she has won three of her four races since, with her only defeat a creditable effort in second behind Found A Fifty over two miles in the Fortria on her reappearance.

She tops this on ratings and is sure to go close again, but this could be deeper than last year’s race with some really smart progressive types in it, including the novice July Flower who I’d be really interested in stepping up in trip from 2m1f (She is Grade One-placed over three miles).

Spindleberry, Panic Attack, Diva Luna and last year’s Arkle runner-up Only By Night add intrigue to a fascinating field.