Cheltenham Festival best bets: Alex Scott is predicting a French-trained winner

What a fantastic move for the Festival it was to replace the Grade One Golden Miller over the intermediate trip with a novices’ handicap to increase the competitiveness of the Arkle and the Broadway.

Last year’s Arkle winner Jango Baie would never have run in the race given the option over two and a half miles, and the same can surely be said of likely Arkle runners Romeo Coolio and Lulamba this year.

As a result of that change, this year’s Arkle, looks set to be very strong and I think there is tremendous value in Kargese’s current odds behind short-priced favourites Lulamba and Kopek Des Bordes.  

Whilst the latter has been the subject of positive reports and significant money this week, winning a strong Arkle off the back of one chase start would require one hell of a performance.

Meanwhile, Lulamba (like Kargese, was bred by Thierry Cypres) is three from three over fences and is hugely talented, but the fact he was beaten at the Festival last year is a nagging concern and the record of five-year-olds in the Arkle is pretty dreadful – 17 horses from that age group have run in the race since five-year-old Voy Por Ustedes won it 20 years ago, and they all have been beaten. Nicky Henderson’s novice also wanted every yard of the trip at Newbury last time and could be vulnerable to natural two-milers.

Romeo Coolio looks more of a stayer too, so that takes us to the natural two-mile chaser in the race, Kargese, who ran Jack Kennedy’s mount close at the Dublin Racing Festival last time.

She doesn’t carry the same level of hype or fanfare as those other contenders, but she is a fantastic jumper, with a RaceiQ Jump Index of 9.0, and has already run well at the Festival twice, finishing second to Majborough in the Triumph and then winning the County Hurdle last year. Although she has won just one of her three starts over fences, she has improved on each occasion and there could be more to come back on this track on slightly better ground getting 7lb from her male counterparts.

There is an obvious risk putting up Rich and Susannah Ricci’s fabulous grey mare for the day one feature because she is a short price to win the easier race on Thursday. However, I’m not sure it actually is that much easier, and in an open year, I think connections will take their chance in the Champion Hurdle – not least because the yard have virtually nothing else capable of winning it.

If she does line up, I would have her as favourite. Time and time again at the Festival we see repeat winners, and few horses like Cheltenham as much as Lossiemouth. She is a consistent performer, yet to finish outside of the first two when completing, and she comes alive at Prestbury Park.

Is she better over two and a half miles? Yes, I think so. But that doesn’t mean she can’t win an open Champion Hurdle, and I would have some reservations about whether or not The New Lion is quick enough for this in open company, despite his high finishing speed percentages over further.

The better ground here can see the three-time Festival heroine reverse form with Brighterdaysahead and land a fifth victory from as many starts at the course.

Ireland looks set to totally dominate this event yet again according to the betting and, whilst it is certainly hard to see this going to the home team, the layers seem to be underestimating the chances of a hugely talented French mare.

Six years have passed since the last French-trained winner at The Festival, where David Cottin rode Easysland to victory in this very race, and that same man can bring that run to an end this year - but this time as a trainer, courtesy of Karre D’As.

The Cottin-trained daughter of Balko is still only six, so is by far the youngest horse in the race, and having has just nine starts, she is still open to considerable improvement.

The only time she has finished out of the frame when completing was in Grade One company as a four-year-old where she broke down. Off the track for 18 months after that, she then bounced straight back with an emphatic win at Grade Three level and was in the lead of the race last time in a competitive Auteuil Grade Two until she unseated Charly Prichard at the huge rail ditch and fence.

She will not have to jump anything as severe as that in this race, and with the 162-rated Stumptown standing his ground, Karre D’As gets to compete off a lovely racing weight in receipt of 17lb from last year’s winner.

Likely to be ridden prominently, she could take some stopping if she lasts home and don’t be surprised if a top British-based jockey is booked to ride given the lack of home challengers, in which case I could see her shortening up considerably in the market.

This filly does not have the typical profile of a Champion Bumper winner, but she has some very solid form in the book where stamina has been key (often a key attribute to winning this race too). After winning two of her three starts in France, including her final one by eight lengths, she fetched an eye-watering €710,000 at Arqana in November and was sent into training with Dan Skelton.

Her only defeat came at Saint-Cloud in October where she finished just over a length behind Mondialito D’Huez. That horse is the best bumper performer in France and is now unbeaten in four starts having subsequently won the prestigious Group One AQPS bumper at Fontainebleau.

Four-year-olds have a poor record in this event, but very few actually run, and this talented daughter of Hunter’s Light receives well over a stone in weight for her powerful connections, with Harry Skelton set to ride. Those at the top of the market look too short for what they have actually achieved and this highly-regarded filly can outrun her odds at a big price.

I had a few quid on this horse for the Supreme earlier in the season, but with the same connections’ likely winner Narciso Has ruled out of this last week, Proactif is a worthy deputy and can continue Willie Mullins’ phenomenal record with French recruits in this race.

A hugely impressive winner by six lengths in a good time at Auteuil on his first start in September (the runner-up has also joined Mullins), he then beat the highly regarded Macho Man at Fairyhouse in January. He did have the run of the race that day, but he jumped much better than his stablemate and put the race to bed nicely.

There are exceptions to the rule, but stamina often comes to the fore in this race and I think as a son of Masked Marvel, he may just outstay the filly Selma De Vary and leading British hope Minella Study.

Eight of the past 11 winners of this started their career across the Channel and Mullins have won five of the past six renewals, whilst more crucially, six of the past eight winners had run no more than twice over hurdles. Another box ticked for Proactif - although he hasn’t yet contested a Graded race. I expert Mark Walsh to give him an uncomplicated ride and he should prove a tough horse to pass up the hill.

There is another bit of guesswork required here as Henry de Bromhead has kept July Flower in the Arkle as well as this race. However, she is a 40-1 chance for the two-mile novice event and this looks a more suitable target against her own sex over a more suitable trip.

I am keen to take market leader Dinoblue on at the current prices - no nine-year-old has ever won this race and, whilst the defending champion tops the pile on ratings, others are open to more improvement.

As with the Triumph on the New Course, an ability to last home is important and one mare that stays every yard of this trip and more, yet has had the class to be running well this season over shorter is July Flower.

She falls into the right age bracket and should get her ideal ground, whilst her jumping is a real weapon. She recorded an off the scale RaceiQ Jump Index of 9.6 last time behind Romeo Coolio and Irish Panther. She had also won her only two chase starts prior to that, including at this track at the November meeting.

I am surprised she is such a big price for this given her potential for improvement stepping back up in trip (she has been placed in a French Champion Hurdle over an extended 3m1f) and although she will need to step up again, she has very few negatives. Her form against geldings is another statistic in her favour based on previous renewals.