Cheltenham Gold Cup: who will win a blockbuster edition?

This year’s staying division have already provided us with rich entertainment.

The epic clash battle between Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File in the John Durkan got the ball rolling; then we had a pulsating King George VI Chase won by The Jukebox Man; a frantic Savills Chase and a compelling Irish Gold Cup.

Throw in Envoi Allen doing what Envoi Allen does every year at Down Royal, plus a sumptuous display by Grey Dawning in the Betfair Chase and it’s fair to say we’ve had a chocolate box with no soft centres. Oh, and if you are looking for that toffee that goes on and on, look no further than Haiti Couleurs.

And now, with a bit of luck, all the main characters from the individual episodes, are going to meet in what promises to be a blockbuster. Here’s a guide to those in contention and click here for Cheltenham Festival betting offers.

Official Rating: 166 Grade One wins: 1. Odds: 66-1. 

Noel Meade has had horses make the frame in the Gold Cup (Harbour Pilot on two occasions and Road To Respect on another) but it’s not been straightforward keeping Affordale Fury’s wheels on the road - his appearances have been limited in recent seasons – and his jumping usually lacks polish, so it is easy enough to look elsewhere. 

He was pulled up in the Irish Gold Cup last time after folding tamely, although he but can be forgiven that effort as he finished lame, having pulled a muscle in his hind leg. He had previously put up a clear career-best when making all in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, although the way he jumped violently out to his right that day was perturbing. 

Official Rating: 162. Grade One wins: 10. Odds: 50-1. 

The 12-year-old has been a wonderful ambassador for the sport and Henry De Bromhead is probably right when he says he is a crazy price. 

However, it is fanciful to think that the ten-time Grade One winner could sign off with a fourth Festival triumph on what will be his eighth successive run at the meeting. The trip looks a potential stumbling block for a speedy horse unproven beyond 3m, while you must journey back to 1969 to find the last of his age to take this prize. 

He will carry the good will of all, though, and his 132-day absence is no concern given his fine record when fresh. Overall, he’s won 17 of his 30 races, with his Festival record reading 11F3123. 

Official Rating: 174 Grade One wins: 5. Odds: 4-1. 

Owner JP McManus will have to pay a £25,000 supplementary fee to ensure the brilliant Irish Gold Cup winner gets the chance to pull off the double but may see that as a good omen. After all, he did the same 12 months ago and was vindicated when Inothewayurthinkn stormed to victory. 

It was puzzling that Fact To File was not entered in the first place, even if he looked betrayed by a lack of stamina in top 3m races a couple of times last season. Willie Mullins has never doubted the stamina of the 2024 Brown Advisory winner, for all that he was in his element when cruising home in the Ryanair Chase 12 months ago. 

Fact To File showed plenty of staying power at Leopardstown last time when he thumped a quality line-up after a well-run race on deep ground. He stopped the clock just short of 6min 30sec and had more in his tank, whereas last year’s Gold Cup, on better ground, was run in 6min 40sec. Cheltenham would be a stiffer track, but the clock lends weight to the theory he will stay. 

The nine-year-old is a superb jumper, plus blessed with a high cruising speed. It will be a surprise if he does not run, even if his owner also has Inothewayurthinkin, Spillane’s Tower and I Am Maximus in his ranks. 

Official Rating: 165 Grade One wins: 3. Odds: 50-1. 

He’s a big price for a horse who has twice mastered Galopin Des Champs on his way to successive Punchestown Gold Cup triumphs (in the spring of 2023 and 2024) but he ran only once last season, when fourth to Fact To File in the John Durkan, and his two runs this term, after a year off, have been lacklustre. 

The likelihood is that his best days are behind him, reflected by his peak rating of 171 slipping by 6lb, although it feels like the Festival owes him something after an agonising near-misses in the 2022 Coral Cup and 2023 Ultima. He’s usually jumps like a cat but unseated his rider in the 2024 Gold Cup, when an 8-1 chance. 

Official Rating: 158. Grade One wins: 0. Odds: 66-1. 

Has never finished worse than fourth in his eight previous Grade One assignments but has still yet to strike at the highest level. 

He probably ran as well as he has ever done when a keeping-on fourth under Sean Bowen in the Irish Gold Cup last time, when sporting a first-time tongue-tie, although he was rather ridden to pick up some pieces that day. 

The longer trip here is clearly worth a go, but it will be a big surprise if he makes it third time lucky at the meeting, having been third to Slade Steel in the 2024 Supreme, and only sixth in the Jack Richards Handicap off a mark of 150 last year. 

Official Rating: 172. Grade One wins: 5. Odds: 8-1. 

A big talent whose blemishes in the past are becoming something of a fading memory. He has been hard to fault since being unleashed beyond 2m, with his three efforts this season standing close inspection and tying form lines together. 

His Fan Club gained more followers after his thrilling comeback win in the John Durkan, at the expense of Fact To File, and he also played a big part in the King George, at Kempton on Boxing Day, when beaten a smidgeon into third behind The Jukebox Man and Banbridge. 

And last time out he put in another solid shift when splitting Fact To File and Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup at a track, Leopardstown, which will probably never show him to maximum advantage. 

All those efforts put the easy 2024 Arkle winner him firmly in the mix, but there has been talk of him possibly dropping back in trip for the Ryanair Chase. That would be a negative play, in my book, but if Rich Ricci, also the owner of Lossiemouth, is keener on pursuing the Mares Hurdle/Ryanair double, rather than the Champion Hurdle/Gold Cup double, then that is his prerogative. 

Official Rating: 172 Grade One wins: 12. Odds: 9-1. 

There is not much that has not already been said about this wonderful staying chaser, who seeks to become a rare three-time Gold Cup winner. A dozen of his 15 career wins have been at the highest level and if he finishes somewhere in the top four, then his prize-money earnings will soar beyond £2 million. 

But the signs are there to suggest his powers are ever so slightly on the wane. And in a deep year when there are a host of new kids on the block, that may leave him vulnerable. 

Everything looked stacked in his favour last year, but he came up short. And this term he’s been beaten in the Savills and Gold Cup, having previously been 7/7 over fences at Leopardstown. 

A fourth successive Irish Gold Cup looked on the cards for a long, but he did not have the legs to keep up with Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior in the closing stages. 

Willie Mullins reckons he will improve again for that outing and is toying with putting a pair of cheekpieces on him, but this once invincible force may need others to misfire if he is to regain his crown. 

Official Rating: 166. Grade One wins: 2. Odds: 16-1. 

There has been only one grey winner of the Gold Cup, the mighty Desert Orchid in 1989. 

The prospects of Grey Dawning emulating that titan appeared to take a dent with his defeat in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham in January, when he could finish only third behind Spillane’s Tower and L’Homme Presse, but there were mitigating circumstances, and he still looks to have all the attributes to give it a good go. 

Grey Dawning was easy to back before the Cotswold after Dan Skelton had intimated that it was a building block to March. His brother, Harry, sat off the leaders and when his partner made a mess of two out, when already a little out of his ground in a steadily-run race, quickly accepted defeat and let him come home in his own time. 

It was encouraging the way he came up the hill, and to my eye he had plenty left in his tank at the finish. He was trying to give the winner 6lb, too, and had been kicked by him down at the start. 

The silver lining for his supporters is that Grey Dawning did not have a “grueller” but that run would have kept him ticking over and he is entitled to be fresher than most, having previously breezed home in the Betfair Chase on his return. That was an admittedly ordinary renewal with Haiti Couleurs not giving his running, but he barely left the bridle. 

He is a strong traveller, usually jumps well, plus is proven in the Festival cauldron, scooping the final edition of the Turners’ Novice Chase two years ago. The official ratings put him in the equation and we know Skelton, closing in on his first trainers’ title, has few peers when readying one for the big day. 

Official Rating: 166. Grade One wins: 0. Odds: 9-1. 

A year on from landing the new-look National Hunt Chase, off a mark of just 135, the pride of Wales is a single-figure price to land the biggest Jump race of them all. 

He has not stood still in the interim, winning the Irish National, Welsh National and, on his most recent start, the Denman Chase at Newbury. He’s now won nine of his past dozen races and has come a long way since being beaten in his two point-to-point races and then spending a couple of years on the sidelines. 

It goes without saying that he has abundant stamina, but does this relentless galloper have the requisite speed? His record points to a series of “grinding” victories, with the fast time he clocked in the Welsh National being a red herring on account of the unusually quick going. 

It was encouraging he could win dropped back to 3m at Newbury last time, although the ground was desperate, and he was pretty much allowed to boss his three rivals. Moreover, L’Homme Presse, the runner-up, was coneding 2lb and, perhaps more significant, had a bad day at the office in the jumping department. 

Haiti Couleurs’ own jumping is generally sound without having a wow factor. It would not be a surprise if rivals pinched half a length off him here or there. 

On anything other than soft ground, he runs the risk of being taken on off his feet. And if the mud is flying, there are several others in the line-up who will not flinch. But you underestimate him, and regular rider Sean Bowen, at your peril. 

Official Rating: 167 Grade One wins: 1. Odds: 33-1. 

The 2024 Grand National winner was runner-up when defending his crown last year and must be the strongest stayer in training. He would surely have achieved even greater heights, too, but for his ordinary jumping technique. 

I Am Maximus surrenders multiple lengths over his fences every time, and we have not seen him in action at Cheltenham since his fourth to The Real Whacker in the Brown Advisory three years ago. 

Connections pencilled him in for a belated attempt at this after he split Affordale Fury and Galopin Des Champs in the Savills over Christmas but he’s since finished a distant fifth in the Irish Gold Cup (third successive defeat in the race) and his record in Grade One races over 3m or further reads 43P825. In the races he’s completed, he’s been beaten more than 90 lengths. 

I’m a member of his Fan Club but would not have him anywhere near this race. Instead, I'd be focusing purely on another tilt at the Grand National, where he will have an extra mile, lesser rivals and easier fences to contend with. 

Official Rating: 172 Grade One wins 2. Odds: 20-1. 

He took his form to another level when dishing out a six-length drubbing to Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup last year but has since been a sorry sight. 

He was relentless 12 months ago, despite being the lowest-rated winner (coming into the race) since Loird Windermere in 2014. The handicapper bumped his rating of 160 up to  176, but perhaps the then seven-year-old had his elastic band pulled too far that day. 

His heavy comeback defeat at Punchestown was perhaps predictable, but he barely went a yard in the Savills next time and he was out of contention when taking a weary fall at the final fence in the Irish Gold Cup on his latest start, albeit offering a bit more spark before departing. 

A feature of all his runs this year has been how friendless he has been in the betting, mixed jumping and an inability to see his race out. You need to take a big leap of faith to imagine him turning up in the form of 12 months ago. 

Official Rating: 167 Grade One wins: 2. Odds: 5-1. 

Nicky Henderson has been responsible for two of Britain’s five Gold Cup winners in the past 15 years and the betting suggests he’s got the home team’s No 1 contender in Jango Baie, who, at 7, is likely to be the youngest in the line-up. 

He’s an easy enough horse to admire, but a best price of 5-1 looks a bit stingy for a horse who was fourth in the King George VI Chase last time. Those who finished ahead of him are all trading at bigger odds, for instance, and I don’t make him any more likely to stay this longer trip than them, especially away from goodish ground. 

The King George was his first try over 3m, but the quick ground and steady tempo meant it was anything but a thorough test. The winning time was 5min 49sec, whereas the record time in the Gold Cup has been 6min 29sec, and a couple of recent renewals have been 7min examinations. 

The relative test of speed at Kempton was surely not a disadvantage for Jango Baie, who just about had the pace to win the Arkle over 2m last season and had been a smooth winner over 2m 5f on good ground at Ascot on his return. 

To digress for a moment, Desert Orchid (third) and Kicking King (second) ran in the Arkle before later going on to Gold Cup glory, while Best Mate and Kauto Star would have run it but for misfortune. 

Jango Baie's doubters can point to his defeats over 2m 4f at Sandown and Aintree either side of his Arkle triumph, although he lost on the bob in the former in a muddling affair, while at Aintree he came up a little short against rivals who had skipped Cheltenham. 

Recurring themes have been his accurate jumping and high Finishing Speed Percentages, but at this stage his price just does not entice me. 

Official Rating: 163. Grade One wins: 2. Odds: 14-1. 

There’s more than a hint of romance about Spillane’s Tower given he is trained by an amiable septuagenarian who trains a handful of horses. 

Jimmy Mangan has always swum with the minnows, accumulating only 173 winners in Ireland since starting training more than four decades ago. By contrast, Willie Mullins has trained more than 200 in each of the past four campaigns alone. 

But Mangan can beat the big fish given the right horse, with his two winners in Britain being Monty’s Pass, in the 2003 Grand National, and Spillane’s Tower in the 2026 Cotswold Chase. During the 23-year gap he's had the odd good one, such as Conna Castle and Whinstone Boy, but a decade had slipped by before Spillane’s Tower propelled him back into the big time. 

Has the eight-year-old got what it takes to upstage those housed in much more powerful yards? It’s not out of the question given he was a two-time Grade One winner as a novice who returned the following year to split Fact To File and Galopin Des Champs. That was a belting run that hinted he could sit comfortably at the top table. 

However, his subsequent journey has not gone smoothly, and he was belatedly getting back to winning ways in the Cotswold Chase last time, when Jack Kennedy was in the plate. That was much more like it, albeit he was getting 6lb from his main rivals and the race was a little unsatisfactory. 

No Cotswold winner has followed up in the Gold Cup since Looks Like Trouble, in 2000, although 2020 winner Santini subsequently rattled the crossbar. Spillane’s Tower has earned his chance, but others are more compelling. 

Official Rating: 168. Grade One wins: 2. Odds: 6-1. 

Simply The Best? Wow? The One And Only? We will never know what walk out music The Jukebox Man would choose for himself, but it is fair to say he’s had his rivals Spinning Around since being sent over fences. 

Four runs over the bigger obstacles have yielded four wins for the eight-year-old, with two of them being at the highest grade. He won the Kauto Star at Kempton as a novice in 2024 and returned, 12 months later, to edge home in a pulsating King George VI Chase. 

Flared nostrils separated the protagonists in the latter, but The Jukebox Man dug deep to edge out Banbridge, Gaelic Warrior and Jango Baie. You could argue that being ridden up near the pace gave him a positional advantage in a steadily-run race, but that would be churlish. 

His previous wins had been more about style than substance, but this was something else. The Harry Redknapp-owned gelding showed about a stone of improvement in one chunk. 

It’s possible that he could have even more in his locker, too, when you consider that he’s had only nine runs over hurdles and fences. His inexperience would usually be a niggle, but he’s been an athletic jumper since day one and has already proven himself in the fast lane. For what it is worth, Coneygree won the Gold Cup as a novice in 2015 after only three runs over fences. 

Before switching to chasing, The Jukebox Man won his only point-to-point before establishing himself as among the best staying novice hurdlers of the 2023-24 season, finishing runner-up at Cheltenham and Aintree. His ability to stay 3m 2f is an unknown but he’s hinted it will be within his range. 

There are 15 other entries in the Gold Cup, but none are shorter than 50-1 in the betting. We haven’t had a winner returned bigger than 25-1 since Norton’s Coin’s fairytale triumph at 100-1 in 1990. 

The majority seem unlikely to run, although MONTY’S STAR, LECKY WATSON and GRANGECLARE WEST would all be definite maybes, for all that they ended up being supporting players in the Irish Gold Cup. The pick of them looks the first-named, who outrun his odds at Leopardstown and chased home Fact To File at this meeting two years ago. 

BANBRIDGE would warrant more than a second look if turning out after narrowly failing to retain his King George crown, but he ran poorly in the Gold Cup last year and Joseph O’Brien says he will not run anywhere at the meeting if the ground is on the soft side. Aintree seems a more likely destination for him. 

Willie Mullins has said he is running out of time to get NICK ROCKETT to the race (he has not run since landing the Grand National last year), while SPINDLEBERRY (Mares’ Chase), HEART WOOD (Ryanair), MYRETOWN (handicaps) and HANDSTANDS (Grand National) all have alternative options. 

Gordon Elliott has said STELLAR STORY will only run if the ground is soft (would make little appeal in any case) and is 50/50 about running THREE CARD BRAG, who looks more a National type. We have yet to see IMPAIRE ET PASSE in action this term, while L’HOMME PRESSE’s window has passed. GOLD TWEET and REPLENDENT GLORY simply do not look good enough. 

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To follow nearer the time.