Five Irish-trained dark horses to follow at the Festival

A talented middle-distance horse on the Flat for Roger Varian, Munsif ran well on his hurdling bow in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival, when he travelled into his race well before lack of a recent run probably took its toll.  

Fifth behind Proactif and Macho Man – both towards the top of the market in the Triumph Hurdle – at Fairyhouse in January, he was keener than ideal through the early part of the rated juveniles’ hurdle at Naas last time, but he made nice progress in the home straight before his early exertions probably took their toll on the run up the hill, and he just kept on to take third place.

That Naas race has been a remarkably good pointer to the Fred Winter Hurdle in the past.  Band Of Outlaws, Aramax and Brazil won both races, while Jazzy Matty and Byker finished fourth and third respectively in the Naas race in 2023 before finishing first and second respectively in the Fred Winter Hurdle.

Charles Byrnes trained Byker, and there is every chance that he has had the Fred Winter in mind for Munsif for a while.  Out of a half-sister to Oaks and King George winner Taghrooda, a handicap rating of 126, 5lb higher than his Irish mark, is workable.  A 93-rated horse on the Flat, he has the potential to go higher than 126 over hurdles.

Iceberg Theory has been making nice progress over fences since he made his chasing debut at Wexford last March.  A staying-on second in that beginners’ chase run over 3m1f, he didn’t run after that until he made his debut this season in another beginners’ chase at Limerick over 2m6f, which he won by two lengths.

He got stronger as the race progressed that day, he appreciated every yard of the trip, possibly helped by the runner-up idling and making a mistake at the last. But the first two finished clear of their rivals, and the runner-up, Boston Rover, won his next three and reached a rating of 134.

Iceberg Theory then went to Cork in November and won a 2m5f handicap chase off a mark of 120.  Again, he stayed on strongly and he left the impression that he would be even better when he stepped up in distance.  And again, the runner-up O’Toole added ballast to the form when he won the good handicap chase at Leopardstown on Monday on just his second run since.

Iceberg Theory hasn’t run again since then, but his trainer Paul Nolan reported him to be in good form on Tuesday after he had a winner at Leopardstown.

A British handicap rating of 133, 4lb higher than his Irish mark, is workable for the son of Flemensfirth, he should appreciate the ground and the step up in trip and, a seven-year-old who has raced just three times over fences, he has the potential to progress again.

Poniros was a 100-1 shot when he won the Triumph Hurdle last year on his hurdling bow, but he battled on strongly to get up and win by a neck, and he had to race towards the far side of Lulamba and East India Dock up the run-in, away from the favoured stands rail.

While he had to give best to Lulamba next time it the Champion Four-Year-Old Hurdle at Punchestown, he wasn’t beaten far, the winning distance accentuated by a mistake at the final flight, and he confirmed that his Triumph Hurdle win was no fluke, that he belonged in that grade.

It can be difficult for the previous year’s juvenile hurdlers when they have to step into open company, but it is interesting that Willie Mullins delayed Poniros’ return until the new year, as he did with Lossiemouth two seasons ago, when she went three for three through that season. 

Poniros retuned in the Irish Champion Hurdle, in which he kept on well through the final furlong to pick up third place behind Brighterdaysahead and Lossiemouth.

He should come on for that run, his first run since Royal Ascot and, a 91-rated horse on the Flat who is one for one at Cheltenham, he could outrun his odds.

Slade Steel hasn’t won yet in five attempts over fences, but there is mitigation.  For starters, he has finished second in four of those five races, and he was brought down in the other.

He finished second in each of his two chases last season, behind Better Days Ahead and Lecky Watson respectively, who finished third and first respectively in last year’s Brown Advisory Chase.

This season, two of his three runs have been on soft to heavy ground, and he was travelling well in the other race at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve, on yielding to soft ground, when he was brought down at the fourth last fence.

Then last time at Navan, he travelled like the most likely winner on the approach to the second last fence, but it appeared that three miles on soft to heavy ground and up the hill at Navan just stretched his stamina beyond its limit.

He is a classy horse, the 2024 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner.  He is one for one at Cheltenham, and there should be more to come from him over fences.  He should appreciate the return to Cheltenham and the return to better ground and to the intermediate trip.  He has a British handicap rating of 146, which is 3lb higher than his Irish rating, but it is 5lb lower than his rating over hurdles and that mark could under-rate his ability.

Gordon Elliott has to be your starting point in the Martin Pipe Hurdle, given his association with the man and with the race, and given that he has trained the last two winners of the race and four of the last nine.

He Can’t Dance could be the pick of the Cullentra horses in the race this year.  The Gigginstown House horse hasn’t won yet over hurdles but, winner of his only point-to-point and winner of his bumper on his first run under Rules, has been progressing steadily over hurdles.

He stayed on well to finish a close-up third in a 2m6f maiden hurdle at Navan in January, a race that has been working out well.  The runner-up Court Compliance was impressive in winning his maiden at Punchestown next time, and the fourth horse, Melbourne Shamrock, won the Naas Pertemps qualifier next time off a mark of 121, and has been given a mark of 132 for the Pertemps Final.

Out of a half-sister to Master Minded, He Can’t Dance has been given a British rating of 129, which is just 4lb higher than the Irish mark off which he finished third in the valuable Race And Stay Handicap Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival.  The front two kicked from the front that day, but he stuck to his task well to take third place.

That was his fifth run over hurdles, which is ideal and, in a race in which novices have prevailed eight times in the last 12 years, he has a lovely profile for the race. And, given that he is trained by Gordon Elliott, you can be sure that he will have the assistance of a talented conditional rider, which is a big asset in this race.