The 2026 Cheltenham Festival: RaceiQ’s essential clues

Old Park Star Joined the RaceiQ “Full House Club” when winning by 18 lengths at Haydock last time. He clocked the top speed (35.84mph); secured the highest Jump Index score (8.2 out of 10); gained most lengths jumping (9.22); plus had the highest Finishing Speed Percentage.

The six-year-old attacked the last three hurdles at between 32.8mph and 34.47mph, plus won easing down, too, which the data does not recognise. The winning time was 3.8sec quicker than the 135-rated Brentford Hope managed when landing the handicap hurdle over the same trip 35 minutes earlier.

Old Park Star had also previously impressed when easily scoring by a dozen lengths at Cheltenham in December, when hitting 36.19mph and again jumping superbly before finishing strongly.

He polished off the final half mile in 52.80sec, which sits in the top ten fastest final half-miles at the course, at least over hurdles, from 2,315 runners in the RaceiQ database. 

Mighty Park is one of the great unknown quantities of the Festival, as he didn’t run in bumpers and has had only one run over hurdles.

That came in mid-January, when he tackled 15 rivals on deep ground in a maiden at Fairyhouse and waltzed home by 38 lengths after making all. The runners came home at wide intervals with the last horse finishing 36sec after the winner had crossed the line.

Mighty Park’s winning margin has prompted Willie Mullins to suggest “we’re in Faugheen territory” but that Fairyhouse contest, run in a time 28sec slower than standard, told us little about his championship credentials.

His Top Speed was a modest 31.53mph; he didn’t attack any hurdler higher than 29.99mph (every other featured horse in this race has approached a hurdle faster than 32 mph) and the fastest furlong he clocked was 14.64sec. In addition, he got a Jump Index score of only 6.8, with his jumps at the fourth and fifth flights warranting scores of only 6.2 and 6.1.

When Kopek Des Bordes won the Supreme last year, admittedly on better ground, he clocked 36.43mph and dipped under 13sec when completing the 12th furlong (ten of his furlongs were quicker than 14.64sec). He did not approach any hurdle slower than 30.69mph, hitting more than 35mph two out, and none of his jumps up until the final flight got less than a Jump Index score of 7.

This is not to say Mighty Park, whose siblings include Might Bite, could be capable of clocking such figures. But a lot of guesswork is required whether he runs here, or iun the Turners 24 hours later.. 

Lulamba is a class act but looks to be crying out for further and his jumping is a worry given he is such a short price.

He lost ground at each of the first nine fences in the Game Spirit last time and got a Jump Index score of only 6.4. Before that, at Sandown, he also gave away ground at the first four fences, while he surrendered an average of 5.87mph at each obstacle on his chasing bow at Exeter.

The first two fences in the Arkle arrive quickly and Lulamba’s time learning on the job has expired. 

The jury is still out as to whether 2m is his optimum trip, but the data is encouraging.

His wins over further have mostly been in races not run at an end-to-end gallop, reflected by his high Finishing Speed Percentages, and he coped with a funereal pace when winning over 2m 1f at Cheltenham last time. His final two-furlong time of 25.92sec is the fastest at Cheltenham in RaceiQ’s database from 2,318 runners.

He also clocked 36.53mph when landing the Turners’ last year – no other runner got above 35.82mph – and his career Jump Index of 7.8 also augurs well. No horse in the line-up has a quicker average recovery time, a rapid 0.39sec, when jumping. 

The dashing grey has won each of his three races over hurdles, with his jumping being exemplary by any standards, let alone for a novice.

He got a Jump Index score of 8.1 out of 10 when winning over course and distance in November; was awarded an 8.4 next time at Sandown and then got a whopping 9.1 in the Challow at Newbury.

None of the leading players in the field has attacked a hurdle quicker than him  (35.44mph) or matched his Top Speed of 36.41mph. His final half-mile time of 51.81sec is the second fastest final half mile over obstacles at Newbury in the RaceiQ database from 1,286 runners.

There was no data for his recent gallop with stablemate Tutti Quanti at Kempton but the broad smile of Paul Nicholls afterwards also warranted a 10/10. 

Oscars Brother is a leading fancy for the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase after winning his past three races,but he is surely going to have to jump better to make an impact in this better grade.

His past three Jump Index scores have been 5.2, 7 and 4.9. He’s surrendered about 23 lengths with his jumping in those contests.

Majborough got a Jump Index score of 9.5 and gained 16.24 lengths with his impeccable leaping when running his rivals ragged in first-time cheekpieces in the Dublin Chase at Leopardstown last time.

The data tells us that he’s always been swift at getting from A to B over fences, regardless of him throwing in the odd scruffy leap. Unlike in gymnastics, diving or ice skating, RaceiQ does not give marks for artistic impression. A horse could jump over a fence backwards and it would not matter.

Majborough’s career Jump Index score is a glowing 8.9 out of 10 and is based around a tremendous amount of science. Using your eyes is essential when assessing the form, but the data fills in gaps that are impossible to see.

The RaceiQ metrics are built off detailed GPS tracking data that is collected by two trackers on each horse at a rate of 18 data points per second.

This tells us the time a horse spends in the Jumping Envelope (30 metres before and after the fence); Entry Speed; Exit Speed; Speed Recovery Time (how long it takes the horse after landing from a jump to reach the post-jump average speed of the field); and Speed Lost (the difference in a horse’s speed from entering the Jumping Envelope to landing after jumping a fence). 

Lengths Gained Jumping reveals the lengths gained (or lost) by a horse throughout the Jumping Envelope, while Cumulative Lengths Gained reflects a rolling summation of the lengths gained across all obstacles. The Jump Index is a score, out of 10, quantifying the efficiency, speed and fluency of the horse’s jump over each obstacle.

The shortcut, then, is the overall Jump Index score, which puts all the metrics under one umbrella. Majborough’s seven individual scores in his chase races have been 9.0, 9.6, 7.8, 7.9, 9, 9.1 and 9.5. That’s gold medal territory. 

Majborough has jumped best of the whole field at no fewer than 44 of the 76 of the fences he has tackled. In other words, he’s been quickest to navigate the Jumping Envelope almost 58% of the time, whereas his 38 rivals have collectively been swiftest about 42%.

He has gained ground with his jumping in all his races over fences, with his accumulative gain being about 58 lengths. The bad news for him is that only a smidgeon of that came in the Arkle last year. 

His errors at the second fence and two out in that contest were the worst of his career (they merited scores of 6.2 and 5.6), yet he still almost won. He lost more than 6mph each time, whereas last time he surrendered an average of only 3.55mph at each fence.

The question he has got to answer is whether those errors were a Cheltenham one-off, a case of wrong time at the wrong place. He’s odds-on after the defection of Marine Nationale.

His supporters should take encouragement from the fact that he jumped well at most of the fences, and that he swiped seven lengths when landing the Triumph Hurdle 12 months earlier. It would certainly be premature to suggest the challenges of the track are beyond him. 

Bambino Fever was a brilliant winner of the Champion Bumper last year when fastest through each of the final four furlongs despite being pushed wide. 

She suffered a surprise defeat at the hands of Oldschool Outlaw (has since won again) on her hurdling bow but made no mistake last time when gaining more than 18 lengths with her jumping.

Bambino Fever’s jumping has come under scrutiny, but she has attacked four flights at 31.5mph or quicker and got an average score of 7.75 when negotiating obstacles at pace. Her Finishing Speed Percentage has been best every time she has run, and she appeals as the type to devour Cheltenham’s New Course. 

Teahupoo has run three times at Cheltenham and his Jump Index scores, marked out of 10, have got worse each time: 7.1, 6.9 and 6.1

His leaping was certainly a factor in him surrendering his Stayers’ Hurdle crown last year.

He lost an average of more than half a length to that rival at each of the dozen flights, and his efforts this season – he’s got marks of 6.9 and 6.7 – have also lacked some polish.

Teahupoo has new faces to overcome, including the British-trained trio of Kabral Du Mathan, Impose Toi and Ma Shantou. 

The data points to this trio all being much slicker jumpers than him, and Bob Olinger for that matter. Their respective career Jump Index scores are 8.1, 8.0 and 7.8.

Perhaps the best qualified among them is Ma Shantou, who is 3/3 at Cheltenham this season, achieving Jump Index scores of 8.2, 8.4 and 7.9. He was also strong at the finish when landing the Cleeve Hurdle last time, completing the final furlong 1.47sec quicker than Impose Toi, the Long Walk Hurdle hero. 

Ace Of Spades most be among the most improved jumpers in training. Last season he was routinely getting Jump Index scores of 6.4 or lower but this term he’s had four starts and only once got lower than an 8.

His last two leaps when pouncing from off the pace to win at Huntingdon last time were superb, gaining him individual scores of 9.1 and 9, plus gaining him five lengths. He didn’t surrender ground at any of the 12 flights.

The seven-year-old has also been seeing out his races strongly, with his Finishing Speed percentage being best in four of his past five starts. 

We have no data for his hurdling debut success in France in September, but he has created quite an impression on his two British starts, winning easily at Kempton before following up on Trials Day at Cheltenham.

A feature of his Kempton performance was his jumping – he jumped best at half of the eight flights and gained more than 11 lengths – and he was also efficient in that department at Cheltenham. However, the most striking element of his latest success was the speed he showed.

They could not go fast enough for him in the first half of the contest and consequently he was keen, tugging at Harry Skelton to go faster. The jockey resisted the demand and counted to well beyond ten before finally letting go off the handbrake up the home straight.

Maestro Conti needed no second invitation to quicken up smartly, nudging 37mph in the 14th furlong. And despite his exuberant nature, on sapping ground, he completed the final half mile at least 1sec quicker than some smart opposition.

The overall winning time compares favourably with previous winners of the race, including Defi Du Seuil, Sir Gino and East India Dock, and the form got a boost when La Luna Artista, who finished fifth in receipt of 10lb, subsequently stormed home in the Adonis Hurdle. 

Panic Attack has been a revelation this season, winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup, Coral Gold Trophy and a Listed event for mares.  She’s unbeaten in four chases for her current yard and her jumping has been electric.

She’s gained almost 25 lengths per race in her past two starts and her career Jump Index is 7.9. Dinoblue is the one to beat on official ratings, but Panic Attack has had a lot less racing than her over fences and is the stronger stayer. Her Finishing Speed Percentage has been best in her past five races.