Lydia Hislop's Tuesday Cheltenham tips: Stick with Iroko

This is a deep edition with a strong pace pretty much guaranteed. For the former reason alone, that made unattractive the 2/1 about impressive Haydock winner Old Park Star, hence his half-point drift at the time of writing. Otherwise, there is little to dislike about the fluent-jumping favourite, bidding to become Nicky Henderson’s sixth winner of this race.

Mighty Park has drifted, too, marginally deposed as second favourite presumably as concerns about his once-raced profile – when gifted the lead at flag-fall and unchallenged at all hurdles, albeit setting a sound pace – and perhaps his stamina-steeped dam’s family on ground that won’t be anything like as testing at the heavy he encountered at Fairyhouse.

Instead, this column’s ante-post selection TALK THE TALK has contracted in the betting. Yet unlike jockey JJ Slevin, I’m not dismissive of those holding jumping concerns.

Was it the slower pace and heavy ground that enabled a clear round at the Dublin Racing Festival as compared to his naïve display there over Christmas, resulting in a last-flight crumple rather than victory? Or has he just learned his trade better? I’m hoping it’s the latter because his ability to pick up decent rivals from a poor position last time marked him out as a smart youngster.

Keep any eye on novices representing Team Mullins on Day One in case it gives credence to the theory they were one run behind schedule in mid-winter, although Leader D’Allier did have more grounding in French bumpers than did Mighty Park in a single Point-to-Point. Paul Townend’s mount is unbeaten in the tongue-tie. 

El Cairos has pace but may not be straightforward and seems possessed by final-flight phobia, albeit Jack Kennedy will no doubt apply his mind to the problem. It was notable Dan Skelton was strangely undeterred by Mydaddypaddy’s Aintree defeat. The quality on show makes long-odds each-way or place shouts unattractive but expect Eachtotheirown to out-run 50/1.

A classic Arkle set-up: a future Queen Mum prospect facing off against a future King George prospect, replete with the contrasting run-style approach those profiles imply. It’s hardly surprising this pair have been flip-flopping in the betting in recent days.

Whilst Kopek Des Bordes will seek to go faster, Lulamba will lumber over the two rapid pairs of fences in the early stages and likely lose any hope of a prominent pitch before the fifth.

Equally, on merely his second start over fences, the former’s inexperience leaves him vulnerable to a chance-ending error whereas, if the latter has recovered position to hailing distance once turning for home, he’ll strike fear into the hearts of those ahead.

The absence of Irish Panther – directed towards a more ambitious tilt at Wednesday’s Champion Chase – makes life easier on the lead for Kargese, the mare who’s taken well to fences and will attempt to dominate (even though rider Danny Mullins tried to argue on Monday’s Road To Cheltenham show that’s not a given). She’ll have a target on her back for whichever of the Big Two is chasing her down.

Your guess is as good as mine.

Whilst mildly unnerved that Mark Walsh’s booking for Jagwar suggests that last year’s Plate winner, rather than his stablemate, is considered their first string by co-trainers Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero, I’m sticking with IROKO.

Despite finishing fourth in last year’s Grand National – or, rather, because of – he hasn’t often encountered the set of circumstances that suit him best: namely, three miles post Aintree’s weight-allocation process.

He was second to future Gold Cup winner Inowthewayurthinkin in a Grade One over this trip as a novice almost two years ago and shaped well against Gold Cup contender Grey Dawning at Kelso last March. Otherwise, he’s done much of his recent racing at a trip shy of what’s required – albeit that heightens confidence in his jumping for this task.

Jagwar must prove his stamina and remains a scrappy jumper. First-time cheekpieces to help him hold an early pitch, combined with a fallen mark, make Hyland interesting, but they are unlikely to unlearn bad jumping habits from Johnnywho. Leave Of Absence ran creditably in the Denman Chase last time and is worth considering if you fancy a shout at a longer price.

It’s been Ruby Walsh’s contention on Road To Cheltenham for two seasons that Lossiemouth lacks the early pace for top-class two-mile hurdling. Meanwhile, fans have understandably clamoured for her presence in the discipline’s blue riband event rather than her sights set lower in the mares’ equivalent over half a mile further.

Now, following her final two pieces of work in cheekpieces, Willie Mullins believes she’s “back to where she used to be”. “That’s the Lossiemouth that I know,” he told Fran Berry in an HRI interview, distributed on social media.

Meanwhile, racing manager Joe Chambers told Nick Luck Daily podcast listeners last week that “a physical reason” was found for her Irish Champion Hurdle performance “which has been taken care of” and referred to owner Rich Ricci’s allusions to the mare having been treated for back issues in the past.

“Everybody would agree she’s better over two-and-a-half miles,” Chambers, however, concluded. And there’s the rub. These are cheekpieces in a horserace, not water at a wedding in Cana. Perhaps they will enable a famously genuine mare to sharpen up over the first two furlongs but, as Ruby also pointed out, “it could work, or it could make her over-race and go the other way”.

At 2/1, this is an experiment I can sit out.

Meanwhile, we now have a third reason for Brighterdaysahead underperforming at two previous Festivals. After misfiring tactics in a slowly run race when conceding weight to a future Champion Hurdler in the 2024 Dawn Run and a knee issue meaning she was never going in this race last year, step forward the local digs.

This year, Gordon Elliott is stabling his mare at Olly Murphy’s yard. For me, it’s one excuse too many. Although if Patrick Mullins lets Anzadam rock from the front – or is given no choice about it – she could be left in pole position. One to watch in-running.

Titleholder Golden Ace has the least self-generated black marks against her. Of all four principals, she is most the likely to run her race. The flaw is peak form a long below the other two mares and without the potential upside of the deposed ante-post favourite, whom she was about to challenge when he departed at the second last in the Fighting Fifth.  

So, I’m going to close my eyes and take 3/1 about THE NEW LION. His jumping remains a worry, having been chancy over the final two flights when winning last term’s Turners Novices’ Hurdle and hardly convincing when show-jumped around the New Course by Harry Skelton in January. But he’s the only contender yet to lay down all his cards and we’re getting a price to see them.

He’s not big and it’s not clever but MADARA remains the obvious choice here. His form in this track’s feature handicaps in November and December of last season from similar marks give him an obvious chance. Subsequently sidelined with injury, he caught the eye in no uncertain terms at Kempton last time. The reapplication of cheekpieces is the cherry on top.

However, I’m also inclined to have an each-way saver on MIDNIGHT IT IS, who shaped like he’d love this step up in trip when third in last year’s Grand Annual, meeting traffic late on. Admittedly, we must trust in Gavin Cromwell snapping back to form after a largely below-average season but at 20/1 I’m prepared to give that a whirl.

Two against the field here. Last year’s Pertemps Hurdle fifth ONE BIG BANG made a bright start to his chasing career here in November, finishing second to unenthusiastic jumper (cheekpieces applied) Wade Out.

The selection has since won a match at Southwell and acquitted himself with credit over too sharp a trip at Doncaster. He looks on a good mark for his astute trainer James Owen.

My other suggestion is more of a flyer and requires us again to ignore current yard form. It’s HOLOKEA, who’s snuck into this at the foot of the weights and is best approached each-way - perhaps on the Tote - on the day.

I loved his run against Zertakt here in December when shaping like a thorough stayer and was devastated when, after jumping with polish, he was out-speeded over three-and-a-half miles on his penultimate start – not a contradiction in terms at Windsor. We’ve got to forgive a poor run at Haydock last time but that’s a single blip in an otherwise ultra-consistent season.