Betfred Derby: runner-by-runner guide and tip

Not many horses finish second in the Dante, a race widely regarded as the leading trial for the Derby, and are still 25-1 for the Premier Classic, but does that perhaps shows the strength, or lack of, in this year’s York Group Two?

His overall form is good, without being exceptional, but he is yet to strike in four attempts at Group level since his maiden win in August. His tendency to be slowly away is also a worry.

He did, however, give Bow Echo something to at least think about in the Royal Lodge, so too Hawk Mountain when finishing second to him in the Futurity, over two lengths in front of Derby favourite Benvenuto Cellini, who finished third.

He is a half-brother to last year’s winner Lambourn and, based on the way he handled the ground at Doncaster in October, any rain in Surrey this week should help his cause.

Rated just 83, he looks out of his depth here and is yet to win in three starts. One cause for optimism is that he has improved with each start and has appreciated an increase in distance on each occasion.

Owner Julie Wood will be hoping for better luck than she had with her last Derby runner, Voyage, who was first past the post ahead of City Of Troy two years ago, but unseated Pat Dobbs on leaving the stalls.

Amo Racing’s 1.1m guineas purchase has been steadily backed over the past seven days since galloping at Epsom last week. Charlie Johnston’s yard are in good form, too, and the Middleham handler saddled Lazy Griff to finish second 12 months ago.

Three from four, Ancient Egypt’s only defeat came in the Royal Lodge on his final start last term. He reappeared with a stylish win over ten furlongs at Newmarket when last seen and this stronger test of stamina could see him to even better effect.

One niggle is that he is unraced on anything but good to firm ground, and the forecast looks far from dry.

Andrew Balding has a leading contender for the world’s most famous Flat race courtesy of Dante winner Item but is unlikely to be winning it with A Taste Of Glory.

Rated 84, he finished last of six in the Lingfield Derby Trial when last seen and also failed to beat a rival on his only previous attempt at Group level when tenth behind Pierre Bonnard in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud.

He showed a good attitude to win a handicap in between those races, but this looks a bridge much too far.

“Bought with this race in mind” by his owner/trainer, the son of Japan has experienced the undulations at Epsom on two occasions, having finished third in the Listed Blue Riband Trial here in April, and then when taking in a serious piece of work at the Betfred Derby Festival gallops morning last week.

He was last seen finishing third in the Lingfield Derby Trial, almost seven lengths behind the re-opposing duo Maltese Cross and Bay Of Brilliance, so has significant work to do. He is unraced on ground slower than good.

A neck second to Maltese Cross at Lingfield when last seen, he is a fascinating contender and connections will be buoyed by the fact that the ground at Epsom should be significantly slower than on that occasion.

He had previously won a Goodwood novice on soft ground before bolting up to win by eight and a half lengths at Redcar on good to soft. Both of those runs came as a two-year-old and it is not unreasonable to think he can take a step forward from his latest outing, which will be needed.

Ballydoyle’s beautifully-bred, huge-striding colt has cemented his position as the leading contender for the Premier Classic in recent weeks and ran out an emphatic four and a half-length winner of the Chester Vase last time out, a race used as a springboard to Derby glory by stablemate Lambourn last year.

That race was his first since finishing third in the Futurity Trophy last autumn and his first beyond a mile, so he is totally unexposed at the trip and his task is made easier by equally impressive Chester winner Constitution River successfully heading to the Prix du Jockey Club instead of here.

However, main market rival Water To Wine was a non-runner at Chester, so the strength of the race can be questioned (he won at odds of 2-9), plus he came unstuck on testing ground last year at Doncaster, albeit over what was probably an inadequate trip even at that stage. He will need to take another step forward but rates a big player.

Any Aidan O’Brien-trained son of Derby winner Camelot out of a mare by Derby winner Sea The Stars has to be taken seriously for this and Christmas Day has solid claims on strict form lines having landed the Ballysax in April ahead of stablemates Endorsement and Pierre Bonnard, plus subsequent trial winner James J Braddock.

It has been ten years since the Ballysax winner followed up at Epsom, with Harzand landing the double in 2016 but it is big odds on that happening again this year after Christmas Day was comfortably beaten in the Dante last time, albeit he still finished a creditable third

His das already produced a Stakes winner over a mile and a half, so this step up in trip looks likely to suit, but it is hard to see him reversing the four and a half margin back to Item and looks likely to be the third or fourth string for the yard at best.

Three from three, Item is undoubtedly a leading contender and bids to give Andrew Balding a second Epsom Classic, 23 years on from Casual Look’s Oaks victory under Martin Dwyer.

He could not have been more impressive so far, winning by three and a half lengths on debut at Kempton in September, following up by the same margin at Bath later that month, and then reappearing with a comfortably success in the Dante on his reappearance.

No fewer than 11 colts have followed up victory on the Knavesmire with victory at Epsom, with Desert Crown the last to do so four years ago.

Balding’s previous Dante victor have finished sixth (Bonfir, 2012) and fifth (The Foxes, 2023) in the big one, and it would be a surprise should this son of Frankel not at least fare best of the trio. Quickend up well from the reat at York doing his best work late on, this extra furlong and a half should be well within his compass.

Joseph O'Brien was part of history in 2012 when he rode Camelot to Derby glory, becoming one half of the first ever father-son trainer/jockey combination to win the world's greatest Flat race.

Now the 33-year-old bids to become the first person to win the race as both a trainer and jockey in 186 years, and he has a real chance of doing so.

A son of the top-class, versatile sire Zarak, James J Braddock bolted up to beat the useful Cannes by six lengths to shed his maiden tag on his second start, and though he was only fifth in the Ballysax on his reappearance, he improved for the quicker ground back there last month to deliver a knockout blow on Pierre Bonnard and Endorsement.

This trip promises to suit the Kevin Blake-owned colt and, given he also won on heavy last year, should not mind which way conditions turn. Like most of these, another step forward will be required, but he is progressive and can be in amongst the big money should his latest gutsy effort not left a mark.

William Haggas's first runner in the Derby was a winning one in 1996 when Shaamit landed the spoils. The master of Somerville Lodge has saddled three runners in the race since, with Storm The Stars fairing best when finishing third in 2015.

This year, on paper at least, he has his best chance yet of winning the £2-million showpiece as Maltese Cross, bought by his son Sam, arrives at Epsom having won three on the spin, most recently in the Lingfield Derby Trial from the re-opposing Bay Of Brilliance.

Anthony Van Dyck (2019) was the last horse to win both races and this year's trial, whilst not the deepest, saw the front two stretch well clear of their four rivals.

The son of Sea The Stars is out of a Camelot mare, so is somewhat bred to relish this test, though soft ground would pose a question mark. He has only one narrowly in each race to date, but that may not be a bad thing, you get the sense he just does enough and keeps plenty back for himself, and is improving too.

Pierre Bonnard was one of the biggest ante-post liabilities for this race over the winter. Having signed off his juvenile campaign with wins in the Zetland Stakes and Criterium de Saint-Cloud, he was the Derby favourite for some time, until well-beaten in the Ballysax when clearly needing the run on his reappearance.

His odds were pushed out further still when second to James J Braddock last month, but in recent weeks he has been the best backed horse in the field, with his odds contracting from 14-1 to as short as 9-2 at the time of writing.

Draw a line through his first run this year and upgrade his latest effort where the slow pace was never going to suit a horse who looks a dour stayer, then he has solid claims here.

This extra two furlong should be right up his street and one imagines he will be sent forward. Ground versatile, there is every reason to believe we still haven't seen the best of him - his Group One-winning dam did not even race until four.

Poker cost an eye-watering 4,300,000gns at Book 1 but has only recouped just over £11,000 so far, and is yet to win.

Sixth on debut in September, he improved to finish a remote second behind Bay Of Brilliance at Redcar the following month, and he took another small step forward when second upped to a mile and a half at Haydock in April.

Rated 80, this looks a mammoth task and it is difficult to envisage him laying a glove on some of these.

Usually seen in the winners' enclosure at Cheltenham in December as opposed to Epsom on the first weekend in June, Fay Bramley has yet to saddle a winner on the Flat this season and is unlikely to end that run here.

Rebel Rocker is, however, a talented horse. He sprung a surprise to win on debut at Kempton in November before appreciating the step up to a mile and a quarter when second here behind Saxon Street in the Blue Riband Derby Trial.

His experience of the track should stand him in good stead but this is huge step up in class and it is difficult to make a case for him. Rated 99 after his to starts, there are however, some nice prizes to aim for this season.

Having advised him ante-post, my confidence in PIERRE BONNARD running a big race has increased since, with the son of Camelot strong in the market, conditions set to suit and a positive draw in stall 8. James J Braddock must also therefore come into calculations.

He beat the selection last time and should also be suited by this step up in trip, but may struggle to confirm form is a more strongly run contest. He is worth an each-way bet at 12-1. Ancient Egypt has drawn the most successful birth in Derby history in stall 10 and can round out the places for Amo Racing.

1 PIERRE BONNARD. 2 JAMES J BRADDOCK. 3 ANCIENT EGYPT. 4 ITEM. 5 BENVENUTO CELLINI. 6 MALTESE CROSS. 7 BAY OF BRILLIANCE. 8 ACTION. 9 CHRISTMAS DAY. 10 REBEL ROCKER. 11 BALZAC. 12 POKER. 13 ALDERMAN. 14 A TASTE OF GLORY.