Cheltenham Festival: what the stride data tells us about five key horses
By Andy Stephens
Last Updated: Wed 11 Mar 2026
One element of horse racing that is often overlooked by the masses is stride data.
Yet it gives us early clues as to whether a horse is a sprinter or a stayer, or somewhere in between. And with the Festival in mind it can provide us with a helping hand and remove some of the guesswork as horses move up or down in distance.
Even from an early age, a horse’s stride pattern is quickly established. The course topography and ground can be factors in small variations, but usually not a lot.
Top sprinters can cram in an average of 2.5 strides per second, which is just about what Asfoora managed when winning the Nunthorpe at York in August.
At the other end of the scale, long-distance staying chasers generally turn over far fewer, with 2 strides per second, or thereabouts, usually considered ideal for the sport’s blue riband event, the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup. That helps them conserve energy, rather than be explosive speedsters.
Galopin Des Champsfits the profile perfectly. The RaceiQ data tells us that in thee past three Golds Cups, his average strides per second have been 1.98, 2 and 2.01. And his maximum frequency in those races, when literally going as fast as his legs would carry him, were 2.15, 2.17 and 2.17.
Sadly, he will not be in action on Friday but defending champion Inothewayurthinkin will. He averaged 2.04 strides per second 12 months ago, having logged 2.01 the year before when taking the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir.
As ever, there will be several leading fancies next week who will be moving up in distance. Will they stay? Let’s see if their stride data can throw some more light on the subject, while always keeping in mind there are exceptions to every rule.
JAGWAR
Jagwarwill be moving up to 3m 1f on Tuesday, having previously never run over much further than 2m 5f. His seven previous runs over fences have been over about 2m 4f.
The good news for his supporters is that his stride data offers plenty of encouragement that the longer trip will be no problem and may even unlock more improvement.
He has averaged 2.03 strides per second in both his races at Cheltenham this season, and it was the same when he won the Plate at the meeting last year. He had gone wild the time before, averaging 2.04, and before that logged 1.99 (Uttoxeter), 1.97 (Bangor) and the tried and tested 2.03 (Wetherby).
Moreover, Jagwar has recorded the highest Finishing Speed Percentages in his past four races, and six times out of seven over fences. He’s never been flagging.
This is not say he will win (although I think he will), but that economical pattern of his will at least give him every chance of getting home. He’s also a good jumper (RaceiQ Jump Index of 8 out of 10) so the extra fences should benefit him, too.
ROMEO COOLIO
Where’s the Turners’ Novices Chase when you need it? It’s a certainty that Romeo Coolio would have run over the intermediate trip had the option been there. But it isn’t, at least not for novices, and who can blame his connections for declining a clash with Fact To File in the Ryanair?
The Arkle had looked on the cards for Romeo Coolio but with word “good” creeping into the going description, his connections are swerving 2m and have opted for the 3m1f option.
Yes, 3m1f, you read that right. There’s an extra half furlong to run this year, plus one more fence will have to be negotiated. This was announced in the autumn as Cheltenham reviewed several shambolic starts. The Brown Advisory will have a new starting point, designed to eliminate the issue.
So how will Romeo Coolio cope with 25 furlongs, instead of just under 16? His stride data is not typical of an out-and-out stayer.
In four races over fences, his tallies have read 2.12, 2.08, 2.13 and 2.12. And when he finished third over hurdles at Cheltenham last year, he clocked 2.14.
The past three winners of the Brown Advisory, over 110 yards less than this year, have been The Real Whacker (average 1.99 strides per second); Fact To File (2.01 – it’s a crying shame he’s not going to get a go in the Gold Cup); and Lecky Watson (2.03).
Coincidence or not, the first five home in 2023 turned over an average of 2.06 strides per second. The other five in the race ranged between 2.11 and 2.17.
One thing that will help Romeo Coolio is his excellent jumping. His career Index score is 8.4.
KABRAL DU MATHAN
I have to declare an interest here. When Kabral Du Mathan bolted up on his return over 2m 3f at Haydock, with his rider clearly not bothered about protecting his handicap mark, he looked the complete package and I had a cheeky ante-post punt at outlandish odds on him winning the Champion Hurdle.
He also showed bundles of speed when landing the Relkeel Hurdle over 2m 4f at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. His connections suggested afterwards he would miss Cheltenham, but they’ve had a change of heart. The trouble, for me, is that they’ve opted to go up in trip, not down.
There’s not much doubt he will be the quickest horse in the race – he’s hit 36.5mph without seemingly engaging top gear in his past two starts – and his stride data does offer hope that he will be able to conserve enough energy to handle the extra yardage.
In his seven races, over a variety of trips and different courses/ground, his average strides per second have ranged between 2.07 and 2.1. That less than Teahupoo typically manages.
Kabral Du Mathan’s Finishing Speed Percentage have been best in four of his past six starts, plus the data tells us he’s the best jumper among the fancied horses (Jump Index 8.1). I’m going to have to back him again.
JANGO BAIE & THE JUKEBOX MAN
The Jukebox Man typically averages at least 2.1 strides per second, hitting 2.31 in the King George
This pair are Britain’s leading hopes in the most prestigious Jump race of all. The team behind The Jukebox Man, to a man, are adamant he will stay, and Nico De Boinville, the jockey of Jango Baie, reckons he will relish every millimetre and has said he would welcome an end-to-end gallop.
The stride data of both horses paints a cloudier picture.
Let’s start with the recent events on the New Course, which places more emphasis on stamina than the Old Course. It’s only a small pool but the past three Gold Cup winners have averaged 1.98, 2 and 2.04 strides per second. No horse in the first three has averaged more than 2.07.
Kim Muir winners in the same period have averaged 2.1, 2.01 and 1.98. And in the Hunters’ Chase, the winners have had figures of 2.11, 2.05 and 2.04.
The Jukebox Man averaged 2.15 when landing the King George VI Chase last time and hit a maximum frequency of 2.31. That latter figure screams speed, not stamina.
In his past seven races, he has never clocked less than 2.1 strides per second.
Moreover, none of his four chase races have been run at end-to-end gallop, illustrated by his Finishing Sped Percentages of 111% or higher. In the King George, he rallied tenaciously to get his head in front but the data tells us that he was actually only fourth fastest over the final half mile.
Meanwhile, Jango Baie averaged 2.14 strides per second in the King George. He’s Mr Consistent as he averaged 2.15 when winning on his chasing bow at Cheltenham last season, and the same when somehow getting up in last year’s Arkle.
But, of course, it’s not quite that straightforward.
We don’t have A Plus Tard’s digits for when he won the Gold Cup by 15 lengths in 2022, but his final three career stride average figures were 2.16, 2.19 and 2.18. So, high-average striders can win a Gold Cup and all is not lost for The Jukebox Man or Jango Baie.
They are probably just going to have to do things the hard way.
THE CHAMPION BUMPER
WEDNESDAY:5.20 Weatherbys Champion Bumper
We only have three Champion Bumper winners to study in the RaceiQ database but they all have the same thing in common: their strides per second have been prolific.
Bambino Fever's average of 2.15 last year was joint highest. Jasmin De Vaux (2.14) was also joint top the year before; and A Dream To Share (2.13) was a smidgeon off the top (2.14).
Which stands to reason. We need to a horse who has a bit of toe, rather than one who will be a thorough stayer in time.
It's only a very small pool to be working with, but it's enough to make me wary of leading contenders such as The Irish Avatar, Quiryn, Our Trigger and Broadway Ted. They've all logged low cadency that suggests they will want a decent trip when going over Jumps. The quartet are trading between 8-1 and 16-1.
Four that can turn their strides over quicker (2.1 or higher) are The Mourne Rambler,Boycetown, Moonverrin, Vango Can Go. The first named is 10-1, with the other trio chalked up between 33-1 and 50-1.
The Mourne Rambler is the most interesting, with his Leopardstown win over Christmas looking strong form. And Facile Vega won the same race en route to Bumper glory.
Noel Meade has booked champion Flat jockey Colin Keane for a horse who averaged 2.1 strides per second. At his maximum, he hit 2.27. He should not lack the necessary speed and would be my each-way pick in one of the trickiest contests of the week.
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