Cheltenham Festival: RaceiQ's clues for the Gold Cup

Is the defending champ and his odds have tumbled from 20-1 to single figures in recent days . His three runs this term have all been disappointing, though, and his data does not offer any rays of light. He had already lost 6.7 lengths with his jumping before taking a tired fall at the final fence in the Irish Gold Cup last time, which he approached at just 22mph. The eight-year-old also surrendered 11.49 lengths in the air in the Savills Chase, when also labouring at the finish (jumped the last at about 25mph and his FSP was 93.5%). 

won a thrilling King George VI Chase but whether he has the staying power to win a Gold Cup remains to be seen. His past four Finishing Speed Percentages have been 111.45% or higher; indicative of him featuring in races not run at end-to-end gallops. And his FSP when touched off in the Albert Bartlett a couple of years ago was 107.18%. He basically got an easy time upfront but couldn’t hang on. His stride data is also not typical of a long-distance chaser, as he averages more strides per second than those who usually rise to the top in this sphere. However, there are exceptions to every rule.

Maybe that is also true of Jango Baie. He lost ground at the first five fences in the King George, when the pace was nothing special, but was much more efficient over the final four fences when the pace was hotter. His scores at the final fences read 8.8, 7.6, 8.8 and 8.4. Incidentally, his final furlong of 13.86sec in the Arkle last year is among the top 20 at Cheltenham over obstacles from 2,318 runners. One niggle is his stride data, which in common with The Jukebox Man, raises doubts as to whether a thorough test will show him in the best light.

There’s a common theory that Gaelic Warrior is not at his best at Leopardstown but his Jump Index score of 9.2 in the Irish Gold Cup on his latest start was a personal best. It was not quite enough for him to confirm John Durkan superiority over Fact To File (he recorded a 9.6 that day) but confirmed he would be well worth his place in the field, although the Ryanair Chase remains an option for him. Cheltenham is no issue for him. He gained 9.37 lengths with his jumping when landing the Arkle two years ago and had swiped 8.6 in the Turners’ 12 months earlier. 

Is also fluent over his obstacles, with his career Jump Index score of 8.5 being best in the field (marginally better than Gaelic Warrior’s 8.4). He got back on track when landing the Cotswold Chase last time and don’t forget his final half mile was quickest when splitting Fact To File and Galopin Des Champs in the 2024 John Durkan.  

He was disappointing, on the face of it, when only third in the Cotswold Chase last time, but it would be a mistake to dismiss him. He was held up in a slow-run race and after untimely error two out, when already playing catch-up, Harry Skelton nursed him home. Grey Dawning lost 6.22mph making that error and his speed recovery time was 3.53sec. It is probably best to judge him on some of his earlier efforts. He was No 1 in all RaceiQ departments when cruising home in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November, and when he won at the Festival two years ago he gained ground at all bar one of the 16 fences (swiped a dozen lengths in total) and got a Jump Index score of 9.0. 

Is a stout stayer, having won the National Hunt Chase, Irish National and Welsh National in the past year, but he will be moving up in his class and his career Jump Index score of 7.1 suggests it could be beyond him. He was awarded a score of just 6.4 for his jumping when landing the Denman Chase last time in a race where he was helped by his three rivals also being inefficient in that department. In fact, he has not scored higher than a 7 for his jumping in his races this term, and if he does not sharpen up his act then the opposition will almost certainly be consistently pinching ground off him over the 22 fences.

The trip is an unknown quantity for the admirable Envoi Allen. The veteran has a fabulous Festival record, but he will be having a belated first run in the Gold Cup and his jumping is perhaps not as good as it was. He’s lost ground getting from A to B in four of his past six starts and not gained much in the other pair, either. His career Jump Index score is 7.3.