Cheltenham Festival: RaceiQ's clues for the Gold Cup

Is the defending champ and his odds have tumbled from 20-1 to single figures in recent days . His three runs this term have all been disappointing, though, and his data does not offer any rays of light. He had already lost 6.7 lengths with his jumping before taking a tired fall at the final fence in the Irish Gold Cup last time, which he approached at just 22mph. The eight-year-old also surrendered 11.49 lengths in the air in the Savills Chase, when also labouring at the finish (jumped the last at about 25mph and his FSP was 93.5%). 

won a thrilling King George VI Chase but whether he has the staying power to win a Gold Cup remains to be seen. His past four Finishing Speed Percentages have been 111.45% or higher; indicative of him featuring in races not run at end-to-end gallops. And his FSP when touched off in the Albert Bartlett a couple of years ago was 107.18%. He basically got an easy time upfront but couldn’t hang on. 

We know two-time winner Galopin Des Champs has the requisite stamina but, worryingly for his bulging Fan Club, he ran out of puff in the Irish Gold Cup on his latest start, with his FSP dipping under 100% for the first time in his career. That represents a rare slice of vulnerability, but perhaps he was still not at his peak after an interrupted start to his campaign. He’s jumped no better than fifth best of the whole field in the past three editions of the race. 

His jumping is rarely anything but a treat and his career Jump Index score of 8.7 is the best in the field. He gained 18 lengths in the air in the Irish Gold Cup, having gained 21.57 lengths earlier in the season in the John Durkan. His best two Jump Index scores – 9.5 and 9.6 – have come in races run at a strong gallop. Basically, the metrics tell us that the quicker they go, the slicker he jumps. 

Maybe that is also true of Jango Baie. He lost ground at the first five fences in the King George, when the pace was nothing special, but was much more efficient over the final four fences when the pace was hotter. His scores at the final fences read 8.8, 7.6, 8.8 and 8.4. Incidentally, his final furlong of 13.86sec in the Arkle last year is among the top 20 at Cheltenham over obstacles from 2,318 runners. 

There’s a common theory that Gaelic Warrior is not at his best at Leopardstown but his Jump Index score of 9.2 in the Irish Gold Cup on his latest start was a personal best. It was not quite enough for him to confirm John Durkan superiority over Fact To File (he recorded a 9.6 that day) but confirmed he would be well worth his place in the field, although the Ryanair Chase remains an option for him. Cheltenham is no issue for him. He gained 9.37 lengths with his jumping when landing the Arkle two years ago and had swiped 8.6 in the Turners’ 12 months earlier. 

Won the Grand National in 2024 and was runner-up when defending his crown, but he continues to be betrayed by the way he negotiates fences. RaceiQ have 12 of his races in their database and he has surrendered almost 120 lengths in those contests. When he ran in the Brown Advisory three years ago, he got a Jump Index score of 6.6 and lost 12.41 lengths in the air. 

He was disappointing, on the face of it, when only third in the four-runner Cotswold Chase last time, but it would be a mistake to dismiss him. He was held up in a slow-run race and after untimely error two out, when already playing catch-up, Harry Skelton nursed him home. Grey Dawning lost 6.22mph making that error and his speed recovery time was 3.53sec. When winning at the Festival two years ago, the nine-year-old was always prominent and barely put a foot wrong, gaining ground at all bar one of the 16 fences (a dozen lengths in total) and getting a Jump Index score of 9.0. If he can replicate that, then this season’s easy Betfair Chase winner should make his presence felt. 

Is a stout stayer, having won the National Hunt Chase, Irish National and Welsh National in the past year, but he will be moving up in his class and his career Jump Index score of 7.1 suggests it could be beyond him. He was awarded a score of just 6.4 for his jumping when landing the Denman Chase last time in a race where he was helped by his three rivals also being inefficient in that department. In fact, he has not scored higher than a 7 for his jumping in his races this term, and if he does not sharpen up his act then the opposition will almost certainly be consistently pinching ground off him over the 22 fences.

His jumping is also a cause for concern. He’s only gained ground with his leaping once in his past seven races, going violently to his right when landing the Savills Chase on his penultimate start. In the Irish Gold Cup, last time, he lost 5.39mph or more at seven fences. By way of comparison, Fact To File never lost more than 3.93mph over the same obstacles. 

The trip is an unknown quantity for the admirable Envoi Allen. The veteran has a fabulous Festival record, but he will be having a belated first run in the Gold Cup and his jumping is perhaps not as good as it was. He’s lost ground getting from A to B in four of his past six starts and not gained much in the other pair, either. His career Jump Index score is 7.3.