The 2021 Cheltenham Festival: A super statistic for each of the 28 races

Benjamin Disraeli said there are three types of lies. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

But he would never have been presented with data concerning French-bred mares running at the Cheltenham Festival, would he? Or runners wearing headgear in the Ultima Handicap Chase, or the catalogue of negatives for Altior in the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase.

The below reflects many notable Festival trends, stats, facts and figures. But don’t let it cloud your judgement or determine your thinking next week. Remember, rules are also there to be broken!

Five of the past eight winners have had an official rating of 153 or higher. They have been Vautour (155), Douvan (155), Altior (155), Klassical Dream (154) and Shishkin (153). This year, the only contender rated above 150 is Appreciate It, who has a mark of 153. The highest British-trained contender rated is Metier, who is on 149.

Between 1998 and 2006, four renewals were won by five-year-olds. However, since the 5lb age allowance was scrubbed 13 years ago, they are 0/12 in the race, albeit Fakir D’Oudairies went close last year. Allmankind is set to fly the flag for the generation this year.

Eight of the past nine runnings have been won by a horse wearing some form of headgear (cheekpieces or blinkers but never a visor) at prices ranging between 15-2 and 28-1. On four occasions they’ve enjoyed a 1-2, and in 2016 a spectacular 1-2-3 (the Trifecta paid £2,025). The year they missed the target, in 2018, the visored Shantou Flyer was beaten a neck at 14-1. A total of 85 horses have worn headgear in the race since 2012. Meanwhile, 116 have worn no headgear with Coo Star Sivola (5-1) their only victor in this period. If you’d put £10 on every horse wearing headgear in the race since 2012, you would be showing a profit of £195. Had you put £10 on all the horses without headgear, you would have lost £1,100. Only four of the 16 declared runners will be wearing headgear this year - none of them shorter than 16-1.

The past six winners – Faugheen (111), Annie Power (11), Buveur D’Air (111), Buveur D’Air (111), Espor D’Allen (111) and Epatante (11) all lined up having not been beaten that season. Honeysuckle (11) is the only horse in this year’s line-up who has had a blemish-free campaign. In addition, 26 of the past 30 winners of the race won on their most recent start. That does not augur well for the first two home last year, Epatante and Sharjah, or such as Abacadabras, Aspire Tower or Buveur D’Air.

French-bred runners have accounted for 21.2 per cent of the runners in the Mares’ Hurdle, yet they have won nine of the 13 renewals (admittedly Quevega won six of them!). It would surely have been ten winners had Benie Des Dieux not fallen at the final flight in 2019. She also went close when second in last year’s running. This year’s hot favourite, Concertista, is also a French-bred and represents Willie Mullins, who already has nine wins in the race.

France is also a good angle in the Boodles. Nine of the 16 winners began their careers there, including last year’s winner Aramax. Gordon Elliott, who trained Aramax last year, would have been seeking a fourth win in the race since 2013 had he not been suspended. Denise Foster is now at the helm at his yard and her contenders could include Riviere D’Etel and Teahupoo, who both ran in France before joining the yard.

Elliott has had nine runners in the National Hunt Chase. Five have failed to complete, while the other four have all won. His winners have been Chicago Grey (5-1), Cause Of Causes (8-1), Tiger Roll (16-1) and Ravenhill (12-1) so you would be showing a healthy profit if you had backed him blind. All of Elliott’s winners had been beaten on their previous start and two of them, Chicago Grey and Ravenill, had suffered a fall earlier in the campaign. The main hope of his Cullantra House Stables had been the well-fancied Galvin but he has recently been moved to Ian Ferguson. However, a team now led by Foster may still have the last laugh in the shape of Escaria Ten.

Look away now if you are a Bravemansgame supporter in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle. He won the Challow Hurdle last time but the record of winners in that race stands at zero from 17. The last Challow winner to win at the Festival in the same season was Wichita Lineman, who went on to win the Albert Bartlett in 2007.

Monkfish has yet to be beaten over fences and is hot favourite. This century, there have been only two winners who boasted a 100 per cent record over fences after victory in the race – Denman and Don Poli.

Only four winners since 2000 had run more than nine times over hurdles and one of those, William Henry, had only ten to his name before victory in 2019. The evidence is clear: look for lightly raced and second-season hurdlers.

The stats for Altior, a dual winner of the race, are shocking. Only one horse older than 10 (Moscow Flyer) has won since 1978; just two of the past 22 winners failed to win last time out; only two victors in the past three decades have not run in that calendar year. Since 1975, only Moscow Flyer and Sprinter Sacre have regained their crown. And, finally, there has been only one triple winner of the race in Badsworth Boy.

No fewer than 13 of the 16 winners had run at the track earlier in the season – and only three winners had no previous experience of the track. So it may pay to keep a very close eye on the race run at over the cross-country course in November and December.

Nine of the past ten winners have had an official rating of between 138 and 147 – with the odd one out being on 150. Sky Pirate is the ante-post favourite but will have to defy a rating of 152.

Willie Mullins has had the Weatherbys Champion Bumper winner ten times since it was first run in 1992 – plus plenty of near-misses. However, punters looking to cash in on his dominance should note the market often gets his runners wrong. For example, his past five winners have been returned at 12-1 (Cousin Vinny), 16-1 (Champagne Fever), 25-1 (Briar Hill), 25-1 (Relegate) and 11-1 (Ferny Hollow). The shortest-priced Mullins runners in those races finished sixth, third eighth, fifth and second. So rather than just tick off his hot favourite, Kilcruit, make sure you have a look at what else he runs.

Half of the ten winners of the Marsh Chase had previously won at the Festival over hurdles and eight had won a Graded novice chase on their previous start. The unbeaten Envoi Allen is a warm order and ticks both those boxes.

Keep an eye on runners representing Denise Foster and David Pipe. Foster is now taking charge of Elliott’s runners and the stable has landed the past three renewals. Remarkably, too, their other six runners have all been placed. The Bosses Oscar seems lkely to represent them. Meanwhile, Pipe has landed the race twice since 2010 as well as having five horses placed. He is set to run Brinkley.

Thirteen of the past 16 Ryanair Chase winners have boasted at least one Cheltenham win beforehand. Allaho and Melon are leading fancies this year but do not boast a course win, although they have gone close at the Festival in the past.

The past three winners all ran in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle the previous year. Penhill completed the double but Paisley Park (unplaced) and Lisnigar Oscar (fifth) were both defeated. Fury Road (third) and Thyme Hill (fourth) are among this year’s Stayers’ Hurdle hopefuls who ran in the Albert Bartlett 12 months ago.

Simply The Betts (rated 149) became the seventh Paddy Power Plate winner in succession to be rated in the 140s. He was also the fifth successive novice or second-season chaser to win the race. Farclas, A Wave Of The Sea and Espoir Du Geye are among those who meet the criteria this year and the last-named, quoted at 25-1, is trained by Venetia Williams, who has landed the race three times since 2007 with runners chalked up at 12-1, 33-1 and 50-1.

All five winners of the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle have been trained by Willie Mullins – and each have been French breds who started their careers in France. Mullins’ entries this year include Hook Up and Gauloise, who fit the pattern.

Just three winners since 1992 have been ten or older, which could trim down your form study because a dozen of the top 26 entries in the race are at least double-figure digits. Also, note that eight of the past ten winners have worn some form of headgear and that only one of the past 17 winners won on their most recent start.

Five of the past eight JCB Triumph Hurdle winners ran in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown in February, which augurs well for the unbeaten Quilixios, who won the latest renewal from Saint Sam and Busselton.

Half of the past 14 winners have been trained by a member of the Mullins family (Willie x 5, Thomas x 1 and Tony x 1), while three of the past five renewals have been scooped by Dan Skelton. Only two winners this century have scored off a rating in the 150s, so beware supporting those near the head of the weights.

Monkfish edged home at 5-1 last year but the previous six renewals had all been won by horses going off at double-figure odds: 50-1, 33-1 (twice), 14-1, 11-1 and 16-1, so do not be worried if your fancy is overlooked in the market. Among the 16 winners of the race, Monkfish is the only one not to have won or been placed in a Graded novice hurdle en-route.

The last Cheltenham Gold Cup winner not to have won a Grade One race beforehand was Cool Dawn in 1998. Royale Pagaille, who has never run in a race at the highest level, will emulate him if successful.

Perhaps appropriately, 28 of the past 32 winners began their careers in point-to-points or hunter chases. Billaway, the ante-post favourite, started in points (and like six of the past 11 winners finished in the first five of the previous year’s renewal) but other leading fancies Bob And Co, Staker Wallace, Mighty Stowaway and Caid Du Berlais would be bucking the trend.

It’s the first running of the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase, so we have no stats or trends to play with. But it is worth recognising that 14 of the 18 races run at the Festival exclusively for mares in recent years have been won by French-breds. Among the leading fancies, Elimay is the only one who was bred in France.

David Pipe would naturally love to win the race that honours his father. But since the first running, in 2009, he has had 20 runners and got no closer than third. Big Eared Fran (third in 2009 at 7-2); Ashkazar (seventh in 2010 at 9-2) and Gevrey Chambertin (pulled up at 9-4) all went off favourite, while he has had four other runners beaten at single-figure odds, including Umbrigado last year. Leoncavello and First Lord De Cuet are possible runners for him this year.