Saturday horse racing tips: selections based on RaceiQ data

The Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Criterion Stakes takes place at York for this first time on Saturday, and the one who catches my eye in the Group Three contest is Lethal Levi. He has been a great servant for Karl Burke and has made his presence felt in pattern company this year having climbed through the handicapping ranks last season.

He signed off last season with an impressive victory at Ayr off a rating of 102 when breaking the track record, and while that may have been over six furlongs, his three runs this season have all suggested that returning to seven furlongs should be favourable.

He is clearly fast, as he showed at Ayr when clocking speeds of over 43mph. However, because he achieves this by striding further, rather than faster, I think it gives him the ability to sustain it for longer.

In each of his three races this year, his average stride length has been either the largest or second largest in the field, and he’s also recorded Finishing Speed Percentages of more than 100%, which demonstrates his front-running tactics do not compromise his stamina due to his large stride.

He was only just touched off last time in Group Two company, so I’m excited to see whether this extra furlong on a speed-favouring track could bring out the improvement required to record his first Group win.

In the 6f sprint (4.50 - Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Sprint Handicap ), I think Topwarrior will build on his excellent second on handicap debut, and he has everything in his favour to strike back over this distance.

Our Draw Advantage metric shows that he has an advantage of nearly a length being drawn in stall four. For context, Station X’s draw in stall 11 has a disadvantage of -0.69 lengths, historically.

Topwarrior’s second at Musselburgh last time also suggested that five furlongs was too sharp, and the return to six furlongs looks ideal.

He wasn’t short of speed there, hitting 41.2 mph in the second furlong, and there was only one other horse that clocked a slower Top Speed than him. He also clocked a sub-11 second final furlong, illustrating how strong he was staying on. His final furlong of 11.96 seconds was 0.21 seconds quicker than the winner, but it was too late.

This looks tailor-made for him, though, and I expect him to take full advantage.