Irish Derby: why Lambourn may be a vulnerable favourite

Aidan O’Brien’s record 16 Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby winners have included five who had previously won the Derby at Epsom.

The master trainer seems likely to try and hit his rivals for six at The on Sunday via

Lambourn

, an emphatic all-the-way winner on the Surrey Downs this month.

He's a general 4-5 favourite to complete a double previously achieved by Ballydoyle stars Galileo (2001), High Chaparral (2002),

Camelot

(2012), Australia (2014), and

Auguste Rodin

(2023) although whether he is in the same class as that quintet is a moot point.

His official rating of 120 certainly suggests that he isn’t. Galileo and High Chaparral both arrived at The with a rating of 126, while Camelot and Auguste Rodin were on 124. Australia, his sire, had a mark of 123, rising to a peak of 127.

Recent history has shown us that banking on lower-rated O’Brien-trained Derby winners delivering an encore at The Curragh is dangerous.

Ruler Of The World (rated 120) trailed home fifth in 2013, after being sent off at odds-on, while Wings Of Eagles (120) had to settle for third behind Capri (sixth at Epsom) in 2017, albeit he was subsequently found to be injured.

There were no such excuses for Anthony Van Dyck (118), who finished a six-length runner-up to Sovereign in 2019, having previously had him more than nine lengths behind at Epsom.

You can only beat what you are up against, of course, and Lambourn was an undeniably decisive Derby victor, when he crossed the line almost four lengths clear of Lazy Griff, with Tennessee Stud, New Ground and Stanhope Gardens filling the next three places.

But there was also a sense of him getting things his own way out in front and several of his rivals not being seen to best advantage. 

Wayne Lordan was allowed to dictate ordinary fractions and given the prevailing ground conditions, officially described as good, he and his partner won in a slowish time. Indeed, City Of Troy was quicker a year earlier despite underfoot conditions being softer.

Only once did Lambourn dip below 12 seconds for any furlong – and then only by a smidgeon – and there was an element of his rivals getting in a muddle or being given too much to do.

The RaceiQ Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP) emphasise the point. Lambourn’s was 107.51%, while the next seven home all recorded figures that were higher. Significantly higher in several instances.

Of the first nine home, Lambourn’s top speed of 38.42mph was slowest, and his fastest furlong of 11.96sec was the most pedestrian of the top ten.

In the final three furlongs, Lambourn was slowest of the first six home, with Tennessee Stud and New Ground being a full second quicker.

You would expect that had Lambourn set a searching gallop, as he would then have been entitled to be getting tired, but the sectionals tell us otherwise.

The stamina-laden Lambourn seems certain to again race from the front – not least because prominent racers have an excellent record in the race – but it will be a surprise if the opposition give him much rope.

Overall, 16 Derby winners have lined up at The Curragh since 1988 and 11 have pulled off the double. 

What chance have the support cast of the Derby stealing the show this weekend?

Three of the past four editions of the race have been won by the horse who finished third at Epsom - Hurricane Lane, Westover and Los Angeles - while Sovereign (tenth at Epsom), Capri (sixth), Jack Hobbs (second), Treasure Beach (second), Fame And Glory (second), Frozen Fire (eleventh), Soldier Of Fortune (fifth) and Dylan Thomas (third) have all won in the past two decades.

If Lambourn doesn’t win, it will still be a short price that another O’Brien challenger will prevail. On Tuesday, we will find out how many of his 25 entries remain engaged.

He had his first runners in the race in 1996, and since then he’s been represented every year and had 114 runners. Only once he has not had a top-three finisher, in 2022 when his sole runner, Tuesday, a filly, finished fourth.

O’Brien has had the 1-2-3 on eight occasions, and on a couple of times in recent years, he’s gone one better and had the 1-2-3-4. He enjoys safety in numbers and has had at least four runners on 19 occasions.

Only three of his victors did not run at Epsom beforehand, although one of them, Latrobe, did not get the opportunity as he triumphed in the year of the Coronavirus Pandemic in 2020, when the Irish Derby was run before Epsom.

The other pair have been his first victor, Desert King, who was fourth in the St James’s Palace beforehand, and Cape Blanco, who bounced back from a luckless run in the French Derby in 2010.