In a special edition of Juvenile Watch, Ross Millar shares his expert analysis on the two-year-old races at Ascot last week plus reveals a few youngsters to add to your Racing TV Tracker.
Royal Ascot is over for another year. Some reputations were bolstered, and others dented. We certainly learned that Aidan O’Brien is in charge of a significantly talented crop of juveniles this season, but what else was there to learn? I have picked through each of the six juvenile contests and shared my analysis on them. Enjoy!
This was the start of a good week for Aidan O’Brien as Gstaad landed him his eleventh Coventry success. The son of Starspangledbanner was light on experience heading into this, with just a maiden victory on his CV, yet he belied that fact with a professional performance. Travelling sweetly through the race before lengthening well into the final furlong, he readily pulled three lengths clear of his rivals.
Of the beaten horses, it’s hard to think there were too many hard luck stories.
The well-fancied, Wathnan-Racing owned Postmodern was far too keen through the race, which compromised his finishing effort, and he might be capable of better yet. However, I’ll seek to oppose him on his next start as personal experience tells me once young horses become keen, it’s quite a job to reverse that trait.
Runner-up Do Or Do Not improved significantly on his third start and is probably worthy of an upgrade, given he raced on the far side, which undeniably rode slower on the first few days. He will be capable of shedding his maiden tag should connections chose to tick that box.
My ante-post selection, Andab, ran well enough and stayed on well under a patient ride. Maybe a more forward ride would have seen him get closer, but he wouldn’t have beaten the winner. He’ll improve for an extra furlong, but so to will Gstaad.
The Brian Meehan-trained Bourbon Blues has gone into my Racing TV tracker. He got outpaced two furlongs out before rallying nicely inside the last half furlong. In the right grade, he’d be interesting over seven furlongs.
Opinion: The winner is smart and professional, but I won’t be getting carried away with this as a form guide.
Queen Mary Stakes
True Love had been beaten on both her previous starts, most notably when runner-up to Gstaad at Navan over six furlongs. She looked an entirely different proposition here dropped back in trip. Drawn well in stall 25, she broke smartly and led her group before knuckling down well as the groups merged with a furlong to run. Again, like Gstaad, I was struck by how professionally she operated on the big stage.
Both her trainer and jockey were in unison when suggesting that more improvement will be forthcoming when she steps back up to six furlongs, with both the Prix Morny and the Phoenix Stakes under consideration.
Runner-up Flowerhead showed huge improvement on her third start and finished off her race strongly. Out of a Champs Elysees mare, she looks nailed on to improve for six furlongs.
My selection, Cardiff By The Sea, ran solidly in fourth. She drifted left in the closing stages and possibly found the ground over this trip a bit lively. I won’t give up on her just yet.
Zelaina’s hot temperament had been mentioned prior to this race and it duly proved to be her undoing, despite the best efforts of jockey James Doyle who took her to post early, and very slowly. She raced far to inefficiently, all but running away with Doyle through the first three furlongs. She actually did well to finish eighth. She’s clearly fast but, much like Postmodern, I’ll look to oppose her until she shows signs of maturity.
Away from the principles, it was Eskimo Pie that caught my eye. A daughter of Kodi Bear, she was outpaced at the crucial part of the race but finished off well. Her dam was a six-furlong winner as a two-year old and based on this effort, that trip should see Eskimo Pie improve further.
Opinion: The winner is clearly well regarded and probably won this despite the trip. The form looks reliable; I’ve added the first seven home to my Racing TV tracker.
Windsor Castle Stakes
Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton hasn’t been shy in voicing her disagreement to the changes to this race from next year (in 2026 it will be run over six furlongs and will be restricted to runners whose sire won over at least seven furlongs as a two-year-old, or over a mile as an older horse). Ironically, her winner of this contest, Havana Hurricane, would fit the criteria of next year's contest.
Havana Hurricane had weakened out of contention on his latest start at Epsom when appearing not to stay six furlongs in the Woodcote Stakes. Back down in trip here, he looked far more at home. Charlie Bishop rode a patient race and used Havana Hurricane’s smart turn of foot to great effect, bursting clear down the middle of the track inside the final furlong.
With a price tag of just 9,000gns ,all eyes must surely now switch to the Super Sprint, where price tag is factored into the weight carried.
Nuevo Slovo was the eye-catcher in this. Jockey Colin Keane wasn’t able to ask for maximum effort at the optimum moment, and that proved costly given how well he finished off his race. A step up to six furlongs looks feasible.
My selection, Rogue Supremacy, could never find his rhythm and found trouble in running. Maybe he was flattered by moderate opposition at Wetherby, but I won’t lose faith just yet.
Opinion: Havana Hurricane will be hard to beat in the Super Sprint and might yet prove himself Group class. He was significantly the best on the day and my enthusiasm for the also-rans is limited.
Norfolk Stakes
This was, by some distance, the most impressive juvenile performance of the week.
On the back of a strong week for Ballydoyle in this division, Charles Darwin was sent off the well-backed 8-13 favourite. Those that took the short price would never have had a moment’s worry. Sharply away from the stalls, he made virtually all of the running, potentially only being headed for a stride just as Ryan Moore got him organised before he powered clear of the field.
It was noticeable how more physically developed he was compared to his opposition and that, coupled with his advantage of experience (this was his fourth run), was evident. He has options going forwards as he galloped out well, suggesting he will surely stay six furlongs.
The temptation in these races is to make cases for beaten horses improving through the season. That can’t be the case here. This race was all about one horse.....the winner.
Comical Point was the only other that I thought was noteworthy. He didn’t get a clear passage and finished well, but he’s not in the same league as Charles Darwin.
Opinion: A strong performance. I’d be surprised if Charles Darwin was to be beaten this season – assuming they keep him away from stablemate Albert Einstein!
Albany Stakes
Venetian Sun had stayed on strongly to win over five furlongs on her debut at Carlisle in a race that had worked out well (the runner-up, Argentine Tango, won the Hilary Needler on her next start). She was strong in the closing stages at Carlisle and this step up in trip clearly brought about further improvement.
She received a smooth ride from jockey Clifford Lee and hit the front with a degree of comfort a furlong from home. She showed marginal greenness when shifting left in the closing stages but was readily able to repel her challengers. Her dam was placed in Listed contests over ten furlongs, so there is every chance she’d stay further when required in time.
This trip looks perfect for now, though, and I find it hard to create a scenario where those that were in behind her here can reverse this form. This was just her second start, and she’s entitled to improve for it.
My selection, Balantina, possibly found it all happening a bit too fast on the lively underfoot conditions. She took time to find her stride and rhythm, but she finished off her race well, and she looks to hold plenty of potential when upped in trip, although she is a light-framed filly, and may not take much more racing this summer.
Gold Digger had finished in front of the runner-up Awaken at Yarmouth but failed to confirm that form, likely due to a combination of a failure to settle and that the George Boughey-trained runner-up stepped forward significantly for that first start.
Opinion: Venetian Sun has plenty of potential. Overall, though, I view the Queen Mary as stronger form.
Chesham Stakes
A race that looked weak on paper beforehand, but might just have thrown up a very smart winner in the Wathnan Racing-owned Humidity. A son of the chronically undervalued Ulysses, he bossed this race throughout, getting to the front early on before finding generously for pressure in the final furlong.
The winning distance of a length probably doesn’t do him justice as he first had to get the better of a protracted dual with eventual third, Moments Of Joy, before then finding enough to repel the more patiently ridden Thesecretadversary. A brother to 2022 winner Holloway Boy, Humidity still looks raw, and he’s bound to improve for this. He might be capable of stepping up in Grade in the Autumn.
Treanmor had been a short-priced favourite in the run up to this, but was well beaten. His yard largely failed to fire all week, so maybe he’s capable of better, although it’s worth pointing out the form of his debut win is yet to be boosted.
My each-way selection, Venetian Lace, ran well enough in fourth. She’ll stay further still, and should add a few more wins to her record when back against her own sex.
Opinion: Humidity still looks very raw, and he appeals as a youngster that can step up to Group company over a mile or further.
18+ New customers only. Opt in and bet £10 on Horse Racing (odds 2/1+) within 3 days of sign up. No cash-out. Get your first stake credited in Free Bets, up to £40, for set horse racing markets. Free Bets expire in 5 days. T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org. Please gamble responsibly
New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook (ex. virtuals), placed & settled at 1.5 min odds in 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. Free Bets: accept in 7 days, valid 7 days, use on sportsbook only (ex. virtuals), stakes not returned. T&Cs and deposit exclusions apply.Bet Responsibly. GambleAware.org. 18+
18+ New UK & ROI Customers only. Min deposit up to £/€50. Min first up to £/€50 bet at minimum odds 1/2 to qualify for up to 1x £/€50 free bet. Certain deposit methods and bet types excl. Free bet valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply. GambleAware
Bet £10 Get £40 in Horse Racing Free Bets with BetMGM
New cust only. 7 days to place a qualifying bet of £10 at 1/1 (2.0) to receive 4x Free Horse Racing Bets: 2 x £10 Free Bets on Horse Racing singles and 2 x £10 Free Bets on Horse Racing multiples (2 selections or more). Free Bets cannot be used on e-sports and non UK/IE horse racing. 7 day expiry. Each-way min stake: £20. Exclusions apply. Stake not returned. 18+. Full T&Cs Apply.