Andy Stephens reflects on a Royal Ascot meeting where several high-profile runners fluffed their lines and suggests a quintet to keep a close eye on over the months ahead. Britannia winner Arabian Story gets a quick washdown from Oisin Murphy (Francesa Altoft/focusonracing.com)
Royal Ascot was a scorcher, and a few punters will have ended up getting burnt in more ways than one.
There were nine favourites sent off between 5-4 and 2-1, and all bar two of them fluffed their lines.
Cinderella’s Dream (5-4), Treanmor (5-4), Shadow Of Light (6-4), Zarigana (6-4), Los Angeles (13-8), Signora (15-8), and Satano Reve (2-1), all came up short, although the two odds-on shots at the meeting - Field Of Gold 8-11 and Sober (4-5) – both delivered.
Underfoot conditions were quick despite liberal overnight watering. Times were quick, rapid in places, with
Trawlerman winning the Gold Cup in a record time.
Armed with the RaceiQ data, here are five eye-catchers for the meeting, with a couple of ante-post bets thrown into the mix.
ALPHONSE LE GRANDE
What happened?: Eighth in the Ascot Stakes on Tuesday
Alphonse Le Grade wins the Cesarewitch
The Cesarewitch winner was a well-fancied 15-2 chance for Tuesday’s big staying handicap, but events conspired against him.
Jamie Spencer anchored him in rear and that was a tactic that backfired in a steadily run race. Alphonse Le Grande was last of the 20 runners at the halfway stage and still no closer than 16th with just two furlongs left to run.
To compound matters, he then ran into traffic problems and the race was all over by the time some space eventually presented itself. In the circumstances, the Tony Martin-trained gelding did exceptionally to be beaten under three lengths in a race that featured an Irish 1-2-3-4.
Despite getting hampered, the RaceiQ sectionals reveal he was the fastest horse through the final three furlongs. It was a story of what might have been.
There has never been a back-to-back winner of the Cesarewitch but Alphonse Le Grande, only 6lb higher than when winning at Headquarters and versatile regards the ground, must be a contender. No bookmakers are offering prices at this stage.
RAHIEBB
What happened?: Third in the Queen’s Vase on Wednesday
Egan and Varian after Eldar Eldarov's St Leger triumph
Four of the first five home in the Queen’s Vase raced prominently. The exception was the Roger Varian-trained Rahiebb, and his staying-on third from off the pace needs marking up.
An awkward wide draw didn’t help the Frankel colt, and that was compounded when he was a little slow to hit full stride. That meant Silvestre de Sousa had little option but to play a waiting game, with the first turn coming up uncomfortably quickly.
Swinging for home, Rahiebb still had more in front than behind him and De Sousa had to manoeuvre wide to get clear water. Nothing finished stronger than the combination over the final three furlongs but, as in so many races at Ascot during the week, it paid to be up with the gallop. At the line, he was less than a length off the winner, Carmers, for all that he might have idled a little in front.
The winner became the first to dip under three minutes since the Queen’s Vase distance was dropped to 1m 6f in 2017. And there have been some fine winners during that time, including Stradivarius, Kew Gardens, Eldar Eldarov (also Varian-trained) and
Illinois.
I fancy the form will stand up and keep in mind that Rahiebb had probably faced a thankless task when trying to concede 8lb to Merchant at York on his previous start. That horse was a fluent winner of the King George V Stakes on Thursday.
Carmers is as short as 8-1 for the St Leger at Doncaster in September but Rahieeb is available at 33-1 with Paddy Power and Sky Bet. It seems an obvious end of season destination for him, not least because some easier ground may also suit him.
ILLINOIS
What happened?: runner-up in the Gold Cup on Thursday
The staying showpiece featured a relentless display of galloping by Trawlerman, with William Buick setting perfect fractions.
Unlike his rivals, Trawlerman stayed every inch of the 2m 4f trip and revelled in pulling his rivals out of their comfort zones. He ended up recording the fastest time there has ever been in a Gold Cup at Ascot thanks to Buick riding him with almost maximum efficiency (reflected by his Finishing Speed Percentage being about 102%). By way of comparison, the same stable’s brilliant Stradivarius gained three wins in the race in times between 6sec and 18sec slower, albeit on contrasting surfaces.
Illinois ticked plenty of boxes coming into the race and stalked Trawlerman into the straight, travelling well. However, he simply could not keep up over the final furlongs.
He had been a big drifter in the betting and better paddock watchers than me suggested he was a little on the burly side. Aidan O’Brien said he had been training him for the Coronation Cup at Epsom, over a mile less, before Kyprios’ abrupt retirement forced a rethink.
The rematch between Trawlerman and
Illinois in the
Goodwood Cup promises to be a belter. Over 2m, I fancy a leaner
Illinois will turn the tables.
RUN BOY RUN
What happened?: ninth in the Buckingham Palace Stakes on Thursday
Flashback: Saffie Osborne told us more about Run Boy Run after a win on the July Course The Richard Spencer-trained four-year-old is chalked up at 40-1 for the bet365 Bunbury Cup at Newmarket on July 12 and that makes plenty of appeal despite him being well beaten Thursday.
The first six home were drawn 28, 29, 32, 30, 25 and 31. Clearly, you had to be drawn high on the stands’ side to have any chance. Run Boy Run was effectively beaten before the gates opened from stall 2, with George Wood having little option but to stick to the far rail.
He was one of only four horses that raced on that part of the track and he showed bright speed, comfortably winning his own battle, only to be beaten more than seven lengths because he was swimming against the tide.
This at least shows he remains in good heart, having previously run well in defeat in his four races over 6f this year (including behind
More Thunder – more of him in a moment – at Newmarket on 2000 Guineas Day).
Run Boy Run’s past three wins have all come over 7f and, on the plus side, I’d imagine the handicapper will ease him a bit.
He’s run on the July Course four times, always over 7f, and is building quite a portfolio at the track. He won there twice in August last year, having been runner-up at the July Meeting the previous month, when first home in his group. And in 2023, he had chased home Ghostwriter in a maiden at the track.
MORE THUNDER
What happened?: runner-up the Wokingham on Saturday
Get It holds off More Thunder in the Wokingham (focusonracing.com) The week's most unfortunate loser? Possibly.
More Thunder has thrived this season since joining William Haggas from Sir Michael Stoute and I would not be surprised if he ended up in pattern company before the season is over
If nothing else, the four-year-old colt is the one to take out of Saturday’s big sprint handicap, for all that he he failed by a head to claw back front-running Get It, who had also made all in the Stewards’ Cup last summer.
More Thunder’s draw in stall 23 was not ideal and Tom Marquand settled him in rear down the centre of the track. With just two furlongs to run, he still had 21 horses to pass but he dipped under 11sec in that fourth furlong (one of only four runners to do so) and was clearly beginning to motor.
His 11.27sec penultimate furlong – nothing was quicker – enabled him to zoom past 15 rivals and in the final furlong he was again quickest, clocking 11.67sec. But with conditions on the firm side, Get It was able to cling on.
We will never know what would have happened had Marquand not got his Pro Cush tangled in his reins in the closing stages. It cannot have helped.
The winning time was only a smidgeon slower than Lazzat recorded in the Group One Queen Elizabeth Jubilee Stakes over the same trip earlier in the afternoon, a race in which the 102-rated Nighteyes finished fourth.
The sectionals reveal that they went harder early in the Wokingham, with Get On’s Finishing Speed percentage of 98.97sec indicating he was running out of steam towards the finish. More Thunder was carrying 4lb less than Lazzat, but was quicker than him in four of the final five furlongs.
Could More Thunder emulate Montassib?
He could well have unfinished business in handicaps and Haggas has him entered in the 7f Bunbury Cup (quoted at 6-1) at Newmarket on July 12 plus the 7f International Handicap at Ascot on July 26 (available at 10-1). In between, he’s also in the Group Two Minstrel Stakes over 7f at The Curragh.
His trainer clearly has an inkling that an extra furlong will suit and I imagine that’s the trip we will see him over sometime next month, but I’m hoping that he also explores the big sprints in the second half of the season.
The 110-rated Montassib won the Haydock Sprint Cup for Haggas last season as a six-year-old on his 19th start.
The British and Irish sprinters look an ordinary bunch, so that September contest appeals as somewhere he could take the plunge with More Thunder, who is two years younger and has had only eight starts.
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