An early 14-1 fancy for the John Smith's Cup at York

Despite racing keenly, THUNDER RUN managed to maintain his unbeaten record at York when scoring over course and distance last time out and holds strong credentials for the John Smith’s Cup at York on Saturday, July 12. 

Karl Burke’s charge appeared value for more than the winning margin suggests there, with Clifford Lee at pains to settle his exuberant mount behind leaders on his first outing over an extended ten furlongs. 

Remarkably, the four-year-old was still taking a keen hold two furlongs out, and Lee decided to be patient when making his challenge, which gave the leaders first run. Once hitting top gear, though, the four-year-old powered home to defat Tony Montana, who finished third in last year's John Smith's Cup.

That performance signalled Thunder Run is much better than a rating of 100, and it was also a bounce back from his lacklustre seasonal return in the William Hill Lincoln where he attempted to make all, and shaped as though the outing was needed. 

Burke’s charge looked a potential Group performer in the making last season having progressed rapidly and was good enough to win a strong renewal of the Clipper Handicap at the Sky Bet Ebor Festival on just his fifth start. He probably found the ground a shade too taxing when fourth in the Balmoral Handicap next time out, when sent off at 7-2, and connections advised he was still “very raw” last season. 

A 4lb rise for his York success certainly looks fair, and with further improvement undoubtedly on the horizon over this trip, it would be no surprise if this is his final outing in a handicap before contesting Listed and Group races. 

Royal Ascot was mentioned after his latest victory, but he was balloted out of his intended target, and when I messaged Burke on Monday asking if Thunder Run was going to be aimed at the John Smith’s Cup, he replied saying “that is his target”, along with a folded hands emoji. 

I won’t bore you with them all, but the selection also fits plenty of the required trends for this race, and I expect Thunder Run to go off much shorter than 14-1. 

Both of his York victories were on good to firm ground, but he has won on good to soft, so a bit of cut won’t be a hinderance, and hopefully the draw proves favourable. Racing prominently in this contest has also proved favourable in recent years, and I expect similar tactics will be applied again. 

This course specialist ticks plenty of boxes here, and a big run is surely on the cards (insert fingers crossed emoji!).

Suggested ante-post bet: THUNDER RUN at a best-priced 14-1 (with Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair).