Dave Nevison's Saturday tips: 50-1 pick among four bets

Andrew Balding’s gelding might be the right call here. He is not the only very well-bred type who could be way ahead of the handicapper, but he definitely looks to have been specifically aimed at this race, and can be expected to improve massively for his reappearance effort (he improved to win nicely from first to second start last season). 

The selection finished fourth in a strong race won by Manxman at Goodwood, and looked as though he was making a winning move in the straight until lack of race fitness told. 

He plugged on and proved he stayed this trip well, and with that run under his belt now, I expect a solid run off the same mark. 

Contacto’s dam was a late-developing, Listed-winning stayer, so all the signs are that a rating of 86 gives this four-year-old plenty to work with. 

There are very few progressive or unexposed types in this year’s “Pitmen’s Derby”, which could be ripe for an upset. 

Craig Lidster has his team in good form, and has already done me a favour with one well-backed winner this week, and I believe there is at least a case for backing Intinso to sneak into the frame at big odds here. 

The five-year-old performed dismally at Musselburgh last time but has had a wind operation since that run, which will hopefully have a positive effect. 

I am not worried at all by a two-month absence from the track as he won for the Gosden’s after a break, and ran very well for his new yard after 145 days off, so being fresh could well be a positive. 

He has won at Newcastle in the past and is 5lb lower than his stable debut, which could put him in the mix here. He's chalked up at a general 50-1, at the time of writing.

Tony Martin sends one over for the JenningsBet Northumberland Plate, but there is no way Pralognan is coming over just to fill the box here, and he could well be the best handicapped horse of the day. 

This six-year-old has not run too well on his past three starts on turf, but came back to form last time with a win over hurdles at Downpatrick, so is clearly in good nick. 

A glance back at his latest efforts on the all-weather in Ireland show him running consistently well in handicaps at Dundalk, and he runs off a mark 7lb lower than when he finished fourth there in December. 

Jim Crowley looks a significant jockey booking and I expect the six-year-old to be well supported in this modest event. 

A poor run last time in the Queen Mother's Cup at this track definitely needs to be forgiven (he was too keen early and faded out of things) but, despite some uninspiring form figures, Glistening Nights has looked to be running into form plus is now running off a mark a couple of pounds lower than his latest win. 

He could be worth risking in a race that has a pretty much guaranteed pace on, which will enable him to settle better under crack amateur rider Eireann Cagney. 

The Richard Fahey-trained gelding was in great form last summer winning four times, and looks set to go off a big price after his recent disappointment. Glistening Nights has also run well enough at York previously for me to think last time was a one off.