Rachel Candelora's Kentucky Derby preview: Follow Commandment

The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby, the Run For The Roses, takes place on Saturday and you'll be able to watch the full NBC coverage, including all of the build-up on Racing TV Extra and on Racing TV's YouTube channel.

Nobody at Racing TV knows more about the story behind this year's race, the first leg of the US Triple Crown, than Rachel Candelora, who somehow gave the 1-2-3 (in the right order!) in her preview of the same race 12 months ago. 

Can she repeat the trick? Probably not - but here follows probably the most comprehensively-written preview you'll find of the great race. 

Much of the talk during the prep season for this race was who jockey Irad Ortiz Jr and agent Steve Rushing were going to chose to ride in the Derby, as Irad had previously ridden all of Commandment, Further Ado, Fulleffort, and Renegade to victories in big Kentucky Derby preps.

Although he had the choice, it was never in any doubt when Irad got off Commandment in the Gr 1 Florida Derby and went to Arkansas to ride Renegade in the Gr 1 Arkansas Derby – races which were run on the same day. The decision had been made, a decision very important to the five-times Eclipse Award-winning jockey, currently 0-9 in the Kentucky Derby, including a fifth-placed effort with subsequent Gr 1 Belmont Stakes winner Mo Donegal in 2022 for these same connections - also drawn in the dreaded Post Position 1.

In fact, Irad has been drawn PP1 in the Derby on two previous occasions and therefore will have a bit more experience with that draw, a post position which no horse has won from since Ferdinand in 1986.

While a lot of talk has been about the jockey, Renegade himself is one of the top three-year-olds of the season, having won both of his starts in 2026 in the Sam F Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay and the Gr 1 Arkansas Derby last time out, bursting clear to win by four lengths.

On the clock he is the fastest finisher in this race, and according to two-times Kentucky Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher the way in which he has finished his last two races is “his biggest strength.” 

While Todd Pletcher has won two Derbys (and had six other placed horses), he has had a lot of highly-touted horses who have run poorly amongst his record 65 career Derby starters. The late news about Renegade is that he will be wearing specially made three-quarter shoes in the Derby as he continuously suffers from quarter cracks in his hooves. 

(Note: He does not own a lot of early speed and therefore regardless of how good he is he is going to need a bit of luck to get a trip from the inside draw.)

One of two runners in the Kentucky Derby for Derby rookie Riley Mott, the son of dual Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bill Mott, Albus has won his last two starts, an extended mile maiden at Tampa Bay and then jumped up in grade to win the Gr 2 Wood Memorial over 1 1/8th at Aqueduct. 

The Wood Memorial has not yielded a Derby winner since Funny Cide in 2003 – since then only one Wood Memorial starter has recorded a top three finish in the Derby. Also, his post position of gate 2 has not been victorious since Affirmed won in 1978.

He is no Affirmed. 

This Californian-based runner was one of the leading two-year-olds last season winning the Gr 1 American Pharoah over 1 1/16th miles at Santa Anita last October before finishing a disappointing fifth in the Gr 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. 

Unfortunately he now looks like a colt who has not trained on as a three-year-old. Last time out he finished a badly weakening fourth in the Gr 1 Santa Anita Derby.

Last week, in his final work, he made a favourable impression working a fast four furlongs in 44.7 seconds. However trainer Jeff Mullins was not happy with that saying “he didn’t need to work that fast this close to the race.” 

One of two runners in the race for trainer Bob Baffert, who holds the joint record of six Kentucky Derby victories.

Both wins for this son of Derby winner Nyquist came as a two-year-old including taking the Gr 2 Los Alamitos Futurity over 1 1/16th miles at Los Alamitos Racetrack in southern California. 

This year he finished a distant third in the Gr 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on his three-year-old debut having set the early pace. 

Bob Baffert took the colt’s regular blinkers off in the Gr 1 Arkansas Derby in an effort to get the horse to rate, however it was not an effective decision as he finished a never dangerous seventh.

The blinkers are back on now but you have to go back to 1958 for the last time a horse, who finished outside the top four in their final prep, won the Derby. 

This son of Constitution has won one of his four starts in a one mile maiden at Aqueduct in January. He earned a spot in this race with a third in the Gr 3 Gotham over one mile and then a steadily staying on second in the Gr 2 Wood Memorial over 1 1/8th miles where he was beaten a length and a quarter by Albus – both races took place at Aqueduct in New York.

He is an interesting contender for Kentucky-based Derby winning trainer Kenny McPeek as he has never run away from Aqueduct.

McPeek is using Right To Party’s regular jockey Christopher Elliott (son of Stewie Elliott, rider of 2004 Derby winner Smarty Jones) for the Derby which will make this 20-year-old jockey the youngest rider in this year’s race. 

Right To Party did have a bit of a training blip last week as he had some caps in his mouth that came loose, so connections had to do some dental work, but workwatchers seemed to think that he was fine during his final work last Saturday. 

Trainer Brad Cox (whose Mandaloun was awarded the 2021 Kentucky Derby after the event due to Medina Spirit being disqualified due to a drug infringement), has two representatives in this year’s race.

Commandment is the first of his runners and is the winningmost horse in the race coming into the Derby off a four-race winning streak including grittily landing the Gr 1 Florida Derby over 1 1/8th miles at Gulfstream Park, by a nose from The Puma, last time out. 

Statistically the Florida Derby has produced more winners of the Kentucky Derby than any other prep race.

A son of Into Mischief, Commandment closed into slow early fractions in the Florida Derby and should get a better pace scenario here. Also in his favour is the fact that he is only one of three horses who own a victory over the Churchill Downs surface as he broke his maiden in Louisville over seven furlongs last November. 

Commandment has been the jockey merry-go-round horse this season and Luis Saez will be aboard him in the Derby – the horse’s third different rider in three races as both Irad Ortiz Jr and Flavien Prat have taken their tack elsewhere.

Wathnan Racing’s first ever runner in this race is certainly bred to win a Derby as sire Into Mischief has already produced three winners and his dam sire Orb won the 2014 renewal of the race. 

This son of American sire Maxfield (a five-times winner at Churchill Downs including the Gr 1 Clark Handicap) got into the Derby by way of winning the Japanese Road To The Kentucky Derby series.

Danon Bourbon is undefeated in three career starts in Japan most recently winning the Fukuryu Stakes over 1 1/8th miles at Nakayama Racecourse, in stakes record time, on a muddy surface. 

While he has not beaten a lot in Japan, he has been visually impressive, possesses early tactical speed and a strong finishing kick. However the Derby will be his first time going left-handed, and his jockey Atsuya Nishimura is having his first ride in the US. 

The leading California-based contender, So Happy has won three of his four career starts with his sole loss coming to Potente in the Gr 2 San Felipe Stakes over 1 1/16th miles at Santa Anita in March. 

He got the better of that rival when winning the Gr 1 Santa Anita Derby over 1 1/8th miles by two and three-quarter lengths last time out. 

For all that it seemed that he got the trip against suspect stayers in the Santa Anita Derby, being by a Champion Sprinter in Runhappy does cause a few worries in regards to stamina, although his damsire is Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame.

If anyone can try and preserve stamina in the Derby it is jockey Mike Smith, who is the most experienced jockey in Derby history with 28 previous rides which have netted him two wins in the Derby - Justify in 2018 and Giacomo in 2005.

Both of his winners ran in the Gr 1 Santa Anita Derby as their final prep.

If 59-year-old Mike Smith were to win the Derby he would make history as the oldest jockey to win the race, surpassing Bill Shoemaker who was 54 when Ferdinand won in 1986. 

This son of Essential Quality broke his maiden on the third attempt when winning the Gr 2 Tampa Bay Derby over 1 1/16th miles at Tampa Bay Downs beating Further Ado who went to impressively win the Gr 1 Bluegrass Stakes. 

Last time out The Puma ran a nose second to the fast-finishing Commandment in the Gr 1 Florida Derby over 1 1/8th miles at Gulfstream Park.

Four Florida Derby runners-up have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, including Sovereignty last year. 

Also, in 2023 Mage finished second in Florida and went on to win in Louisville for the same owner/trainer/jockey combination that campaign The Puma. 

Trainer Gustavo Delgado has said that the three-week turnaround from the Gr 2 Tampa Bay Derby victory and the run in the Florida Derby may have contributed to his head-bob loss. 

He has been working well since the Florida Derby and jockey Javier Castellano thinks he has more improvement to come, especially considering he has only raced as a three-year-old, and while only three horses have won the Derby without racing at two the most recent was Mage in 2023.

The main chink in his armour is that he tends to break flat-footed, which in the Derby can prove a major obstacle to overcome.

The winner of the European and Middle East Road to the Kentucky Derby series, Wonder Dean represents Japan and has won two of his six career starts including the Gr 2 UAE Derby over 1 3/16th miles at Meydan in Dubai last time out.

In that race he ran down the distance-challenged Six Speed in one of the slowest times in the history of the race.

Since 1977 horses who have raced outside of North America have gone 0-50 in the Kentucky Derby. Also, since 1992 horses who are making their US debuts are 0-18, with only Forever Young finishing in the top five when he was third in 2024.

And while Wonder Dean does get the services of Forever Young’s jockey Ryusei Sakai in the saddle, he has to take a big step up in class. 

A son of Bolt d’Oro, he has won three of his five career starts, and is a perfect two-for-two over the Churchill Downs surface having broken his maiden over a mile last fall before winning the Gr 3 Street Sense Stakes over 1 1/16th miles in October. 

He fumbled his three-year-old debut by being well beaten and eased in the Gr 3 Holy Bull Stakes over 1 1/16th miles at Gulfstream Park before bouncing back to win the listed Virgina Derby over 1 1/8th miles at Colonial Downs by four lengths.

Trainer Riley Mott gave jockey Jaime Torres the option to ride either Albus or Incredibolt (both owned by Pin Oak Stud) and Preakness winning rider Torres chose to stay with Incredibolt.

While he will need to greatly improve from the Virgina Derby success his affinity for Churchill Downs is a positive and maybe he can live up to his stable nickname of “Little Sovereignty.” 

Represents last year’s winning trainer-and-jockey combo of Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado. Chief Wallabee has only won one of his three starts, which was a seven furlong maiden at Gulfstream, in January, on debut. After his maiden success he was thrown straight onto the Derby Trail with a neck 2nd to Commandment in the Gr 2 Foutain of Youth over 1 1/16th miles at Gulfstream Park and then finished a game third, beaten only ½ length, by Commandment and The Puma in the Gr 1 Florida Derby over 1 1/8th miles at the same track. 

After the Florida Derby, both Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado agreed that something needed to be done with the colt’s propensity to look around in the latter stages of a race and therefore blinkers will be on for the first time in the Derby. 

On the plus side Chief Wallabee has been the “buzz horse” for three weeks straight at Churchill with his works in the blinkers as he does really seem to be concentrating a lot more than he previously had done.

For all the blinkers have helped in the morning there is the question of whether when facing the atmosphere of Derby Day will they cause him to boil over. It is worth noting that the last horse to win the Derby with a blinker change was Sea Hero in 1993 – and his blinkers were taken off. Since then, there have been 30 runners with headgear changes and no winners. 13 Silent Tactic - SCRATCHED 

This son of Into Mischief is the most expensive runner in this year’s race having cost $2.4million as a yearling. Trained by six-times Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert, Potente lived up to his early hype winning his first two races including the Gr 2 San Felipe Stakes over 1 1/16th miles at Santa Anita.

Last time out he set the pace in the Gr 1 Santa Anita Derby over 1 1/8th miles before getting run down by So Happy. He was not really on anyone’s radar for the Derby until last Sunday when he broke the clock with his final work, over the Churchill surface, going five furlongs in 57.77 seconds and then reportedly bouncing straight out the work like he had done nothing. 

It is worth noting that the last horse to break 58 seconds in their final Derby work was subsequent Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, who was also trained by Bob Baffert. Jockey Juan Hernandez, who is having his first ride in the Derby, looks certain to have Potente up with the early speed but there must be a serious doubt about him being able to see out the Derby distance. 

The least experienced runner in the race with only two starts under his belt, albeit both have been victories. As a two-year-old he developed pneumonia and then had a cut that took him out of training until last winter. 

In the previous 151 renewals of the Kentucky Derby only Leonatus, in 1883, has won the Derby having had only two previous career starts.

Emerging Market broke his maiden at Tampa Bay over an extended mile before qualifying for the Derby with a hard-fought head success from Pavlovian in the Gr 2 Louisiana Derby over 1 3/16th miles at The Fair Grounds. 

The strength of that form is open to question, however it is worth noting that the Louisiana Derby has produced a top 4 Derby finisher in nine of the last 15 renewals. Trainer Chad Brown has yet to win a Derby, but he has had three horses placed from his previous nine starters. Brown has openly spoken this week about his concerns regarding his colt’s slight frame and his lack of racing experience. 16 Pavlovain 

The most experienced runner in this year’s field with 10 career starts, but only two victories and neither in graded company. 

This year he won the listed Sunland Derby by a nose over 1 1/16th miles at Sunland Park in New Mexico in February before setting the pace and battling gamely before losing by a head in the Louisiana Derby over 1 1/8th miles at the Fair Grounds to Emerging Market.

Trainer Doug O’Neill and owner John Paul Reddam have teamed up for two Derby successes with Nyquist (2016) and I’ll Have Another (2012).

Jockey Edwin Malonado will be making his Derby debut, but connections gave rider Mario Gutierrez his first Derby winner on his first ride with I’ll Have Another. 

Pavlovian will be part of the early pace scenario and while PP16 isn’t ideal for his run style, most of the main pace is drawn outside with him. 

The UAE representative in the field coming from the stable of Bhupat Seemar. This son of Not This Time was the talk of Meydan this winter with three impressive victories which culminated in a five length romp in the Gr 3 UAE 2000 Guineas over one mile.

Six Speed went on to finish a tired 2nd in the Gr 2 UAE Derby over 1 3/16th miles behind Wonder Dean last time out having set the early pace. He has similar qualities to Seemar’s first Kentucky Derby runner, Summer Is Tomorrow, another pacesetter who still owns the record for the fastest Derby opening quarter mile (21.78 seconds) before weakening to finish last in 2022. 

Locally-based Kentucky Derby winning rider Brian Hernandez Jr gets aboard for the first time and connections are hopeful that Brian can help Six Speed see out the Derby distance. The main expectations from the rumour-mill on the ground is that Six Speed will be the first horse that goes under the wire for the first time. 

The second runner for trainer Brad Cox, Further Ado has won three of his six career starts including over the Churchill surface when he won the Gr 2 Kentucky Jockey Club over 1 1/16th as a two-year-old.

This year he returned to be narrowly denied by The Puma in the Gr 3 Tampa Bay Derby over 1 1/16th miles before winning the Gr 1 Bluegrass Stakes over 1 1/8th miles at Keeneland, routing the field by 11 lengths. Again, like with a few other Derby preps this season, the form of the Bluegrass does not hold much merit and worth remembering that the Bluegrass Stakes has not produced a Derby winner since 2007 when Street Sense won, and no horse has won both races since 1991 when Strike The Gold did the double. 

This son of Gun Runner gets a new jockey now as regular pilot Iran Ortiz Jr has opted to ride Renegade, however the booking of super sub of John Velazquez is certainly no negative, as he won the Kentucky Derby on three occasions.

Johnny V flew in to Churchill last Saturday to ride Further Ado in his final piece of work before heading back to New York to ride at Aqueduct later that afternoon. Further Ado does have some tactical early speed but, from this wide draw, I would expect Johnny V to drop him in and stalk the pace early. 

Trainer Cherie DeVaux is looking to make history as the first female trainer to win the Kentucky Derby and she trains Golden Tempo, a son of Curlin, who has won two of his four career starts. 

His biggest win came in the Gr 3 Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds over 1 1/16th miles before two third placed efforts in the Gr 2 Risen Star and the Gr 2 Louisiana Derby. 

In the Louisiana Derby, Cherie DeVaux added blinkers which seemed to focus and improve Golden Tempo. Expectations are that jockey Jose Ortiz will be rallying late with this deep closer. In the final days before the Derby Cherie DeVaux informed the public that Golden Tempo has cracked heels, but connections are confident that this is not a problem for the horse. Like The Puma, Golden Tempo can be slowly into stride which will not help his cause. 

The first also-eligible to draw into the race with Wednesday’s defection of Silent Tactic. This grey son of Volatile is the lone gelding in the race and bids to become only the tenth gelding to win the race and first since Mine That Bird in 2009. Great White has won two races, both of them on the tapeta surface at Turfway Park including in the Listed John Battaglia Memorial Stakes over 1 1/16th miles, where he beat Fulleffort by a neck. He made his dirt debut in the Gr 1 Bluegrass Stakes where he set the early pace and then was soundly beaten into 5th by 22+ lengths. Breaking from the outside stall will be beneficial for this big, long striding horse, but with a speedy run-style he will have to be used early to get a position. 

Still a maiden after six career starts, but was placed third here at Churchill Downs on debut in November. His only runner-up finish was next time out over 1 1/16th miles at The Fair Grounds. He qualified for this race by finishing one a quarter lengths third behind Albus and Right To Pary in the Gr 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last time out. Appears totally outclassed. 

The Final Verdict:

This looks likely to be one of the most open renewals of the Kentucky Derby this century, in which one of at least five horses could end up going off as the post time favourite in the US at a price as big as 5-1. 

#6 COMMANDMENT rides a four-race winning streak into the Derby, having closed out his prep campaign with three straight stakes victories at Gulfstream, which has cemented his status as the most reliable classic contender this year. He ticks a lot of boxes – a win in the key Derby prep in which he had to get his elbows out to make room for himself, he has won at Churchill Downs already and breeding-wise he looks one of the few horses in this race guaranteed to see out the ten furlong distance. He may also go off a bigger price then he should because Irad Ortiz Jr has jumped ship.

#12 CHIEF WALLABEE has seen the backside of the top pick twice already this year, but he doesn’t need to improve a great deal to reverse form with his old adversary. Historical Derby stats tell us that a headgear change is not a good thing, but Hall Of Fame trainer Bill Mott has an overall 22% strike rate with horses wearing blinkers for the first time and his colt certainly seems to be responding to them in the morning. 

#18 FURTHER ADO, another Irad Ortiz Jr reject, now gets three-times Derby winning rider Johnny V in the saddle – and that is no bad thing. If you are a figures player his 11-length demolition of inferior rivals in the Bluegrass at Keeneland is a standout coming into this race and if he is able to replicate that kind of performance it would be good enough to win. Given his drop-in, stalking run style his wide draw should prove no problem.

#19 GOLDEN TEMPO is the huge price horse to use on the ticket and I will certainly be looking to back him in the extended place markets offered by British bookmakers. Like the top pick he appears to be another horse who breeding-wise looks likely to relish the ten furlong distance and he has consistently stayed on strongly up the long homestretch at the Fair Grounds which is very similar to the one at Churchill Downs. 

#1 RENEGADE is obviously a huge player in this year’s race, and he would have been much higher on my ticket, if he had not drawn the dreaded PP1. Since the new the single starting gate was introduced in 2020, the lowest gate number to win the Derby is PP7. He may be good enough to overcome the inside post, but the continuing issues with his hooves is also a major concern. I will use him on the ticket but only towards the bottom. 

So my five against the field are (in order of preference):#6 Commandment #12 Chief Wallabee #18 Further Ado #19 Golden Tempo #1 Renegade