How To Bet £20 on Saturday: 16-1 chance has Classic claims

The GoingStick reading of 4.2 on the chase course at Warwick on Saturday tells you everything you need to know about how deep the ground is going to be, especially with plenty more rain forecast to hit the track.

When flicking back through the past decade of archive readings at the Midlands venue, I could find only one such low reading - on February 25 last year – when the three chases on the card were run in times 37sec, 42sec and 33sec below standard.

Clearly, conditions are going to sort the men from the boys and Impulsive Star’s record time of 7min 16sec for the 3m5f Wigley Group Classic Handicap Chase, achieved in 2019, is going to be safe for another year. The winner of the £100,000 feature is likely to be nudging somewhere closer to 8 minutes.

What we want is a horse proven in the mud who will gallop all day, preferably with no weight on his back, and the one who fits the bill is Volcano who, as a considerable bonus, is unbeaten in four starts at the track, including twice over course and distance.

Despite ticking all those boxes, the Sheila Lewis-trained grey is chalked up at 16-1 by bet365, presumably because he is languishing 10lb out of the handicap.

But that ignores the fact that this nimble jumper is at least a 10lb better horse at Warwick, and that his flawless record at the venue includes a convincing win off a rating of 125 – the mark which he runs off on Saturday.

Deep ground can also be a great leveller, as that meeting on on February 25 last year proved, when Glorious Lady won the staying handicap chase on the card when 14lb “wrong” at the weights.

Last season, Volcano began the campaign running off 135 but had a miserable time before suddenly reviving in commanding fashion at, yes, you guessed it, Warwick in March. This term he’s got better with each of his four starts, losing out by a neck in a ding-dong finish over 3m at Ludlow last time in a race that was never going to play to all his strengths.

This is a deeper contest, but it suggests the grey is in good heart for his return to his favourite stamping ground. His regular rider, Ben Jones, on board for his past four wins, can make his light weight.

The other pair on my shortlist are Lord Du Mesnil, a thorough stayer who copes well with heavy ground, and Notachance, who seeks to regain the crown he won two years ago. The pair, chalked up at 15-2 and 9-1 respectively, ran creditably behind Le Milos at Bangor a couple of months ago and the form has a glow after the winner followed up in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury.

I may well have a saver on the pair of them, not least because the unpredictable Mr Incredible looks a bad favourite. But Volcano must be the main punt at his chunky price, with Paddy Power and Sky Bet offering five places if you want a safety net.

Le Milos is a Randox Grand National contender for Dan Skelton and the trainer has another in the shape of Ashtown Lad, who landed the Becher Chase on his latest start.

It is little wonder the nine-year-old is favourite for the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier) because he’s versatile regards the ground and rated 9lb lower over the smaller obstacles.

However, Ashtown Lad is better over fences and, with Cheltenham in mind, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Skelton has left a little in the locker and that he would be content with a first-four finish, guaranteeing a slot in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham in March, a race that, incidentally, Pineau Du Re used as a stepping stone to glory at Aintree in 2014.

One who may be more ready for the day is Glimpse Of Gala, a dour stayer who galloped on gamely when beating the hat-trick seeking Coquelicot over 3m at Kempton over Christmas.

Glimpse Of Gala looked an unlikely winner when being rousted along with five to jump that day but she kept responding to the urgings of Bradley Roberts and ended up winning going away by four lengths.

She looks like she could stay any trip you wanted, and I just hope Roberts is alive to the fact there is not a lot of pace signed up in the race. Glimpse Of Gala has made all in the past and there is the prospect of an easy lead being up for grabs in a contest which the JP McManus-owned pair, The Bomber Liston and Sire Du Berlais, are now non-runners.

My other fancy on the card is Snake Roll, a general 13-2 for the Ballymore Leamington Novices' Hurdle.

This is a good renewal of the Grade Two contest but the Lucinda Russell-trained six-year-old looks overpriced after runaway wins at Kelso and Newcastle, the latter on his latest start when relishing being upped to about this trip.

In between, he was also a good staying-on third at Haydock behind Tahmuras, the subsequent Tolworth winner, and the 143-rated Sizing Pottsie, which rates the best piece of form on offer.

Kaleb was a solid fourth in that Haydock race and is interesting, off an initial mark of 125, in the Coral Racing Club Join For Free Handicap Hurdle at Kempton.

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However, there might be an even better-treated runner in the race in Deere Mark, who makes his handicap bow off 119. His efforts in bumpers included a taking defeat of Lallygagg (now rated 132 over hurdles) and he lost his maiden tag over hurdles in pleasing fashion at Hereford last month. That is reflected by the betting, so I will sit it out.

More interesting, for punting purposes, is Harbour Lake in the Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle.

He was unbeaten in his first four completed starts (Timeform assessing the ground to be heavy on two occasions) and has since made the frame in competitive handicaps at Cheltenham (the Greatwood Hurdle) and Aintree.

Neither of those races got to the bottom of him and a true-run race on testing ground – more rain is forecast for Kempton on Saturday morning - will bring his untapped stamina into play. The 12-1 on offer with bet365 is appealing, not least because they are offering six places for each-way players.

2.25 Warwick: £3 win on Snake Roll at a general 13-2

2.40 Kempton: £3 each-way on Harbour Lake at 12-1 with bet365 (six places)

3.00 Warwick: £2 win and £2.50 each-way on Volcano at 16-1 with bet365 (five places)

3.35 Warwick: £4 win on Glimpse Of Gala at 7-2 with bet365

65p Each-Way Lucky 15 on the quartet above plus 25p each-way fourfold