Paddy's Pick 5: Our tips for Saturday's £50,000 game

He’s far from the finished article, but this good prospect holds strong form claims while still offering significant potential for more to come.

Grey Dawning has won four of his five career starts and his novice form reads well here. He looked the winner for most of the straight when runner-up at Aintree on his return, and while the winner of that race disappointed in Grade Two company next time (sent off 11-4) the third finished second in the same race at Sandown. Further down the field, the fifth won next time while the time of the Aintree race was significantly better than the course-and-distance event contested by high-class older hurdlers and won by Dashel Drasher, who has had a great season so far.

Grey Dawning beat good yardstick Lallygag at Exeter on his next start – that one’s sole defeat this term - and then won on handicap debut at Kempton on Boxing Day despite racing too keenly and making novicey errors. The field looked to go too quick and he hit the front plenty soon enough but still stuck on well to the line, once again finishing to good effect. This powerful traveller still has fuel in the tank at the end of his races.

His free-going tendencies were slightly masked in a big-field handicap last time but there is pace on offer here with market rivals Knowsley Road, Givega and Snake Roll having made the running in recent starts. Hopefully he gets a decent set-up and some pace in front of him.

The Skeltons are regularly on the winners’ board at Warwick (trainer Dan has only trained more winners at Uttoxeter) and they have a good Leamington record with two winners from eight runners in the race. Shan Blue also travelled notably well before fading late in the race a few years ago. (TT)

Selection: Grey Dawning.

He's something of a speculative one, but he’s still relatively lightly-raced for his age over jumps and in a race where there are niggles about those towards the top of the market the early 25-1 quotes warrant giving him a second look.

This is a handicap debut over jumps for the dual Grade One winner and one-time Champion Hurdle fancy and, while he’s on a retrieval mission, this is the easiest company he would have kept over obstacles by some way.

Things clearly haven’t gone right so far over fences this term and it’s clear that his profile doesn’t look especially compelling coming into this race, but I’d rather merit the decisiveness in drawing stumps with the chasing campaign early and there’s no doubt that when on song Pentland Hills is a particularly quick and slick jumper who travels very powerfully over hurdles.

The step-up in trip to 2m5f on soft ground would concern more than his recent goings-on over fences – snatching defeat from the jaws of victory when beaten by Ballyandy at Haydock in January 2020 is still fairly vivid – but he stayed well on the Flat and showed that most recently when winning over 1m6f after a mammoth lay-off back in September. It was a modest-enough stayers' handicap at Haydock, but he did well to win from off the pace after a troubled passage and the race has actually worked out pretty nicely.

His sire Motivator also has a much better record with progeny over jumps over intermediate distances (17.6% strike-rate over 2m4f/2m5f, 1.21 A/E) than over the minimum trip (13.7% over 2m-2m1f, 0.88 A/E) and as Pentland Hills gets older it's fair to assume that he may not have the toe to lie up over shorter trips and that going over further may suit better.

Provided he gets cover and settles in this big-field race, I can see him travelling well for a long way and entering the straight with a chance on the soft ground – and potentially worse – that he handles.

Nicky Henderson has a good Lanzarote record and he is the only trainer in the last 25 years to run horses in this race rated 140 or higher. He’s run 12 in total, and two have won, while three have placed to good figures. (TT)

Selection: Pentland Hills.

With the ground heavy at Warwick, this is going to be a real stamina test, and the one who ticks plenty of boxes for a race of this nature is Lord Du Mesnil.

Richard Hobson’s charge has scored twice over a trip just shy of this, including in the Grand National Trial at Haydock two seasons ago and has plenty of high-class, staying handicap chase form next to his name.

He appears at his best in testing conditions and caught the eye on his return to action at Bangor in November when second behind Le Milos, who was successful in the Ladbrokes Trophy on his next outing.

Lord Du Mesnil certainly shaped as though the outing was needed there, and although one slight negative is that he’s not the most consistent, he looks primed to run a big race now with that run under his belt.

Cheekpieces are also re-applied on Saturday and he remains 3lb below his last winning mark, so is certainly handicapped to strike, and this test promises to suit. (HA)

Selection: Lord Du Mesnil.

Innovated took a step forward when scoring on his chasing debut at Down Royal in December, his first outing for 253 days, and should be capable of building on that success here.

The eight-year-old was weak in the market beforehand, which hinted his victory was not expected, and while he did make a couple of mistakes en route to victory, he travelled like the best horse in the race before the lack of a recent run probably took its toll near the line.

This will be just his seventh start under rules, so he will surely have more to offer for his powerful connections this year, and Rachael Blackmore is a positive jockey booking.

He scored over hurdles at this track last season, and both of his victories have been on soft ground, so he should have no problem with the conditions he faces here, while the extra trip promises to suit. (HA)

Selection: Innovated.

Ronald Pump would be a strong contender if recapturing his old form, but he looks regressive now, and the same can be said for Sire Du Berlais who has been beaten twice in this race before and hasn’t exactly looked in love with the game this season.

Ashtown Lad, on the other hand, is on the upgrade and produced a career best to win the Becher Chase last time out.

He’s now rated 144 over fences, so looks nicely treated off a rating of 135 returning to hurdles and went close off this mark when third behind Remastered on his seasonal debut over the smaller obstacles.

He’s gone close on heavy ground in the past and looks the safest option in this Pertemps Qualifier. Best of luck with your selections! (HA)

Selection: Ashtown Lad.

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