The Data Detective: clues and tips for Aintree on Thursday

Jump Index: 7.7. Top Speed: 35.75mph.

Lengths gained jumping past 4 races: 32.59.

The surprise Triumph Hurdle winner, Apolon De Charnie, is not in the line-up but the three horses who chased him home, Maestro Conti, Minella Study and Selma De Vary, all meet again.

In terms of their data at Cheltenham, they are hard to split. Each came from off the pace; each jumped similar (Jump Index scores ranging between 7.7 and 7.9); and none had any excuses, albeit Selma De Vary met a bit of trouble heading to the last.

Minella Study gets the nod, not least because the bookmakers make him the biggest price of the trio.

He was unbeaten heading to Cheltenham and ran a blinder, leading over the last after travelling strongly only to get worn down. He clocked 16.32sec for the final furlong, which was only sixth best of the whole race, whereas the winner managed 15.94sec and Maestro Conti, who pipped him for second, 16.04sec.

It was his first run since giving weight and a walloping to Winston Junior three months earlier, and just maybe that found him out where it mattered most.

Regardless, this track promises to suit the speedy Minella Study even better, with more emphasis on jumping in the closing stages and an extra flight to be navigated overall. He’s a slick jumper and has gained more than 32 lengths with his leaping.

There were only two flights to negotiate in the final 1min 40sec of the Triumph, whereas typically there are three jumps in the final 45sec or so in this contest.

Jump Index: 8.1. Top Speed: 35.62mph.

Lengths gained jumping past 4 races: 26.29. 

This 2m 4f contest seems likely to develop into a match between Lulamba and Koktail Divin, with the latter getting the vote courtesy of his more reliable jumping and proven stamina.

Koktail Divin ran well when sixth in the Brown Advisory last time, but you don’t need the data to tell you that he was betrayed by a lack of stamina. That contributed to a tired leap at the last (he got only a 6 out of 10 for efficiency), and him losing three places late on.

He had previously trounced Kiss Will by 21 lengths over 2m 5f at Leopardstown over Christmas when he gained 15 lengths with his superb jumping, which earned him a Jump Index score of 8.9 out of 10. The distant runner-up was in the process of running a big race when falling three out in the Irish National on Monday.

Back to that kind of trip, and with goodish ground suiting, Koktail Divin promises to make a bold bid.

Lulamba is the odds-on favourite after his third in the Arkle last month.

He has been crying out for this longer trip, but his jumping remains a niggle. It was better than previously at Cheltenham, but his error two out in the heat of battle, when he lost 6.6mph and took 2.62sec, cost him any chance and shows he still has something to learn.

Jump Index: 8.5. Top Speed: 36.66mph. 

Jump Index rankings past 8 chases races: 11111421.

Jango Baie is a short price after chasing home Gaelic Warrior in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month but, naturally, the seven-year-old had a tough race and preference is for Spillane’s Tower, a class act in his own right who has had a light campaign and can make his freshness count.

There are few better jumpers of a fence in training than Spillane’s Tower, who has a Jump Index of 8.5 and routinely takes lengths off his rivals in the air.

That was again the case in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham last time, when he swiped 6.34 lengths with his leaping and won at the main expense of L’Homme Presse and Grey Dawning with something to spare. That’s been his sole start over fences this season.

His run to split Fact To File and Galopin Des Champs in the 2024 John Durkan is probably still the best bit of form on offer in the race.

Jump Index: 6.9. Top Speed: 37mph. 

Lengths gained jumping last time: 24.31.

Barton Snow is on a roll and put up a career best when landing the Hunters’ Chase at Cheltenham last month, tanking through the race and overcoming an error at the final fence to edge out Its On The Line by a neck with his rider only using hands and heels.

Overall, his jumping was dynamic, and he gained more than 24 lengths. His trainer said afterwards “This is an Aintree horse and today was a bonus”. The data supports his theory, with the nine-year-old versatile regards trip and ground. 

Its On The Line reopposes and seeks to repeat his win of two years ago.

However, his jumping was not as fluent as it usually is over orthodox fences (he lost 6mph or more at three fences, which is unusual for him) that day and the dryer conditions this time (it was soft in 2024) will not help him, as stamina has looked his strong suit.

Jump Index: 7.9. Top Speed: 36.72mph mph. 

Lowest Finishing Speed Percentage: 103.32%. 

The New Lion and Brighterdaysahead had to settle for supporting roles behind Lossiemouth in the Champion Hurdle but should dominate in her absence. 

Preference is for the former, who should be much more at home over this extra half mile. He’s unbeaten in four starts over this sort of trip and it could be he could stretch out over a bit further, too, as the data shows he’s never been stopping when winning over this intermediate distance. 

Brighterdaysahead (Jump Index 8.6) is a terrific jumper and better than The New Lion (7.9) in that department, but it may not be enough for her to repel the Skelton runner.

Jump Index: 7.2. Top Speed: 36.67mph. 

Lengths gained jumping past 2 years in this race: 26.

Sans Bruit has peaked in this race for the past two years and it again looks to have been something of a plan for him, as he resurfaces after 81 days off. 

The zestful front-runner got a Jump Index score of 8.1 and gained more than five lengths with his jumping when dominating last year. He was fastest in furlongs 2, 6, 15 and 16, with nothing getting near his Top Speed of 34.52mph in the penultimate furlong. 

He had been even more flamboyant when scoring in 2024, getting a Jump Index score of 9.2 and stealing almost 20 lengths in the air. He was fastest in furlongs 1,2,7, 15 and 16. 

Those triumphs were achieved off a mark of 130, and he’s only 4lb higher on this occasion after some run-of-the-mill efforts this term,like last season. He went on to gain a valuable prize at Plumpton after his victory 12 months ago, off a mark of 139, so he could well pull down the pants of the handicapper for a third time.