The 2026 Grand National: RaceiQ runner-by-runner guide
By Andy Stephens
Last Updated: Wed 1 Apr 2026
It never gets any easier identifying the Randox Grand National winner, does it? Or maybe it does.
For starters, we only have a maximum of 34 runners to choose from these days, instead of 40, which instantly gives us 15% fewer contenders to juggle. And, of course, we now also have the help of the RaceiQ data.
Watching what happens in races is imperative, of course, but there’s only so much our peepers can do, especially in a frenetic race like the National, when it can be hard enough to identify exactly where your horse is at any given stage, let alone gauge exactly how he/she and 33 others are doing at every moment.
RaceiQ now puts in the hard yards here and takes away all the guesswork. It is helping better understand everything that is happening and has become a juicy bit of the form cocktail.
It uses GPS tracking data to assess how horses travel through each section of races. Each tracker collects the location of each horse at a rate of 18 GPS data points per second. And with more than 50 metrics modelled by Data Scientists, using AI and eight billion datapoints, we get fabulous insight like never before.
Raceiq Jump Index
Raceiq Explainer
Top speeds, stride patterns, sectionals for every furlong, entry and exit speeds at jumps, speed lost jumping and recovery times after the fences are among a multitude of metrics. And RaceiQ also calculates lengths gained (and lost) jumping, plus gives overall marks out of 10 in this vital area, plus an easy-to-understand career Jump Index score.
As a general rule, anything lower than 6 out of 10 is below average. Between 6 and 6.9 is middle of the road; 7 to 7.7 is efficient bordering on very handy. Anything above that and you have a most proficient jumper on your hands who, invariably, will start with an advantage.
Which brings us neatly onto the Lengths Gained Jumping metric, which can yield some headline-grabbing numbers. However, it hinges on your horse’s prowess at getting from A to B relative to those he is up against it. So, in theory, you can jump badly and still gain ground if your opponents jump even worse.
It’s the Jump Index which gives the best overall barometer, with Finishing Speed Percentages (FSP) also helping us idenitigy strong/weak finishers.
So, let’s get stuck into the data. Most efficient jumpers at the top, least efficient at the bottom. There are 41 horses listed below, so seven will not run. The final declarations will be revealed on Wednesday April 8, and we will continue to update this column.
Monty's Star Wins At Punchestown In Late 2023
Monty's Star
Jump Index:8.6. Past 3 Jump scores: 8.0, 8.6 & 9.2.
Age: 9. Weight: 11st 3lb. General odds: 20-1.
Monty’s Star has had 11 races over fences and never scored lower than an 8 out of 10 for his jumping.
He’s a big unit but agile, with the RaceiQ data detecting just two indifferent jumps over the 195 fences he has tackled – at the ninth in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham last season, when he finished fourth, and at the final fence in this season’s Irish Gold Cup, when he was fading after being in the thick of the action a long way.
He has gained ground at 134 of those fences, which is some feat given that he has mostly contested Grade One races up against the sport’s cream.
He’s not won since New Year’s Eve in 2023 (watch above), but he will have a class edge over many of his rivals and this will be only the second handicap he has contested.
His ability to stay the trip is an unknown, like so many in the field, but his low stride cadence (typically about 2 strides per second) offers hope on that front. His high-class half-brother, Monalee, stayed on well when a close fourth in the 2020 Gold Cup.
Spillane's Tower
Jump Index: 8.5. Past 3 Jump scores: 7.5, 8.3 & 8.8.
Age: 8. Weight: 11-8 . Odds: 25-1.
Spillane’s Tower is one of only about ten horses trained by Jimmy Mangan, in Ireland, but the trainer already has one Grand National winner to his name in Monty’s Pass, who won in 2003.
This lad is one of the best jumpers of a fence in training, with his only score below 8.3 coming in last season’s King George VI Chase when the ground was on the lively side for him. Spillane’s Tower operates well on soft going and was a late non-runner from last month’s Gold Cup because the drying conditions were deemed unsuitable for him.
He’s got two Grade One wins on his CV and you could argue that his effort to split Fact To File and Galopin Des Champs in the 2024 John Durkan is the strongest bit of form on offer. Not untypically, his Finishing Speed Percentage was best that day. Won the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham last time, when he gained a vital 6.34 lengths with his jumping.
Champ Kiely
Jump Index: 8.4. Past 3 Jump scores: 8.4, 8.6 & 8.6.
Age: 10. Weight: 11-1. Odds: 66-1.
“Champ Kiely loves jumping fences,” Paul Townend told Racing TV viewers after the gelding had won at Navan 13 months ago. Little has changed in the interim, with six Jump Index scores of between 8.1 and 9.0 being achieved. The highlight was his decisive defeat of Ballyburn at Punchestown about this time last year. This season has not gone to script for him, though, and there are other more obvious stayers in the line-up.
Banbridge
Jump Index: 8.2. Past 3 Jump scores: 9.2, 8.4 & 7.9.
Age: 10. Weight: 11-11. Odds: 50-1.
His accurate jumping is an asset, and he came within a nose of retaining his King George VI Chase crown over Christmas. However, he was underwhelming at Cheltenham last time and there’s nothing in his data, or pedigree, to suggest he will relish this kind of stamina test.
Panic Attack
Jump Index: 8.1. Past 3 Jump scores: 8.5, 8.7 & 8.3.
Age: 10. Weight: 10-5. Odds: 16-1.
The last mare to win the Grand National was Nickel Coin, in 1951, although not many have tried in the interim. Panic Attack seeks to bridge a 75-year gap and has already won two of this season’s biggest handicaps in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Coral Gold Cup.
Her jumping has been her biggest weapon, with about 62 lengths gained in four races this term. She was also the strongest finisher when winning over 3m 2f at Newbury in November, encouraging her connections to head here.
She also ran well when third in the Mares’ Chase at Cheltenham last month, which should have put her spot-on for this assignment.
Firefox
Jump Index: 8.0. Past 3 Jump scores: 7.4, 8.7 & 7.6.
Age: 8. Weight: 11-4. Odds: 50-1.
Firefox showed new stamina reserves when a staying-on fourth in the Irish Gold Cup in February, when third fastest over the final half-mile of a true-run race, but he ran out of puff when sixth in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham last time. The fact he’s also entered in the Topham, over 2m 5f, suggests his connections also think he may have stamina limitations.
Iroko
Jump Index: 8.0. Past 3 Jump scores: 8.4, 7.9 & 8.2.
Age: 8. Weight: 11-1. Odds: 12-1.
He was a fine fourth last year after his jockey passed a late fitness test and the combination might have got even closer but for a sticky start when getting scores of 6.7, 6.8 and 6.7 over the first three jumps. By comparison, Nick Rockett, the winner, did not score lower than a 6.9 at any of the 30 fences.
Iroko ended up further back than ideal in the first half of the race before finding a groove. For instance, he got a mark of 9.7 at the 17th fence, when he gained 1.58 lengths in a flash, and a 9.1 at 28th. And he lost an average of only 3.98mph at each fence. Only four other horses dipped under 4mph.
His first two runs this season were perfect preps but his latest effort at Cheltenham was dull, especially as he lost ground at nine of final ten fences. However, he subsequently scoped “dirty” and so can probably be forgiven that run.
Stablemates Iroko, left, and Jagwar pictured at home together last month
Jagwar
Jump Index: 8.0. Past 3 Jump scores: 7.9, 8.3 & 8.2.
Age: 7. Weight: 10-10. Odds: 10-1.
Solid jumper who has put up a sequence of excellent efforts at Cheltenham, including when a staying-on second in the Ultima last time. A blunder the eighth fence when in rear cost him dear that day, as he lost 6.71mph and 1.64 lengths. His mark of 4.8 for that jump is easily the lowest among the 132 fences he has tackled.
The trip is a big question mark for him (unraced beyond 3m 1f) but he's favourably handicapped, being 5lb well in, and had the highest Finishing Speed percentage in seven of his eight races over fences.
He also clocked the fastest final furlong in five of those. That hints that none of his races have got to the bottom of him. His half-brother, D’Jango, has won over 3m5f and been placed over 4m at Cheltenham.
Perceval Legallois
Jump Index: 7.8. Past 3 Jump scores: 6.9, 6.3 & 8.7.
Age: 9. Weight: 10-9. Odds: 50-1.
Fell at the ninth last year when a well-fancied 10-1 chance but, on the plus side, had gained 3.51 lengths with his jumping before that exit. He slips in under the radar after two anonymous runs this term and is worth a second look at much bigger odds than 12 months ago.
Grangeclare West
Jump Index: 7.7. Past 3 Jump scores: 8.1, 7.4 & 7.5.
Age: 10. Weight: 11-10. Odds: 10-1.
Looked an unlucky loser in the National last year when his worst jumps came at the final two fences. At the penultimate obstacle, he lost 6.86mph and took 2sec to get back up to speed after slowing into it. Worse was to come at the last when he pitched on landing. That lost him 7.83mph and it took him 2.7sec to recover.
By way of comparison, Nick Rockett, the winner, swiped three-and-a-half lengths on him before you could say Numbersixvalverde, losing only 4.03mph and taking just 0.46sec to get back up to speed.
Grangeclare West got scores of 6.2 and 4.6 for those last two leaps but had been so proficient beforehand that, overall, he was seventh best jumper in the race. He would surely have won but for those blips as he was fastest in each of last two furlongs despite having to get his engine back up to full speed.
This season has been a bit of a mix for him, but he snapped a lengthy losing run last time when winning the Bobbyjo Chase last time when Paul Townend was aboard him for first time in two years. Townend boasts five wins from six starts on him but faces a dilemma as to who to ride, having guided I Am Maximus to glory in 2024 and been second on him last year.
L'Homme Presse
Jump Index: 7.7. Past 3 Jump scores: 8.4, 6.7 & 7.4.
Age: 11. Weight: 11-8. Odds: 66-1.
He was ruled out of the race by connections on Wednesday.
Final Orders
Jump Index: 7.7. Past 3 Jump scores: 7.7, 7.8 & 8.1.
Age: 8. Weight: 10-5. Odds: 28-1.
Final Orders has had 70 races (no other horse in the race has had anything like that number) and fallen just once, when contesting the Topham over the Grand National fences in 2023.
He has shone in cross-country races run at a steady tempo this season, enjoying his finest hour when winning at the Cheltenham Festival on his latest start. He gained more than 28 lengths with his jumping on that occasion and has swiped a remarkable 92 lengths in his past four starts. This is likely to be a very different test, though, and anything but goodish ground would also be a negative for him.
Blaze The Way
Jump Index: 7.5. Past 3 Jump scores: 8.1, 7.7 & 8.3.
Age: 10. Weight: 10-4. Odds: 100-1.
An improved round of jumping helped him land a steadily run 3m2f handicap on good ground at Cheltenham in December, when his exit speeds averaged almost 29mph. His leaping has also been fine in his two subsequent starts, but he has been running on empty by the finish of those with his Finishing Speed Percentage dipping below 100% each time. He’s far from an obvious stayer to judge by those efforts.
Nick Rockett
Jump Index: 7.5. Past 3 Jump scores: 8.3, 8.4 & 6.3.
Age: 9. Weight: 11-11. Odds: 20-1.
Put up the jumping performance of his life to take the spoils last year. He gained more than 20 lengths with his leaping, excelling in all areas, and that made all the difference in a close finish.
In addition, he was fastest over the final half mile to repel the emphatic 2024 winner, I Am Maximus.
This season has not been straightforward, though, as he’s only run once, when shaping encouragingly in a slow-run race at Down Royal last month under considerate handling. That’s not an ideal prep for the defending champ and we probably saw him at full capacity 12 months ago.
NICK ROCKETT'S GRAND NATIONAL DATA
French Dynamite
Jump Index: 7.4. Past 3 Jump scores: 6.9, 7.7 & 7.3.
Age: 11. Weight: 10-10. Odds: 100-1.
Proved his stamina for 3m when taking the Munster National at Limerick in the autumn and seemed to enjoy the Cross-Country fences at Cheltenham last year, when gaining 13 lengths. However, he did not stay in the latter race, over 3m 5f, and there’s little in his form, or data, to suggest he will stay so far.
Imperial Saint
Jump Index: 7.4. Past 3 Jump scores: 7.8, 7.9 & 7.6.
Age: 8. Weight: 10-2. Odds: 66-1.
Has run some of his best races on the Mildmay Course at Aintree (three wins from five starts) and now gets the chance to show what he can do over the bigger fences.
He clearly enjoys flat, left-handed tracks because he also landed the Peter Marsh over 3m 2f at Haydock on his penultimate start. That race was more about speed than stamina, with his Finishing Speed Percentage being almost 108%.
Moreover, none of his seven siblings have been stayers. Imperial Saint lost ground at 13 of the 20 fences when failing to make an impact in the Ultima at Cheltenham last time, although it could be he didn’t enjoy the undulations. He is owned by a syndicate run by Richard Johnson, the former jockey, who rode in the National a record 21 times but never won it.
Mr Vango
Jump Index: 7.4. Past 3 Jump scores: 8.4, 6.6 & 7.3.
Age: 10. Weight: 10-12. Odds: 66-1.
There cannot be many taller horses in training and he coped easily with the Grand National fences in December when beaten a nose in the Becher. He gained 8.13 lengths with his jumping that day and was keeping up a sequence of fine efforts in top staying handicap chases.
However, he has run poorly on his past two starts and, given he’s all about stamina, could get drawn out of his comfort zone. Coincidence or not, he has been pulled up in the three races where he has clocked his top speeds.
Now Is The Hour
Jump Index: 7.4. Past 3 Jump scores: 8.4, 6.7 & 7.4.
Age: 9. Weight: 10-7. Odds: 33-1.
His jumping data is a bit of a jumble, reflected by his past three efforts, and his stride cadence is a niggle as his maximum strides per second have often been highest in his races.
That said, this second-season novice ran well when fifth in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham last time, having previously snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in the Thyestes at Gowran.
He would have gone close in the National Hunt Chase last season too, had he not exited two out (approached that fence faster than any of the others) although the data recognises that the winner of the race, Haiti Couleurs (more of him below), was moving 0.64mph quicker at that obstacle and saw things out well.
The Real Whacker
Jump Index: 7.4. Past 3 Jump scores: 8.0, 7.5 & 7.8.
Age: 10. Weight: 10-9. Odds: 100-1.
Had an official rating of 162 after landing the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham three years ago but he’s been more miss than hit since then, with his slipping to 151. He’s lost ground with his jumping in 12 of his past 13 starts (fences and hurdles) and headgear has failed to relight his fire in his past two races.
Haiti Couleurs
Jump Index: 7.3. Past 3 Jump scores: 7.0, 6.4 & 7.5
Age: 9. Weight: 11-10. Odds: 16-1.
Rebecca Curtis - Haiti Couleurs - Fairyhouse
Rebecca Curtis, the trainer of Haiti Couleurs, reflects on Irish Grand National glory
This stout stayer gained more than 20 lengths with his jumping when winning last season’s Irish National and he swiped another 8.5 when scooping the Welsh National in late December.
However, he was helped by heavy ground in Ireland, while at Chepstow nothing in the field jumped with great elan. He found the Gold Cup a bridge too far last month, when pulled up, and needs to bounce back off a career-high handicap mark.
Handstands
Jump Index: 7.3. Past 3 Jump scores: 6.2, 6.9 & 7.6.
Age: 7. Weight: 10-13. Odds: 100-1.
His Grade One win as a novice last season came at the main expense of Jango Baie, suggesting he’s on a handy handicap mark, but it’s not that simple. He cut out quickly when pulled up at Cheltenham last time with his data casting doubt over his jumping prowess and stamina.
I Am Maximus
Jump Index: 7.3. Past 3 Jump scores: 7.6; 7.8 & 7.7.
Age: 10. Weight: 11-12 (top weight - official rating 168). Odds: 8-1.
Relentless stayer who overcame some indifferent jumping when winning in 2024 and almost pulled off the same trick last year.
In both races, he particularly struggled with the fences in the second third of the race. Twelve months ago, he lost an average of 5.45mph at each fence, the 29th worst in the line-up. It had been a similar story the year before when he lost 4.9mph, ranking him 21st.
He had lost ten lengths with his jumping up until three out last year before clawing back some of that in the closing stages. Overall, he’s surrendered 120 lengths with his leaping in his past 12 races.
It’s not that he is prove to terrible blunders, more that he accumulates lost ground with general slowness/carefulness. But he compensates for that by being able to keep galloping when most others have cried enough.
I AM MAXIMUS: HIS 2026 GRAND NATIONAL DATA
Three Card Brag
Jump Index: 7.3. Past 3 Jump scores: 7.3, 7.4 & 7.0.
Age: 9. Weight: 11st. Odds: 50-1.
Had the distinction of clocking the Top Speed in last year’s race (33.9mph) and his average entry speed at each fence was also best (28.82mph).
However, he got tired (FSP 90.58%) and trailed home eleventh. He lost an average of 4.86mph at each fence and, overall, his jumping was a mixed bag.
This season, he won at Cheltenham in October and chased home Panic Attack in the Coral Gold Trophy at Newbury, before disappointing last time.
Stellar Story
Jump Index: 7.2. Past 3 Jump scores: 6.8, 7.5 & 7.5.
Age: 9. Weight: 10-11. Odds: 25-1.
Stellar Story, left, after winning at Cheltenham in 2024 (focusonracing.com)
Looked a thorough stayer when clawing back The Jukebox Man to win in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle two years ago, when much the fastest in the final furlong, and, since being switched to fences, the data confirms that his jumping has gradually improved.
He finished runner-up in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase last season and ran as well as could be expected when third to Grangeclare West in the Bobbyjo Chase last time. He gets a hefty 21lb pull in the weights with the winner and that makes him interesting, with the Irish handicapper having him on a 2lb higher mark (it’s usually the other way around).
Keep in mind, though, that he has a choppy action and softish ground may be important to him. If the umbrellas are up on the big day, his camp are unlikely to be complaining.
Top Of The Bill
Jump Index: 7.2. Past 3 Jump scores: 7.5, 7.2 & 7.4.
Age: 10. Weight: 10-5. Odds: 100-1.
Tends to blow hot and cold but ran a personal best when runner-up in Haydock’s Grand National Trial over 3m 4f at Haydock last time, when he gained 9.66 lengths with his jumping. That was a puzzling affair, though, with all the runners finishing in a huddle, and he is now in much hotter comapny without having an secrets.
Johnnywho
Jump Index: 7.1. Past 3 Jump scores: 6.3, 7.0 & 7.7.
Age: 9. Weight: 10-4. Odds: 16-1.
2026 Trustmarque Ultima Handicap Chase - Johnnywho
Enjoy a full replay of last month's Ultima Chase
He’s 6lb well-in at the weights after his victory in the Ultima Chase at Cheltenham last time, having had a breathing procedure and when equipped with first-time cheekpieces.
However, there are a couple of red flags. The first is his jumping, which lacks some consistency, and the second is his lack of highest Finishing Speed Percentages, which points to him not being the strongest when it matters most. Aintree’s long run in demands that horses roll up their sleeves and could give him an issue, although I recall thinking similar when Corach Rambler, who also excelled in the Ultima, won in 2023.
Spanish Harlem
Jump Index: 7.1. Past 3 Jump scores: 6.1, 7.2 & 7.5.
Age: 8. Weight: 11-3. Odds: 50-1.
Owned by the race sponsor, so this race will have been ringed in his calendar for a long while.
Has had an eventful time in staying chases over the past year or so, scooping the Kerry National at Listowel in September (gained 12.58 lengths with his jumping) and having the Thyestes Chase at his mercy when unseating his rider at the final fence (had gained 9.66 lengths up until that stage).
He ran poorly either side of the Thyestes and it could be the handicapper is now in charge.
Marble Sands
Jump Index: 7.1. Past 3 Jump scores: 8.0, 6.7 & 7.2.
Age: 10. Weight: 10-5. Odds: 100-1.
Jumped OK over the National fences in the Topham at Aintree last year, although he only gained ground at one of the final seven fences and finished in the middle of the pack.
He showed a new side when pouncing from off the pace to win over 3m 3f at Cheltenham in November, but the leaders went off overly hard and he did lose six lengths with his leaping. Has since been put in his place at Wetherby and others are more compelling.
Gorgeous Tom
Jump Index: 7.1. Past 3 Jump scores: 6.8, 6.7 & 6.9.
Age: 8. Weight: 10-9. Odds: 25-1.
Gorgeous Tom lets fly (Healy Racing)
Useful novice who ran was eye-catching fourth in the Coral Gold Cup Trophy after being left standing at the start. That left him playing catch-up and he was still only 14th after 2m 5f, in a race where the first three filled those positions from halfway.
There’s stamina in his pedigree, too, and the yard know what is required to hit the jackpot here.
He was not disgraced over 2m 5f at Leopardstown last time, when tapped for toe in the closing stages or was possibly not fully wound up. On the downside, his jumping is OK without being a big weapon and his stride cadence is a bit higher than ideal.
High Class Hero
Jump Index: 7.1. Past 3 Jump scores: 7.0, 7.5 & 6.5
Age: 9. Weight: 10-11. Odds: 66-1.
The Grade One-winning hurdler was a useful novice last season and signed off his campaign with a close third in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, when sent off favourite. High Class Hero gained ten lengths with his jumping that day and finished off third strongest, hinting he could be a future Aintree horse.
He has been underwhelming in three starts on deep ground this term but did run loose before the start on his latest start and it increasingly looks like he does not enjoy muddy conditions. Could raise a few eyebrows if the going is not too soft.
Beauport
Jump Index: 7.0. Past 3 Jump scores: 7.7, 8.4 & 6.3.
Age: 10. Weight: 10-11. Odds: 100-1.
Runs in the colours of Corbiere, the 1983 National winner, and he’s a big-priced outsider to consider as he was in contention a long way last year before fading in the home straight after being too keen. He won the Midlands National in 2024 and so stamina should not be an issue.
His jumping up near the head of affairs 12 months ago was a joy. After 11 fences, he had gained a whopping 14 lengths, but just used up too much energy achieving that. Up to and including the 27th fence, he had gained ground at 24 obstacles and pinched 21.26 lengths. Then he hit the wall, with his speed recovery times falling through the floor.
He ended up coming home 14.26sec (62¾ lengths) behind the winner. If he can curb some of his enthusiasm, then he could stay in the thick of things longer this time.
Gerri Colombe
Jump Index: 7.0. Past 3 Jump scores: 6.3, 7.3 & 5.9.
Age: 10. Weight: 11-10. Odds: 33-1.
Won his first eight races and was a gallant runner-up to Galopin Des Champs in the 2024 Gold Cup. However, he’s since had injury problems and faces a tough task turning back the clock.
He got back to winning ways in a minor affair at Down Royal last time, but it was disconcerting the way he kept jumping left and he got a Jump Index score of only 5.9. Even when he ran well in the Gold Cup, his leaping (lost 6.71 lengths) left something to be desired.
Twig
Jump Index: 6.9. Past 3 Jump scores: 6.6, 7.3 & 5.6.
Age: 11. Weight: 10-4. Odds: 66-1.
He managed to win over the National fences in December, when landing the Becher Chase despite losing 5.44 lengths with his jumping.
His lack of efficiency over the obstacles was not a surprise after his travails in last year’s National, when he lost ground at each of the first 15 fences. He almost averaged losing a length at each obstacle. He’s a quick strider, too, and his chances of ever being at his best over 4m 2f look slim.
Captain Cody
Jump Index: 6.8. Past 3 Jump scores: 7.8, 5.5 and 6.0.
Age: 8. Weight: 10-10. Odds: 25-1.
He was given an audacious hold-up ride when winning the Scottish Grand National last spring. That was quite a performance as he clocked the Top Speed in the race (33mph), had the best FSP (106.89%) and gained 12.36 with his jumping.
The last Scottish National winner to go on to glory at Aintree was Earth Summit, in 1998, although his success at Ayr had come in 1994.
This season has not got to plan for Captain Cody, with fingers burnt along the way, but it could be that he revives on spring ground.
Lecky Watson
Jump Index: 6.8. Past 3 Jump scores: 7.6, 6.8 & 6.4.
Age: 8. Weight: 11-2. Odds: 50-1.
He was one of last season’s top staying novices with the highlight being his victory in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham.
The data makes it plain, though, that he’s much better at jumping hurdles than fences. He’s got a score of 8 out of 10 when tackling the former.
There’s nothing in his numbers to suggest he is suddenly going to bounce back with a bang, albeit he had had a difficult task at the weights at Fairyhouse last time.
Jordans
Jump Index: 6.7. Past 3 Jump scores: 7.5, 7.7 & 6.3.
Age: 7. Weight: 10-8. Odds: 28-1.
His only win over fences, from ten starts, was achieved in October 2024, although he was a good second to Caldwell Potter over 3m 1f at this meeting last year when keeping on well and clocking almost 33mph in the closing stages.
His data, stride cadence (average of 2.14 per second 12 months ago) and breeding suggest this trip could be beyond him.
Answer To Kayf
Jump Index: 6.6. Past 3 Jump scores: 6.8, 6.6 & 6.8.
Age: 10. Weight: 10-8. Odds: 50-1.
Has been running well in the mud this winter, landing the Troytown Chase at Navan in November and being a fair fourth in the Bobbyjo Chase last time when having a stiff task at the weights.
He lost ground with his jumping at each of the first ten fences in the latter race, though, and has not managed a Jump Index score of higher than 6.9 in his eight races over fences.
Favori De Champdou
Jump Index: 6.6. Past 3 Jump scores: 7.2, 6.6 & 7.4.
Age: 11. Weight: 11-1. Odds: 33-1.
Trailed home last of 15 finishers in the Irish National last year, when he surrendered almost 24 lengths with his jumping and got an overall score of just 6.1.
It was a calamitous round as he gained ground at just one of the 24 fences.
However, since falling at Cheltenham in December, he has been a different proposition, winning successive notable prizes before beating all bar Final Orders at the Cheltenham Festival last month. His jumping numbers have improved, especially last time, and it's encouraging he has enjoyed the challenges of cross-country racing.
Quai De Bourbon
Jump Index: 6.3. Past 3 Jump scores: 5.3, 6.5 & 6.1.
Age: 7. Weight: 10-9. Odds: 40-1.
Letters of the alphabet feature prominently in his form figures, which is never a good thing, but he was a gallant third in the Irish National last year and on his latest start ran well when filling the same position over an extended 2m 5f at Leopardstown, when equipped with first-time cheekpieces.
That said, his jumping still lacked polish, with the Speed Lost siren going off on several occasions. He lost 5.85mph or more (there was an 8.16mph along the way) on six occasions, and he simply will not get away with that here.
Pied Piper
Jump Index: 6.3. Past 3 Jump scores: 6.9, 6.2 & 5.5.
Age: 11. Weight: 10-3. Odds: 100-1.
Gordon Elliott nominated him as an “interesting contender” when the weights were revealed in February, even though he had fallen on his previous start at Gowran.
He’s since suffered another tumble, at Cheltenham, when it was not exactly a case of “love at first sight” with the Cross-Country fences.
Pied Piper had already lost more than ten lengths with his jumping when departing. He’s far from certain to stay and can also be a weak finisher, too.
Oscars Brother
Jump Index: 5.9. Past 3 Jump scores: 7.0, 4.9 & 6.4.
Age: 8. Weight: 10-13. Odds: 16-1.
And finally . . .
There are far more fluent jumpers in the line-up than Oscars Brother but he’s a progressive novice blessed with plenty of stamina. He was game when a staying-on fourth in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham last time, having won each of his three previous starts.
His slow leaps are becoming a habit, though, and it now seems unlikely he will jump the bigger obstacles as well as he does the smaller ones (his Jump Index Hurdle score is 7 out of 10).
He surrendered 18 lengths last time, losing ground at 16 of the first 17 fences. The area which consistently costs him is “Speed Lost”, as he decelerated 6mph or more on six occasions.
He had also lost 23 lengths in his previous three runs. Sticky jumps at Aintree will leave him swimming against the tide but his supporters can live in hope that the spruce fences will put a spring in his step.
VERDICT
To follow when the final field is confirmed.
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More data about this year's line up
Winning form over the Grand National fences (3): I Am Maximus, Nick Rockett and Twig.
Placed form over the Grand National fences: Grangeclare West (3rd), I Am Maximus (2nd), Iroko (4th) & Mr Vango (2nd).
Cheltenham Festival winners (10): Banbridge, Final Orders, Haiti Couleurs, Iroko, Jagwar, Johnnywho, Lecky Watson, L’Homme Presse, Stellar Story & The Real Whacker.
Grade One winners (9): Banbridge (3), Gerri Colombe (4), Grangeclare West, I Am Maximus, Lecky Watson, L’Homme Presse, Spillane’s Tower (2), Stellar Story & The Real Whacker.
Greys (likely to be only one): Marble Sands.
Mares (1): Panic Attack.
JP McManus-owned runners (green & gold silks):
Most races won: Banbridge (11), Final Orders (11) & Gerri Colombe (11).
Most prize money won: I Am Maximus £1,102,703.
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