Queen Elizabeth II Stakes: runner-by-runner guide and tip

There hasn’t been an Irish-trained winner of the race of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes since 2016 but they look to hold a strong hand in Saturday’s renewal with Paddington and Tahiyra dominating the ante-post betting.

The pair, both sired by Siyouni, have not stood still since winning the Irish 2000 Guineas and Irish 1000 Guineas, respectively, at The Curragh in May. Between them, they have eight Group One triumphs between them, and their first clash is eagerly anticipated.

This is a race that is generally won by the Classic generation. Eleven of the past 15 renewals have been won by a three-year-old, despite older horses having far more challengers (88 to 69).

Since Champions Day was switched to Ascot in 2011, nine QEII winners had won on their previous start, six of them in Group One races. The other trio had been placed at the highest level. Inspiral and Tahiyra are the only runners who delivered last time out.

Five of the 12 runnings of the mile showpiece have been won by the highest-rated runner in the line-up, with Frankel, Excelebration, Charm Spirit, Solow and Roaring Lion all justifying their lofty marks. Paddington is the top-rated runner this time.

The winner’s pre-race ratings have been 135, 125, 124, 122, 124, 120, 113, 127, 115, 119, 121 and 111. Here's a guide to all the contenders.

Official rating: 113. Timeform rating: 125. Odds: 22-1.

Connections supplemented the grey on Monday at a cost of £70,000, which looks a bold move given the majority of the opposition are rated superior to him. Weighed against that, though, is his effectiveness in the mud, and the rain forecast for the second half of this week means the going is likely to border somewhere between soft and heavy. Angel Bleu's two Group One wins as a two-year-old were achieved on soft going and his form on soft/heavy reads 111151. I'll still be surprised if he is good enough to beat classier rivals who have also shown their form in testing conditions, but the ambition has to be admired. He will need to finish in the first three for it to be an immediate profitable exercise, with the fourth home getting about £62,000.

Official rating: 112. Timeform rating: 123. Odds: 66-1.

Finished a creditable fourth in this last year, without every threatening to win. He’s failed to make much impact this season, including up in trip on his past three starts. Headgear hasn’t helped revive his fortunes, either.

Official rating: --. Timeform rating: 127. Odds: 14-1.

He chalked up five wins in shallower waters last year and has taken his form to another level this term, despite failing to get his head in front. I thought he shaped like the best horse in the race when a close third in the Prix D’Ispahan at Longchamp in May and he then chased home Paddington in the Sussex Stakes (winner got first run) before finishing a solid third in the Prix du Moulin. The gelding has got a win at the highest level in him, but probably not this one, although he is at home in deep ground.

Official rating: --. Timeform rating: 129. Odds: 7-1.

An exuberant front-runner, he won his first four races in France this year by more than 17 lengths and looked like making all in the French Derby, as well, only for Ace Impact to sweep past in the closing stages. He’s since had to settle for silver, too, in the Jacques le Marois (overhauled by Inspiral) and Prix du Moulin (split Sauterne and Facteur Cheval) and may again simply end up teeing the race up for somebody else. The fact that he’s been on the go since late November is another niggle.

Official rating: 119. Timeform rating: 129. Odds: 11-1.

It’s hard to recall a colt who pulled off the Dewhurst/2000 Guineas double having such an underwhelmed audience. The form of his Classic success, on bottomless ground, has had more punctures than a bicycle negotiating a mile of broken glass and he himself ran a stinker in the Prix Jean Prat at Deauville last time, having previously been put firmly in his place by Paddington in the St James’s Palace Stakes. Now resurfaces after a 104-day break. If he’s read some of his press in the interim, he will have a point to prove. The last 2000 Guineas winner to win this race was his sire, Frankel.

Official rating: 112. Timeform rating: 122. Odds: 80-1.

He’s shown himself to be a useful colt without suggesting he can win a prize such as this. Eight runs in pattern company have yielded one success, in the Group Three Thoroughbred Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. Looks to be making up the numbers.

Official rating: 114. Timeform rating: 124. Odds: 66-1.

Chased home Chaldean in the 2000 Guineas before finishing third to Paddington in the Irish equivalent but, as previously stated, neither were vintage editions. He’s since had a couple of heavy defeats in France, with his sole victory being achieved in a novice contest at Ayr more than a year ago.

Official rating: 121. Timeform rating: 135. Odds: 5-1.

She’s a fabulous mare who has shown herself to be among the best ten-furlong horses in training, but connections have hinted that she will drop back to a mile and instead contest this prize. They’ve no doubt been emboldened by her emphatic victory in the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket in July, where she scooted home by five lengths. That was her first start over a mile (and only her second run over the trip) for 15 months, when she won by more than six lengths. Nashwa got to within a length of Mostahdaf in the International and finished best of all when beaten half a length in the Irish Champion last time. She finished a neck ahead of Paddington on the first occasion and looks a big price to confirm the form.

Official rating: 125. Timeform rating: 135. Odds: 6-4.

He’s been one of the stars of the season, reeling off four successive Group One wins – the Irish 2000 Guineas, St James’s Palace Stakes, Eclipse and Sussex – before finishing a close third behind Mostahdaf and Nashwa in the Juddmonte International. He was particularly impressive here in the St James’s Palace, around a bend, and the straight mile should suit him even better given his effectiveness over further. Aidan O’Brien suggested his busy schedule contributed to his defeat at York and the niggle is that, even after a two-month break, we may have seen the best of him this campaign, although Roaring Lion was similarly busy before his win in this in 2018.

Official rating: 110. Timeform rating: 126. Odds: 40-1.

She returns to the scene of her Duke Of Cambridge Stakes triumph in June, when she showed good acceleration to peg back Random Harvest. The daughter of Dubawi has since found Group One company too much to handle (as she did last year) but probably ran as well as she has ever done when runner-up to Tahiyra in the Matron Stakes on her penultimate start, albeit she was no match for the winner. Ran a rare poor race in France last time, perhaps hinting a longish year (she made her return on April 1) is catching up with her.

Official rating: 118. Timeform rating: 130p. Odds: 9-2.

The four-time Group One winner has been beaten just once in six starts, when edged out by Mawj in the 1000 Guineas on her return at Newmarket in May when possibly short of peak condition. She’s since reeled off successive wins in the Irish 1000 Guineas, Coronation Stakes and Matron Stakes, and the memory of her stunning Moyglare Stud Stakes victory in the mud last year lingers. She’s only raced against her own sex and her form lacks a bit of substance, which is reflected by her official rating, but she gives the impression she will raise her game when required. There was a swagger about her latest success at Leopardstown when she was in control from some way out. Given how easily she won that day, coupled with an 11-week break beforehand, freshness should not be an issue.

A humdinger of a race in which girl power may come to the fore. Tahiyra gets the nod over Nashwa, with Paddington also hard to leave out of calculations. There is plenty of depth among the rest, too.

1 TAHIYRA. 2 NASHWA. 3 PADDINGTON.

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