QIPCO Champion Stakes: runner-by-runner guide and tip

Was it really 11 years ago that Frankel signed off his flawless career with victory in the QIPCO Champion Stakes? It still seems like only yesterday that he made us all gasp when falling out of the stalls before moving through the gears and making the stands shake.

The titan of the turf was a one-off, an equine freak, but he’s doing his best to cast other horses in his image. Cracksman was among his first crop of yearlings and won successive renewals of the race, in 2017 and 2018, by an aggregate of 13 lengths. This year, Frankel could be represented by Mostahdaf, trained by John and Thady Gosden.

The £1.3 million contest is Europe’s most valuable mile-and-a-quarter race and, since the first Champions Day in 2011, it has paid to focus on the highest-rated contenders. The top-rated horse has won on four occasions courtesy of Frankel, Farhh, Almanzor and Magical, while the second highest-rated runner has triumphed as many times via Fascinating Rock, Cracksman (twice) and Addeybb.

Only twice has the winner been rated below 120. The ratings of the victors have been 125, 140, 124, 117, 120, 127, 122, 125, 122, 122, 117 and 120.

There have been three occasions when the highest-rated runner has beaten the second-highest (2012, 2013 and 2016) and another where those tables were turned (2018). When Frankel won in 2012, the field of six finished in the exact order their ratings suggested they would.

Baeed (rated 135 in 2022); Crystal Ocean (129 in 2018) and Nathaniel (128 in 2011) have been high-rated runners who have returned home to their respective Newmarket stables defeated. Baeed was simply below his imperious best; Crystal Ocean had the misfortune to bump into a relentless Cracksman, who had been rated 130 earlier in the summer, while Nathaniel was probably involved in the greatest race run at Champions Day in terms of the overall quality on offer.

Older horses have held sway with only five of the Classic generation taking part finishing first or second. French-trained runners have a great record, with three of their 13 challengers winning, and another trio being second.

Overall, seven of the winners had won their previous race - four of them in Group One company - while Cracksman had finished runner-up in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes.

It seems likely that Saturday's race will be switched to the inside track, with a decision on that having to be made by 8am on Saturday. Conditions on that course will be better than on the round track.

Official rating: 121. Timeform rating: 132. General odds: 9-2.

Took advantage of Baaeed fluffing his lines when winning last year's renewal, when fresh and enjoying the softish conditions. That day he finally built on the promise of his stunning Brigadier Gerard Stakes win earlier in the campaign, when he thumped Mostahdaf by five lengths with Addeybb (a former winner of this) and Dubai Future well adrift. He’s been unable to add to his tally this year, at least on turf, not convincing with his stamina when sixth in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe last time. The drop back in trip/softer ground will suit and he must be a player provided his exploits in France have not left a mark.

Official rating: 120. Timeform rating: 133. Odds: 28-1.

Beat all bar Sealiway in this contest two years ago but was only sixth 12 months ago. Won back-to-back Group One prizes in Australia at the start of the year, making the most of good opportunities, but was weak in the market and surrendered tamely when last of four finishers in the Eclipse last time out. Easy enough to look elsewhere.

Official rating: 128. Timeform rating: 136. Odds: 7-1.

If getting the green light to run, he’s going to be the highest-rated horse in action on Champions Day (has a mark of 128) and nobody can quibble with that after his dazzling four-length defeat of Luxembourg at Royal Ascot, which he followed with an all-the-way win in the Juddmonte International, at York, when fending off Nashwa and Paddington. His tactical versatility, coupled with his form claims, make him an outstanding candidate but, and it's a big but, his standout efforts have been on a sound surface. The son of Frankel is also proven on slower tops but connections could yet switch him to the Breeders' Cup. Switching to the inside track could tempt connections to take their chance.

Official rating: 119. Timeform rating: 126+. Odds: 12-1.

Upped his game when beaten half a length into third in last year’s renewal and there remains a sense of unfinished about him, for all that he was a well-beaten fourth behind Mostahdaf at Royal Ascot. Made hard work of what looked a straightforward task at Salisbury last time, and no surprise if connections equip him with some form of headgear. He’s got a bigger performance in him, and it's interesting that he now sports first-time blinkers. A year on from Baaeed hogging all the pre-race headlines, and blowing out, it would be rather ironic if the stable won with a horse who has barely merited a column inch.

Official rating: 115. Timeform rating: 127. Odds: 66-1.

Looked bound for the top after winning his first four races as a two-year-old but he made it to the track only once last season, when failing to make an impact in the 2000 Guineas, and his star has slipped further this year, despite a couple of pattern victories. He was deployed as a pacemaker in the King George but couldn’t get to the front in the Irish Champion last time, when presumably that was again the intention. Acts well in the mud.

Official rating: 116. Timeform rating: 131. Odds: 8-1.

George Boughey's Group One-winning stable star takes on the boys in this race, over what is probably her optimum trip, instead of sticking to taking on her own sex in the Fillies & Mares. The wet weather has no doubt been a factor as she revels in muddy conditions, but what will the ground be if there is a switch to the inner track? Given deep conditions, it would be folly to underestimate her, even though there hasn’t been a Champion Stakes winner at Ascot rated below 117. She’s on 116.

Official rating: 120. Timeform rating: 129. Odds: 11-4.

There have been three French-trained winners of the Champion Stakes since the first Champions Day, in 2011, and, like the first of them, Cirrus Des Aigles, Horizon Dore will head to Ascot without a Group One winner on his CV. He’s never even run at the highest level, although, as a three-year-old gelding, he has had less opportunities than others. Few would dispute that he’s looked a horse capable of holding his own at the top table, with his win from off the pace in the Prix Dollar last time being very slick. He is in deeper waters but it's difficult to gauge exactly how good he is, or might be.

Official rating: 121. Timeform rating: 132. Odds: 4-1.

Cracksman won his first Champion Stakes after going close in the Derby earlier in the year, and King Of Steel bids to follow suit. He’s since taken a completely different path to the last two-time winner of the race, making the frame in the King George and Irish Champion Stakes after landing the King Edward VII Stakes here at Ascot. Kevin Stott came in for criticism for his ride at Leopardstown last time – and ended up being told his services were no longer required by the owner 48 hours later – but in no way could the imposing colt be described as an unlucky loser. For instance, Nashwa came from further back and passed him to grab third. King Of Steel’s odds have shrunk since it was revealed Frankie Dettori would be riding him, but he’s had a longish year (which started with him being a late non-runner in the Dante and a subsequent stalls test having to be passed) and I’m still convinced we will not see the best of him until next season.

Official rating: 113. Timeform rating: 130. Odds: 14-1.

I must confess to having a sneaky ante-post nibble on him at outlandish odds before he won a Listed contest at Hamilton last time, but that was in the hope of bottomless ground – he’s clearly in his element on soft going - and the race possibly cutting up. It looks like the ground is going to be in his favour, but there still looks like being plenty of depth to the race, so the predicted sums no longer quite add up. Addeybb won the same Hamilton contest before his victory in this race but Royal Rhyme’s official rating of 113 sums him up, and points to him needing to find a chunk of improvement.

Mostahdaf has stood his ground, at least at the 48-hour stage, and is going to be hard to beat if anywhere near his best. His form is a notch above the opposition, reflected by the fact the official ratings suggests he has 7lb and more in hand of the opposition. The 7-1 on offer looks far too big.

1 MOSTAHDAF. 2 HORIZON DORE. 3 BAY BRIDGE.

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