Paul Mulrennan column: York day one preview plus Carlisle rides

Firstly, we need to start by acknowledging that the field sizes for the three Group races are disappointing which, following on swiftly from an eight-runner Pertemps Network July Cup, is a legitimate concern for the sport.

However, the Juddmonte International Stakes promises to be an intriguing tactical battle. I suspect that both Nashwa and The Foxes will drop in, so it is basically between Ryan (Paddington) and Frankie (Mostahdaf) as to who makes the running.

I’d nominate Paddington as the likeliest. Ryan will know that he’s on the best horse, so won’t want to be mucking around, running the real risk of allowing Frankie to set a steady early tempo, which could allow Nashwa the chance to deploy her sharp turn of foot.

Horse Racing is like Boxing in that you can only beat the opposition (or indeed the specific era) put in front of you. Paddington has done exactly that by winning the Irish 2,000 Guineas, the St James’s Palace Stakes, the Coral-Eclipse, and the Qatar Sussex Stakes. He takes travelling and racing exceptionally well. He has the constitution of a champion, and I think that he’s a great horse.

The Frankie-factor comes into play with Gregory in the Great Voltigeur Stakes. Gregory stays well and has looked good so far in maintaining his unbeaten record (3-3).

Castle Way was successful in the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket’s July Festival and, like both Gregory and Continuous, will be bidding to enhance his St Leger credentials.

Godolphin have endured a quiet spell lately, and on a strict line through Saint George, their runner (Castle Way) faces a tough task against the favourite.

It is fantastic to see Adrian Keatley with a live chance of saddling another high-profile winner in the Tattersalls Acomb Stakes. Overall, this probably isn’t the deepest juvenile contest, but the form of Ballymount Boy looks rock solid, with his Goodwood conqueror Vandeek going on to win the Prix Morny at Deauville.

Adrian has trained a Classic winner in Ireland previously, so his talent with horses is obvious, but he operates a smaller yard in the north, and it can’t have been easy relocating the business.

William Buick has a very good record for Charlie Hills, so the Newbury novice winner Cogitate rates as a danger. Hills has won the Acomb twice in recent years, and the faster surface at York does pose a slight question mark for the favourite, Ballymount Boy.

Edwardian represents Aidan O’Brien. You’d have to think he was sharp to have made his first appearance in late April. Furthermore, I was at Ascot when Indian Run was successful on his second start. He came from a fair way back there, taking a step forward from Newbury.

Azure Blue was slightly footsore after pulling a shoe off in the paddock last week so, after consulting her owners, Michael (Dods) made the decision to take her out of Friday’s Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes.

Naturally, we’re all disappointed. However, you must always strive to do what is right by any horse. She isn’t 100%, so she doesn’t run. She’s only a four-year old, and there will be other days.

I intend to be riding at York on Thursday and Saturday, but I’ll be heading over to Carlisle on Wednesday for four booked rides.

I start with Gutsy Girl (2.40pm) for Charlie Fellowes. She ran well on debut at Ascot, so you’d like to think that with normal progression, she’d be thereabouts.

Switching back to Carlisle and easing in grade should help B Associates (3.15pm). He won on successive days there earlier in the summer.

Detective (4.20pm), is an old legend of a horse. He hasn’t done a lot wrong in his last couple of starts and does seem to come alive (five course wins) at Carlisle. Sometimes you have to encourage him along, so the expectation is that he’ll be finishing off purposively on his first attempt over 7f.

The Caltonian (4.55pm) hasn’t had too many chances to break the maiden but did run a solid race when runner-up on handicap debut at Ayr in June. He hasn’t quite matched that form since, but this looks a suitable opportunity.