The
Group One Juddmonte International is one of the most iconic contests in the European racing calendar. Sporting greats such as Roberto, Dahlia, Troy, Sea The Stars, Frankel and Baaeed all feature on the roll of honour at York Racecourse.
A small, but select field of four go to post for this year’s renewal and our expert Danny Archer has analysed the quartet in an in-depth runner-by-runner guide.
PADDINGTONTrainer: Aidan O’Brien Approximate odds: 4/6
Has carried all before him this season with six victories from as many starts on a variety of types of ground and across seven furlongs, a mile and 10 furlongs. The outstanding horse of the season so far, he reiterated his versatility with a fourth Group One of the summer when staying on resolutely to make all in the Sussex Stakes in testing conditions.
There are fears that a busy season may start to catch up with him, but his progression this season has been described as “abnormal” by his master trainer Aidan O’Brien as he has got bigger and indeed stronger after every run. The comparisons with 'the Iron Horse' Giant’s Causeway continue to materialise and whilst he is unlikely to emulate that one's heroics in the Irish Champion Stakes, this looks a golden opportunity to etch his name onto the roll of honour on the Knavesmire. Interestingly, he is rated 3lb lower than Mostahdaf, but the ceiling of his ability may not yet have been reached.
Crucially, he is tactically versatile, highlighted by his front-running performance at Goodwood, whilst the trip is not a concern given the manner in which he held off Emily Upjohn to strike over 10 furlongs in the Coral-Eclipse.
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MOSTAHDAFTrainer: John & Thady Gosden Approximate odds: 5/2
Best kept fresh, he has taken his form to a new level this term, running riot on quick ground in Saudi Arabia in February. Fourth behind one of the world’s best in Equinox in the Sheema Classic, he highlighted the benefit of a break when powering clear to land the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at the Royal Meeting.
The form of that event is hard to gauge with Luxembourg and Adayar both beaten again since, but he quickened up powerfully off a sedate gallop in good style.
The key question here is whether he will get enough cover early and whether it will harm his chances if he doesn't. This could turn tactical and his explosive turn of foot could dig him out of a hole - but will the race be run to suit?
NASHWATrainer: John & Thady Gosden Odds: 14/1
Bounced back to something like her best when successful in the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket and she held every chance when third in the Nassau last time out. She was kept wide on that occasion and connections interestingly revealed afterwards that perhaps she would have been ridden with more cover in hindsight.
The ground was also testing at Goodwood and she will be more at home on a sounder surface. She is another who is versatile tactically and it will be interesting to see if she helps to set the fractions up front.
THE FOXESTrainer: Andrew Balding Odds: 18/1
A horse still on the upgrade, The Foxes is already a course and distance winner having landed the Dante Stakes in May. He kept on strongly on that occasion having got cover early in the race.
Far from disgraced with a fifth-placed finish in the Derby, he met all sorts of trouble in running when second in the Belmont Derby last time out, staying on strongly to take second close home. Sometimes slow into stride, he does seemingly need to be held up. While he does boast a smart turn of foot, he is rated 14lb below Mostahdaf and has a mountain to climb unless he can find some unexpected improvement from somewhere.
The big-race verdict
Paddington is clearly the one to beat. He has taken all before him this season and there is no suggestion that his progression is showing any signs of stopping. His tactical versatility just gives him the edge over Mostahdaf here and I can see him controlling the pace from the front and making all. The latter is deeply respected given his impressive win in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and the fact that quick ground should suit. The Foxes is fancied to take third ahead of Nashwa.
1 Paddington. 2 Mostahdaf. 3 The Foxes
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