Guineas ante-post tips: "this 66-1 chance looks massively overpriced"

The opening Classics of the 2026 Flat season are fast approaching and both races look wide open. The recent trials at Newmarket and Newbury have left more questions than answers, and both the Betfred 2000 and 1000 Guineas could see big fields, with plenty of outsiders surely keen to take their chance.

Aidan O’Brien saddled four of the final five winners of the colts’ Classic in the 2010s, including the last three, but has not saddled the winner since Magna Grecia landed the spoils in 2019. It is Charlie Appleby who has taken over as the race’s pre-eminent trainer this decade, having won three out of the past four editions, including the last twice.

He is likely to be represented by at least two runners this year, possibly three, but the clear form pick looks to be DISTANT STORM, who can still be backed at 6-1.

He first got to see this hugely talented son of Night Of Thunder on a racecourse last summer where he ran out the narrow winner of a red-hot maiden at Newmarket’s July Festival. The form could barely have worked out any better - of the eleven runners to have finished behind him, ten of them have subsequently won, and these include recent Craven winner Oxagon, who finished five and a half lengths behind in fifth.

Distant Storm was then beaten by Champion Juvenile Gewan in the Acomb at York but his race was over soon after the start. He pulled too hard, failed to settle, and never looked like mounting a challenge. He did well to finish third.

However, he bounced back the following month to win the Tattersalls Stakes on the Rowley Mile, scoring by an emphatic four and three-quarter lengths. He screamed a Guineas horse that day, quickening up smartly from the rear and handling the galloping track and dip with ease.

He was sent off just 9-4 for the Dewhurst over the same course and distance and found just Gewan and Gstaad too strong, but settled well and did little wrong, defeating recent trial winners Oxagon and Alparslan, plus Greenham runner-up Zavateri. His Group One experience on this course could be a big positive in 12 days’ time.

He looks likely to appreciate this extra furlong and will be well suited by the likely fast ground. His pedigree screams Guineas too. By vintage 2000 Guineas hero and supreme sire Night Of Thunder, he is out of Date With Destiny, the only foal sired by the late George Washington, who won the opening Classic in 2005.

The same sire’s Bow Echo unsurprisingly heads the market having gone three from three as a two-year-old, but this colt’s level of form is just as strong, if not better, and looks the one to side with at the current prices.

The Betfred 1000 Guineas also looks an open renewal. Precise looks a certain favourite should she line up after her Fillies’ Mile success over course and distance, with second favourite Diamond Necklace likely to head back to France.

Aidan O’Brien’s Champion Two-Year-Old is a worthy market leader, but many from the yard have been needing their first run of the season and Ballydoyle have had fancied horses beaten in this race for the past four years. She looks skinny enough at the current odds.

Five of the past ten winners of the opening fillies’ Classic have been sent off at double figure prices, so it is often worth having a deep look at the race, and the one that makes the most appeal at the current odds is AYLIN, who looks massively overpriced at 66-1.

Her trainer Karl Burke has started the season in flying form and, though he has a more obvious chance for this race with Venetian Sun, Aylin is more than eight times the price, and we at least know she will stay.

The Al Shaqab and Amo Racing-owned filly is reported to have wintered well, with the Newmarket Classic being her early season target.

A daughter of dual Classic hero St Mark's Basilica, who also won the Dewhurst, she is out of a Dark Angel mare whose best piece of form also came on the Rowley Mile, and though Aylin is yet to race at HQ, she showed her liking for a galloping track when landing the May Hill Stakes.

Last year's 1000 Guineas winner Desert Flower landed the Doncaster Group Two in 2024, and it has also been won by Laurens and Inspiral in the past decade.

She had legitimate excuses in her two defeats either side of that win last year too. She was clearly unsuited by the easy seven furlongs at Goodwood in the Prestige Stakes, being done for a turn of foot by Precise and Moon Target, before rallying late on and closing on the front pair crossing the line.

She then seemed to hold every chance in the Prix Marcel Boussac the following month and only finished fifth, though she was only beaten two and a half lengths by Diamond Necklace and just a length and a half behind the runner-up having been drawn widest of all, and the ground was reportedly very tacky.

Karl Burke had an exceptional season with his juveniles last year and the fact that Aylin was deemed good enough to dip her toe into Group One company shows she is clearly held in high regard.

A 600,000gns yearling, she is described as a "lengthy, attractive filly" by Timeform and it would be no surprise should she take a big step forward from two to three. The fact she is a very early foal is another positive, often a statistic overlooked for the opening Classics of the season.

She will require a career best by some way to win the 1000 Guineas on Sunday week, but she will stay this mile stronger than many and is worth supporting each-way for her in-form team at a price that looks much too big.

2000 Guineas: back DISTANT STORM at 6-1 with William Hill.

1000 Guineas: back AYLIN at 66-1 each-way with bet365.