Free horse racing tips for Monday: a Trixie for Carlisle

What promises to be a spectacular week of racing begins in low-key style on Monday. Ground conditions are also going to be a bit of an unknown with thunderstorms rumbling around.

I’m hoping we don’t get any more in the early hours in my part of the world, Essex, as we’ve got a nervous 40-kilo lurcher who immediately takes refuge on our bed as soon as he hears a murmur from the skies. At least he uses my wife’s legs as a headrest, rather than my own.

With doubts about the going, I’m going to stick with three short-priced fancies at Carlisle who seem unlikely to mind if underfoot conditions ease.

I’ll be sticking them in a Trixie before switching attention to Royal Ascot. Enjoy the week.

The son of Calyx changed hands for just £3,000 as a yearling but he made a most promising start in a ten-runner novice event over 5f at Beverley last month when staying on well to chase home Bombay Bazaar.

He fluffed the start that day and was left playing catch-up, passing all bar the impressive winner, who has since followed up a decent contest on the same track.

There are a few unknown quantities in the race, including a Richard Fahey-trained newcomer in Roswood, but Project Geofin seems sure to enjoy this longer trip and should take some beating if progressing for his initial start.

This filly formed part of an across-the-card five-timer for Charlie Johnston when winning in convincing fashion at Ayr last week and can defy a 6lb penalty.

She was making her handicap/turf debut at Ayr, looking better the further she went under Joe Fanning, who merely had to use hands and heels to ease her clear. The daughter of Sea The Moon gets an extra furlong to express herself here.

In hindsight, an opening mark of 68 was generous at Ayr given she’s split subsequent winners Joyful Act and Dubai Crystal at Wolverhampton at the end of March. The latter, two lengths behind Alpina Express on level terms, has since gone close off marks of 80 (at Ascot) and 82.

Johnston has rattled off 25 winners already this month, at a strike rare of 24 per cent, and interestingly he has Alpina Express also declared at Ripon on Wednesday and Thursday. She could be in for a busy week.

This Mayson filly has done all her racing with some dig underfoot and the forecast overnight rain should ensure she again gets her ground.

She looked an improved performer when winning on her return over 6f on heavy going at Redcar but then seemed to find the trip on the sharp side on less testing ground at Ripon on her next start.

Upped to 7f at Musselburgh last time, she swiftly got back to winning ways at the main expense of B Associates and Gone.

She’s since had a break but, in her absence, the form has been bolstered time after time. Both the second and third have reeled off a hat-trick of wins and, consequently, a 4lb rise for Purple Martini seems most unlikely to stop her following up.