King George VI Chase: runner-by-runner guide and verdict

Gaelic Warrior will have the distinction of being officially the highest-rated runner in the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase at Kempton Park on Boxing Day.

However, the nod of approval from the number crunchers has become something of a poisoned chalice when it comes to the highlight of the Christmas programme.

The past ten highest-rated runners in the festive showpiece, rated between 167 and 177, have all been beaten, with four of them not even managing to complete.

Between them, their form figures read F2632PPU33, with Don Cossack, Cue Card, Minella Indo and Allaho among those to be upstaged. The winners have been rated between 3lb and 16lb lower.

You must travel back to the 174-rated Silviniaco Conti, in 2014, to find the last highest-rated runner to prevail, when he was retaining his crown.

Gaelic Warrior also has a rating of 174 after his exciting triumph in the John Durkan last month and will attempt to give Ireland their fourth triumph in the past five years after the victories of Tornado Flyer, Hewick and Banbridge.

That trio went off at 28-1, 12-1 and 7-1, respectively, whereas Gaelic Warrior, trained by Willie Mullins, is disputing favouritism with Fact To File, his stablemate. The last Irish-trained favourite to oblige was Kicking King, who was sent off at 11-8 when taking the spoils at Sandown 20 years ago.

On the subject of Mullins, his haul of seven winners from 52 runners this month is a little concerning, but Timeform have got almost 60 per cent his runners running to form. Expect normal service to be resumed over the coming days. 

Here’s a guide to the nine left in the mix after the latest confirmations on December 20.

Official Rating: 166. Jump Index: 8.3. Odds: 16-1. 

Multiple King George winners are common with a dozen horses having won at least two editions of the race in the past 60 years. Wayward Lad (three wins), Desert Orchid (four) and Kauto Star (five) took things to another level. 

On the face of it, that augurs well for Banbridge, a superb jumper who took the honours 12 months ago when having his first run in a 3m chase. 

However, instead of opening new doors, they’ve since been slamming in his face. He subsequently ran miserably in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham and he fared little better at Punchestown. His comeback run over 2m at Cork last month was also dull.

You can forgive him his latest effort, which was probably a pipe-opener, but he will nevertheless arrive with something to prove in what looks like being a deeper contest than last year. Joseph O'Brien reaches for a first-time visor to try and relight his fire, plus has recruited Sean Bowen.

Returning champs have finished 544111132U12471342 this century, with Kauto Star responsible for three of those 1s. 

Official Rating: 163. Jump Index: 7.5. Odds: 12-1. 

He’s earned his chance after smooth wins in the Charlie Hall and Peterborough Chase this season, doubling his tally of Grade Two victories in the process. 

However, you can punch holes in the form of his wins this term, achieved at the main expense of Pic D’Orhy and Edwardstone, and his previous five outings in Grade One company have all ended in defeat. 

His decisive back-to-back wins in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon at least point to Kempton playing to his strengths, and the seven-year-old remains relatively unexposed over 3m. His trainer, Venetia Williams, seeks a belated second victory in the race after Teeton Mill in 1998. 

Official Rating: 173. Jump Index: 8.5. Odds: 5-2. 

The compelling clash between Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File in last month’s John Durkan deserves a sequel, and it now seems that the stablemates will again face off at Kempton after most of us assumed they would head in different directions over Christmas.

Gaelic Warrior prevailed by a neck at Punchestown, but only after Fact To File had eroded the front-runner’s big lead and all but collared him.

It was certainly more exciting than their first meeting, in a match at Leopardstown in February 2024, when Fact To File already had the spoils in safe keeping when Gaelic Warrior unshipped his rider at the final fence.

Their third encounter, at Kempton, will be the first time they have met over 3m.

It goes without saying that Fact To File is a massive player as he has the requisite stamina, speed, jumping prowess and class. It's little wonder that leading owner JP McManus, still yet to land this race after having the runner-up in both 1978 and 1979, has pointed him in this direction.

The eight-year-old was a brilliant winner of the Ryanair Chase when last on British shores and 3m on a flat track with the emphasis on speed promises to suit him ideally.

Official Rating: 174. Jump Index: 8.1. Odds: 5-2. 

Gaelic Warrior’s pulsating all-the-way John Durkan win last month showed a new side to him, as he flashed all his brilliance and then dug deep when it seemed Fact To File was going to pick him off. 

Up until then, we had been used to Gaelic Warrior either outclassing opposition and winning easily or fluffing his lines (five defeats at 13-8 or shorter). There had been little in between. 

His successive lacklustre displays over 2m 1f at Leopardstown in the middle of last winter left us scratching our heads but moving up in trip at the end of the campaign was inspired, with a polished defeat of Grey Dawning over 3m 1f at Aintree being followed by another fluent victory over an extended 2m6f at Sandown. Those efforts helped Willie Mullins retain his trainers’ title and means Gaelic Warrior’s record in England reads 22111. 

Depending on whether your glass if half-empty or half-full, he’s won/lost half of his ten Grade One races. 

These days, he seems effective running in any direction, although his record on right-hand tracks in Britain and Ireland remains superior. His record going in that direction reads 11111211, with his only defeat coming at the hands of Il Etait Temps over 2m at Punchestown in May 2024. 

Kempton should play to his strengths; he’s the highest-rated runner in the line-up; and the trip is not an issue. On the minus side, there are new kids on the block to overcome, and we don’t know whether that eyeballs out clash last month has left any mark. 

Official Rating: 163. Jump Index: 8.7. Odds: 20-1. 

Il Est Francais seems blessed with ability and issues in equal measure, developing an all or nothing record. 

He was a stunning winner of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase two years ago, clocking a time that was more than four seconds quicker than Hewick managed when landing the King George later in the afternoon. He looked every inch a future King George winner that day and went close to delivering on that promise when beating all bar Banbridge in last year’s renewal. 

However, he had been pulled up with a problem at Auteuil the previous month and the past 12 months have indicated that the seven-year-old – a busy boy early in his career - may never realise his full potential. 

A switch from France to Britain has not immediately revived him, either, to judge by his tame surrender in the 1965 Chase at Ascot last month when he again failed to complete.

Even if the bold jumping front-runner can recapture the form he showed last year, which is a big if, he’s still going to have to pull out more under Harry Cobden, who takes over in the saddle. 

Official Rating: 165. Jump Index: 8.3. Odds: 7-2. 

It’s surprising that Nicky Henderson has trained only two King George winners in Long Run and Might Bite. Many believe Jango Baie can give him another after his impressive reappearance win in the 1965 Chase over 2m 4f at Ascot last month. 

He had only four rivals to beat and one of them, Il Est Francais, bombed out badly, but they went a good gallop; his jumping was a treat and he won with great authority in a good time. As an appetiser for the months ahead, it was sumptuous. 

Jango Baie is one of the few in the field unproven over 3m, but that has not stopped Tornado Flyer and Banbridge winning in recent years, or Edredon Bleu before them. 

He’s a been a consistently strong finisher in his races and moving up in trip promises to unlock further improvement. Remember, he snatched victory from the bowels of defeat despite the 2m trip in the Arkle, and he’s often been just getting going at the end of his races over further, too.

Desert Orchid (third), Kicking King (second) and Cue Card (second) all ran in the Arkle before going on to King George glory. Best Mate would have done, too, but for the race being lost to an outbreak of foot and mouth, while injury denied Kauto Star his chance of participating in it. He contested the Champion Chase 12 months later.

Jango Baie's doubters will point to defeats over 2m 4f at Sandown and Aintree in between that Arkle triumph, although he lost on the bob in the former in a muddling affair, while at Aintree he came up a little short against rivals who had skipped Cheltenham. 

Recurring themes have been his accurate jumping and high Finishing Speed Percentages. Ascot was an ideal prep and it will be exciting to see what he can do unleashed over 3m. 

Official Rating: 157. Jump Index: 7.3. Odds: 150-1. 

Master Chewy has run just once at Kempton, when an impressive winner of the Wayward Lad Novice Chase at this meeting two years ago. 

However, that’s just about the only positive because he has done nothing to suggest he can make a presence felt here. He was a distant last of four behind Jango Baie at Ascot last time and he would rate a doubtful stayer exploring 3m for the first time. 

Official Rating: 156. Jump Index: 8.1. Odds: 8-1. 

Last, but certainly not least, The Jukebox Man. The Harry Redknapp-owned seven-year-old has yet to run a bad race and has made quite an impression in winning each of his three races over fences, albeit his performances have been more about style than substance. 

The highlight of his brief chasing career has been winning the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at this meeting last year, although a 2½-length defeat of Hyland in a time about 11sec slower than the King George later in the afternoon will not have the connections of Gaelic Warrior, Fastorslow and Jango Baie shaking in their boots. 

At least he showed going right-handed was not an issue. Most of his runs have been on left-hand tracks, and he’s hung in that direction on more than one occasion. 

Unfortunately, The Jukebox Man missed the rest of the campaign, but he picked up from where he left off with a fluent win at from the front Haydock last month. He gave 3lb to the smart Iroko that day and fended him off with something to spare. 

The Jukebox Man is now in a much deeper contest and would be receiving lumps of weight if this were a handicap, but that’s not to say he cannot bridge the gap.

He jumps soundly and before switching to chasing had established himself as among the best staying novice hurdlers of the 2023-24 season, finishing runner-up at Cheltenham and Aintree. 

A race to savour, with FACT TO FILE getting the nod. He looks tailor-made for the race, with the dry forecast this week another plus for him. I'd have had reservations had the ground been deep - he looks more about speed than stamina - but goodish going is on the cards. 

1 FACT TO FILE. 2 JANGO BAIE. 3 GAELIC WARRIOR.