Ebor Festival: five to follow at York on Friday

Tipster: Dave Nevison.

Best odds: 6-1.

This is definitely not the most competitive handicap ever run at the Ebor meeting, with several familiar exposed campaigners who might not be in the best of form.

The scene could be set perfectly for Emmet Mullins’s useful five-year-old to come back to winning form. It is quite easy to make excuses for his runs since he won at The Curragh last September.

He was hampered at the start when down the field in the Cambridgeshire and has run quite well in Listed and Group company on his three runs this season, doing well when outclassed in a Group 3 last time out.

He is back down in a handicap today and, with Tom Marquand booked, he has plenty in his favour. 

Tipster: Ross Millar.

Best odds: 12-1.

Regular readers will know I’m a big fan of Do Or Do Not, he’s talented and thoroughly consistent. I certainly wouldn’t begrudge him shedding his maiden tag here. 

However, I’m not sure this drop back in trip on a speed-based track is certain to suit and given his relatively cramped odds I’m going to look elsewhere.

Comical Point showed some good late work over a stiff five-furlongs at Salisbury to win on debut and then backed that up with an improved effort when a strong finishing fifth in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot.

His latest effort at Newmarket in the July Stakes was a disastrous effort as he raced far too freely at the head of affairs.

I’m prepared to overlook that run and instead prefer to judge him on his first two starts; on that basis this fast six-furlongs should suit him well and unlike the favourite he is in possession of tactical speed.

He can strike for Andrew Balding who has already bagged the Acomb this week.

Tipster: Andy Stephens.

Best odds: 6-1.

The one I keep coming back to is Arizona Blaze, a general 6-1 chance who with mark of 113 is the joint-highest rated runner in the line-up. 

He stood up well to a busy campaign as a two-year-old last season, including when touched off in the valuable Sales’ race over 6f at this meeting, and has continued to thrive on his racing this term, being beaten a neck by Time for Sandals in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot in June before dropping back to the minimum trip and landing the Group Two Sapphire Stakes with authority at The Curragh last time. 

Arizona Blaze was much too strong for Mgheera in the latter race, and that horse had previously defeated She’s Quality in the Temple Stakes at Haydock. His form stacks up, with She’s Quality and Time For Sandals (despite dropping in trip and having a 5lb penalty) subsequently both going close in the King George at Goodwood last month. 

This easy 5f is probably not an optimum for Arizona Blaze, but RaceiQ tells us it took him just 1.88mph to hit 20mph at Royal Ascot, which suggests he can beak on terms with the fastest around. And in a race where plenty could be run off their feet by the closing stages, his ability to stay further will be an asset. 

Perhaps most significant, the main pace looks centre to high. And the TurfTrax data on Thursday morning also indicates the faster ground is there, too. The Going Stick readings in the home straight were: Far Side: 6.1; Centre: 6.3; Stands' Side: 6.5.

It means Arizona Blaze, who is trained by Adrian Murray and will be ridden by David Egan, could be in the right place at the right time. 

Tipsters: Alex Scott and Dave Nevison.

Best odds: 3-1.

Oisin Murphy takes over for the first time here and it is hard to see this filly not going close at the very least, so long as she is granted better luck than she has encountered on the last two occasions.

She was not seen to best effect in the Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot, finishing seventh having been slowly away and a long way back on the far-side.

She then finished fifth, little over two lengths behind Protest at Glorious Goodwood, where she had no room to make her challenge entering the final furlong and a half, and when she did get a clear passage, she picked up smartly.

Another positive is that she is being stepped back up to a mile and a quarter. She has won her only start over this trip, which is also her best piece of form - the horses she beat are now rated 98, 100 and 102.

By Ghaiyyath and out of a New Approach mare, I would be surprised if this trip should not see her to better effect than the mile she has contested the last twice, and based on her maiden form, ought to be better than the 89 she is currently rated too.

Tipster: Katie Midwinter.

Best odds: 66-1.

Unexposed contender entitled to improve for his reappearance. He's no forlorn hope, each-way, at huge odds.