Nunthorpe Stakes: the task for two-year-olds and a 6-1 tip

There were plenty of sporting highlights in 2007. Manchester United won the Premier League; Australia humiliated England 5-0 in the Ashes, Roger Federer won a fifth successive Wimbledon; Padraig Harrington scooped the Open after a play-off; Raymond van Barneveld edged out Phil Taylor 7–6 in an epic World Darts Final. Oh, and a two-year-old, Kingsgate Native, won the Nunthorpe.

In the intervening 18 years, another 13 juveniles have contested the Group One sprint at York, and they have all returned home defeated. The older brigade can take some stopping, but many expect either Lady Iman or Spicy Marg to end that barren period on Friday. The former is favourite across the board, being no bigger than 4-1. 

Some quality youngsters have come up short since Kingsgate Native shed his maiden tag in unforgettable style, with the most notable being American challenger Acapulco, who had been a commanding winner of the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot the previous month. 

The daughter of Scat Daddy went off at 13-8 to give Wesley Ward the Nunthorpe triumph he craved and favourite backers began letting loose cries of “oi, oi” when she breezed clear under a motionless Irad Ortiz heading to the final furlong.  

But zooming along at 40mph-plus on rain softened ground began to tell on her young limbs when it mattered most and she had no answer to the late surge of Mecca’s Angel, a rival two years older who would return 12 months later to retain her crown. 

Radiohead, third in 2009, and The Platinum Queen, runner-up in 2022, have since also gone close for the two-year-olds, but a sense that Lyric Fantasy’s odds-on romp in 1992 would open the floodgates has failed to materialise. 

Lyric Fantasy had only 7st 8lb on her back, with her rivals having to concede up to 26lb because of the weight-for-age allowance. Lady Iman and Spicy Marg will themselves receive between 22lb and 27lb this time, but their respective jockeys will be able to breathe a little easier, having 8st 2lb to carry. 

It seems a staggering amount of weight for the older horse to try and give, especially in the case of Lady Iman, a relatively early foal (born on February 5) who is only ten to 11 months younger than the three-year-olds in the line-up.  

In addition, she’s already had five races (like Lyric Fantasy before her), three of them Group contests, plus is proven over a furlong further. She landed the Molecomb at Glorious Goodwood in emphatic fashion last month and is drawn low, which is perceived to be an advantage. 

The trouble is, she will have to run faster than ever before and while there has been style to her wins, they have lacked some substance. Consequently, Timeform have her on a rating of 104, and to put that in context Acapulco was on 116 before she turned up. Trainer Ger Lyons was not keen on the idea of running, but has been outvoted. 

Meanwhile, Spicy Marg was foaled on March 15, 2023, when most of us were focusing on day two of the Cheltenham Festival and Ireland were winning every race bar the Coral Cup (hope you are enjoying your retirement, Langer Dan). She is the baby among the 17 runners but why she is ten points bigger than Lady Iman, at 14-1, is difficult to fathom. 

The pair were both in action at Goodwood, on the same ground over the same trip. It gave us a perfect opportunity to judge them on the clock, albeit Lady Iman was carrying 1lb more in a higher-profile race. 

Spicy Marg was quicker than Lady Iman in all bar one of the five furlongs (the penultimate one) and overall was 0.33 seconds quicker. The RaceiQ data reveals she clocked a zippy 10.05sec in the second furlong, which augurs well for her coping with what is sure to be a frenetic early gallop on Friday.  

Lady Iman seemed to win with something in hand, but, then again, so did Spicy Marg, who was going away at the finish. She was a revelation, looking suited by more patient tactics after making the running on her previous start. 

The good news for the young pretenders is that the older sprinters are, at best, an average bunch. American Affair, No Half Measures and Jm Jungle have underlined the point, scooping some of this summer’s top sprints, having graduated from handicap company. 

But that is not to say this will be anything but fiercely run, with no hiding places. 

She’s Quality (drawn 11) and Night Raider (8) are rapid, all-action sprinters who leave the stalls as if their tails are on fire. Frost At Dawn (6), Arizona Blaze (9) and Jm Jungle (13) do not like to hang about either, while Spartan Warrior (15) and Celandine (16) also like to get on with things. 

You would imagine the race being teed up for a finisher, but it is rare for any Nunthorpe winner to swoop from off the pace. Flick back through all the recent victors and they have either made all or been somewhere close to the pace, with York’s flat terrain assisting those in a hurry, especially when the ground is on the quick side. 

The one I keep coming back to is Arizona Blue, a general 6-1 chance who with mark of 113 is the joint-highest rated runner in the line-up. 

He stood up well to a busy campaign as a two-year-old last season, including when touched off in the valuable Sales’ race over 6f at this meeting, and has continued to thrive on his racing this term, being beaten a neck by Time for Sandals in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot in June before dropping back to the minimum trip and landing the Group Two Sapphire Stakes with authority at The Curragh last time. 

Arizona Blaze was much too strong for Mgheera in the latter race, and that horse had previously defeated She’s Quality in the Temple Stakes at Haydock. His form stacks up, with She’s Quality and Time For Sandals (despite dropping in trip and having a 5lb penalty) subsequently both going close in the King George at Goodwood last month. 

This easy 5f is probably not an optimum for Arizona Blaze, but RaceiQ tells us it took him just 1.88mph to hit 20mph at Royal Ascot, which suggests he can beak on terms with the fastest around. And in a race where plenty could be run off their feet by the closing stages, his ability to stay further will be an asset. 

Perhaps most significant, the main pace looks centre to high. It means Arizona Blaze, who is trained by Adrian Murray and will be ridden by David Egan, could be in the right place at the right time.