Five horses to follow at Newmarket on Wednesday

Tipster: Dave Nevison

Best odds: 11-1

It is highly likely that most punters will be drawn towards the William Haggas runner Realign and the Andrew Balding stable debutant Double Rush and there are very good reasons for keeping a close eye on the pair of them. It is tough to decide which one will be most improved and/or ready for today, however, and at the odds I am happy to look amongst the double figure odds runners in a race where most bookies are offering four places. 

Diligently doesn’t have a dissimilar profile to that pair in that he had a small lull in his form midsummer but looked a very promising horse in the spring and autumn. He won at Windsor in August and ran really well on his final start at Thirsk, finishing second behind Eternal Sunshine and is 7lb better off for ¾ of a length. Both the winner and the third home in that event won on their next start so the form is strong and Diligently is just a pound higher in the weights. 

Clive Cox has his string in very good form this spring and has gelded this horse over the winter so there is a possibility Diligently might well be a significantly improved performer this spring. 

Tipster: Andy Stephens

Best odds: 7/2

Aidan O’Brien has yet to land the Feilden Stakes, with his four previous runners in the race having finished no closer than third. Perhaps Isaac Newton can put the record straight for him.

The Derby entry was strong at the finish when winning in a slick time at Goodwood last summer, as he had been when touched off on his debut by a smart stablemate at The Curragh. On both occasions his Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) was best, as befits a colt bred for middle distances 

We have no data for his subsequent efforts in France, but he enhanced his reputation when a close fourth to Pierre Bonnard in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud and now drops from Group One company to Listed class.

The data reveals Ryan Moore’s A/E at Newmarket is a surprisingly low 0.73 in the past 12 months, but the bookmakers usually price up his mounts defensively and so we won’t hold that against him.

Poseidon’s Warrior heads the betting, but he’s achieved less than Isaac Newton and his easy win at Goodwood in October was achieved from the front in a slow-run race. 

Tipster: Ross Millar

Best odds: 13/8

Tipster: RaceiQ nap of the day (Andy Stephens)

Best odds: 3/1

Boiling Point is a smart front-runner, and it looks like he could get a softish lead here on a track he excels at.

The sectionals show that Clifford Lee got the fractions spot on when the combination made all in the Cambridgeshire last season and he can repeat the trick.

Boiling Point had previously rallied tenaciously when beaten a head in the Strensall Stakes at York, when he had Skukuza and King’s Gambit behind.

We can put a line through his below-par comeback run in the Winter Derby at Lingfield, when friendless in the betting, as that steadily run race on a tight, turning track did not suit him. His FSP was 110% that day and all his best efforts are when hovering around the region of 100%.

He should be sharper here and this straight course, where he has yet to finish out of the first two in four visits, suits him admirably.

Lee’s Actual over Expected (A/E) at Newmarket is a healthy 1.64, while trainer Karl Burke’s A over E at Headquarters is even better, being 1.77. Anything over 1 is a positive.

Damysus is favourite after fending off Gladius in the Darley Stakes over course and distance in October, but he has got a 3lb penalty to shoulder for that success and the runner-up had previously finished further behind Boiling Point in the Strensall. 

Tipster: Alex Scott

Best odds: 6-1

She is yet to race beyond six furlongs, but America Queen has enough stamina on the damside of her pedigree to suggest this trip should be well within range and she can land a minor upset in the Nell Gwyn Stakes for Richard Hughes and Rossa Ryan.

The daughter of Havana Grey was a wide-margin winner on debut before finishing second in the Lowther and then a close-up fourth in the Cheveley Park. It was to her credit that she shaped so well in Group company with such little experience and, despite finishing outside of the places last time, she was closing on the winner True Love as they hit the line, having looked done for tactical speed running out of the dip, which is backed up by the RaceiQ data.

She recorded the fastest Finishing Speed Percentage of the race (102.08%) and this trip of seven furlongs can see her to better effect. In any case, her form is better than those at the head of the market and she looks the value play stepping down in class against horses going the opposite way.

Trainer Richard Hughes also had a winner with his only runner at Newmarket on Tuesday, so there are signs that the yard is coming into form and she rates my best bet of the day.