Talk Of New York seeks to underline his 2000 Guineas claims at Newmarket on Tuesday, but will he deliver? Andy Stephens studies the RaceiQ data, which yielded two winning naps (100-30 and 9-4) out of three at the Randox Grand National Festival. Watch how Talk Of New York won on his debut NapSelection: TALK OF NEW YORK
Top Speed: 41.34mph. Final 2f on mile debut: 22.22sec.
Talk Of New York is a best-priced 7-1 for the 2000 Guineas on May 2, with only Bow Echo a shorter price than him in the betting.
The Charlie Appleby-trained colt has got to be winning this in handsome style to justify those odds, and it’s a little surprising he is not shorter than 4-6 to dispatch four rivals, one of them a stablemate, who have official ratings no higher than 98.
There had already been a bit of a buzz about the Wootton Bassett colt before he made his debut over a mile on the all-weather at Kempton in mid-October and he did not disappoint.
The acceleration he showed in the final two furlongs was striking, clocking 10.92sec in the penultimate furlong, when he hit a top speed of 41.34mph. That was more than 2mph quicker than anything else in the field, and RaceiQ assessed the time as 2.29sec quicker than Par.
He followed that up with a final furlong of 11.3sec, all under hand riding with William Buick easing down in the closing stages. Go Rimbaud, not unfancied himself that day, chased him home, being beaten 5 1/2 lengths, and won a maiden back at Kempton last week.
Not surprisingly, the performance of Talk Of New York drew comparisons with the debut win of his stablemate, Notable Speech, over the same course and distance, en route to him winning the 2000 Guineas. He won in similar style, finishing off the final two furlongs 0.14sec quicker, but in a final time that was 1.85sec slower carrying 11lb less.
Notable Speech carried on his education on the all-weather but Talk Of New York instead reappeared in Dubai’s 2000 Guineas at Meydan in late February.
Talk Of New York met with defeat in Dubai
He went off at 4-9 but Appleby had been cautious beforehand and his budding star was beaten a length into third in a frenetic race where he sat last, a long way out of his ground, and challenged wide.
Talk Of New York briefly looked like he might still prevail when motoring through furlongs six (11.01sec) and seven (10.95sec) but he had been a bit keen early on and in the final furlong he could not sustain his run (11.81sec) under considerate handling (Buick gave him one tap).
The more streetwise winner, Title Role, had the benefit of two earlier runs at Meydan and got first run. In any case, he looks a useful performer in his own right.
Talk Of New York should be a sharper here, and Appleby is clearly keen to give him some more experience ahead of a much bigger assignment on Saturday fortnight. He’s also equipping him with a first-time hood, which he wore to post at Meydan.
His gelded stablemate, Maximized, is second in the betting at 4-1, but he’s unraced beyond 6f and it could be he’s just in here to set even fractions. He had also been entered in a handicap at the meeting on Thursday.
The one for the forecast could be
Richie’s Rocket, a wide-margin winner at Lingfield who was subsequently unfortunate in a Listed race there after rearing at the start and then getting short of room. The data suggests he would have won given a level playing field.
3.35 NEWMARKET: Racing TV HandicapSELECTION: DYONISOS
Top Speed: 44.08mph. Trainer’s A/E at Newmarket: 1.33.
Ian Williams was a guest on Luck On Sunday
Dyonisos has had only five runs for Ian Williams and indicated he would be winning soon when third to Run Boy Run in a 5f handicap at Meydan in February.
He did not help himself by being only eleventh quickest to reach 20mph that day, but that effort behind last season’s Ayr Gold Cup hero needs marking up, too, as he fared best of those held up, staying on well to be fastest through the final two furlongs.
The four-year-old certainly finished off better than he had over 6f on his previous run in Dubai, although that run might have been needed.
William Buick takes over in the saddle, and the trainer's A/E at Newmarket (Actual Over Expected) is 1.33. Anything over 1 is a positive.
The bulk of the opposition lack a recent run, including Regal Envoy, who took the spoils last season but usually needs an outing or two to peak, and Rosario, who ran well in several big sprints last season but often misses the start.
SELECTION:REAL GAIN
Top Speed: 41.65mph. Best 0-20mph form figures: 21221211.
Real Gain is risky given his all or nothing profile but he’s smart on his day, usually goes well fresh, and is a past winner on the Rowley Mile.
The six-year-old is a habitually fast starter with his 0-20mph form figures reading 21221211. It would be no surprise if James Doyle is quickly calling the shots on him and, as we know, front-runners can excel on the Rowley Mile.
He was always close up when a fine third in the Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood last year, having been off a year, having won on his debut as a two-year-old plus his first start at three.
Real Gain went off favourite for the Cambridgeshire on the back of that Goodwood run but he was drawn on the wrong side and dropped away after leading those on the stands’ side.
The lightly raced six-year-old is now only 1lb higher than when bolting up at Newmarket in the autumn of 2023 (just seven runs in the interim) and his trainer seems to have his horses well forward. He may just boss these from start to finish.