Craven Meeting tips: O’Brien relying on Isaac Newton

Top Speed: 41.02mph. Goodwood win: 2.8sec quicker than Par.

Aidan O’Brien has yet to land the Feilden Stakes, with his four previous runners in the race having finished no closer than third. Perhaps Isaac Newton can put the record straight for him.

The Derby entry was strong at the finish when winning in a slick time at Goodwood last summer, as he had been when touched off on his debut by a smart stablemate at The Curragh. On both occasions his Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) was best, as befits a colt bred for middle distances 

We have no data for his subsequent efforts in France, but he enhanced his reputation when a close fourth to Pierre Bonnard in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud and now drops from Group One company to Listed class.

The data reveals Ryan Moore’s A/E at Newmarket is a surprisingly low 0.73 in the past 12 months, but the bookmakers usually price up his mounts defensively and so we won’t hold that against him.

Poseidon’s Warrior heads the betting, but he’s achieved less than Isaac Newton and his easy win at Goodwood in October was achieved from the front in a slow-run race. 

Top Speed: 41.25mph. Karl Burke A/E at Newmarket: 1.77.

Boiling Point is a smart front-runner, and it looks like he could get a softish lead here on a track he excels at.

The sectionals show that Clifford Lee got the fractions spot on when the combination made all in the Cambridgeshire last season and he can repeat the trick.

Boiling Point had previously rallied tenaciously when beaten a head in the Strensall Stakes at York, when he had Skukuza and King’s Gambit behind.

We can put a line through his below-par comeback run in the Winter Derby at Lingfield, when friendless in the betting, as that steadily run race on a tight, turning track did not suit him. His FSP was 110% that day and all his best efforts are when hovering around the region of 100%.

He should be sharper here and this straight course, where he has yet to finish out of the first two in four visits, suits him admirably.

Lee’s Actual over Expected (A/E) at Newmarket is a healthy 1.64, while trainer Karl Burke’s A over E at Headquarters is even better, being 1.77. Anything over 1 is a positive.

Damysus is favourite after fending off Gladius in the Darley Stakes over course and distance in October, but he has got a 3lb penalty to shoulder for that success and the runner-up had previously finished further behind Boiling Point in the Strensall.

3.35 NEWMARKET: Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes

Top Speed: 40.60mph. 0-20mph form: 2.24sec.

This looks a strong edition of the Nell Gwyn although all the runners are 40-1 or bigger for the 1000 Guineas.

Mubasimah was fastest to 20mph in both her races last season and should soon be in the thick of things on a track where she has already shown plenty of ability.

The Frankel filly made all in a hot maiden over course and distance in late September, dictating a steady pace and pulling out plenty to win readily, with Act Of Kindness and Cherry Baker, who reoppose, among the support cast.

A couple of weeks later, she and Act Of Kindness were back in action on the Rowley Mile.

Mubasimah was an excellent neck second to Calendar Girl in the Oh So Sharp Stakes, while Act Of Kindness went a couple of places later in another maiden. They carried the same weight, but Mubasimah recorded a time 2.27sec quicker.

Mubasimah has apparently not grown much over the winter, according to her trainer Andrew Balding, but if she can pick up from where she left off, then another bold bid is on the cards.