Wednesday tips: Dave Nevison has three bets at Carlisle

Rogue Millions was left in the Betfred Derby until very late, which might well have been ambitious, but this traditional Carlisle handicap looks as though it could be a straightforward stepping stone to much greater things by the end of the season. 

The three-year-old has so much going for him compared to his rivals, so he is going to go off quite short, but is very difficult to oppose. 

James Owen’s youngster signalled he was useful on his second start when finishing third behind two useful rivals at Nottingham, and not enjoying the best of runs. 

He stayed on well last time to win at Chepstow and looked very much as though the extra two furlongs here will be well within his compass. Rossa Ryan being booked to ride is the icing on the cake. 

Crack Shot doesn’t come without some risks as he has produced more than one unexplained poor run throughout his career, but he has a good opportunity here to pick up one of the oldest established handicaps in the calendar. 

He disappointed when apparently losing his action on his second start this season, but has run two other good races for the Kubler team so far, and now that he is 2lb below the mark he last won off, the five-year-old looks poised to strike. 

A stiff test over a mile looks set to suit him well, and Crack Shot looks to have secured a good draw in stall two. He will probably challenge late off what looks set to be a very strong pace. 

Blufferonthebus likes Carlisle and has won here before, as well as running several good races in the past year or so. 

He has been busy in June and has been beaten just half a length into second on both his latest outings, which came within 48 hours last week. 

Provided he can maintain that form seven days later here, he looks to have a very good chance of going one better off the same mark. 

He was 3lb higher when Sam James won on him last summer, and is definitely weighted to land another race soon.