Tingle Creek: any chinks in hot favourite Jonbon?

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Not bad form figures, are they?

Much has been written about Jonbon - especially in his younger years given his £570,000 price tag and the inevitable comparisons to his brilliant full brother Douvan – and perhaps as a result of that initial discourse it can still prove easy to overlook his wonderful record. 

Unlike his illustrious sibling, the first thing to note about Jonbon is his ‘availability’ – in his three full seasons with Nicky Henderson so far he has raced five, six and five times respectively in each campaign with 10 Grade One assignments thrown in. He backed up fairly quickly from Aintree when winning at Sandown on his final start of last season, while he was all heart when repelling El Fabiolo as a novice at Aintree just three weeks after running admirably behind Constitution Hill at Cheltenham.Of his three career defeats, Jonbon was beaten by fine rivals on two occasions (El Fabiolo in the 2023 Arkle besides Constitution Hill), while he was given an inefficient ride and jumped particularly poorly when downed as 1/4F in the rescheduled Clarence House Chase at Cheltenham earlier this year. Jonbon nearly pulled it out of the fire but went down by a neck. 

Jonbon missed the Champion Chase last year after his trainer pulled him from the Cheltenham Festival highlight on the day of the race given the poor health of the stable string at the worst possible time, and seeing Edwardstone lead a depleted field at a steady gallop for most of the way before Captain Guinness galloped on to win must have raised more than a question of ‘what might have been’.

The Betfair Tingle Creek this Saturday is the big early-season target before another run leading into a first Champion Chase tilt in March and, ahead of the weekend, we look at whether any potential issues lie in wait for the short-priced favourite as he bids for an eighth Grade One triumph. 

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Jonbon needed the line at Cheltenham last time when seeing off Boothill by a length and a half, with Edwardstone just a further three quarters of a length back in third. Jonbon was priced at 1/3F for that return and, given he’s rated 12lb clear of Boothill and 6lb clear of Edwardstone on official ratings, it’s perfectly fair to have expected more. 

The Race iQ data does offer a different perspective, though. 

All three of Jonbon’s career defeats have come at Cheltenham and Prestbury Park probably wouldn’t rate his ideal home tie, so his jumping performance last time arguably deserves additional credit. He achieved his best-ever Jump Index figure there last time; his score of 8.2 (out of 10) eclipses his scores in the Clarence House (5.7), last year’s Shloer Chase (7.7) and in the Arkle two seasons ago (7.4). 

While Jonbon got an easy lead last time, the pace did notably quicken going down the hill for the final time and he hit his highest-recorded top speed figure over jumps so far (36.3 mph in the third-last furlong from the finish). he may have just felt that in the final reckoning.

The finishing speed percentage (FSP) for the race was 107 per cent, highlighting the leisurely pace of the early stages. Indeed, that FSP figure is the highest for a race Jonbon has ever run in under the Race iQ records. The FSP figures for his last three runs at Sandown Park read 98.2 per cent, 98.8 per cent and 99.8 per cent across a variety of ground, so it’s fair to say this may pan out differently and indeed more favourably, especially after the benefit of a prep run.

The two-mile chasers are a fairly small pool of horses and Jonbon is clearly the best of these – no rival in opposition has ever beaten Jonbon, while he has beaten Edwardstone four times – but Quilixios is an interesting potential opponent this time. 

A former Triumph winner rated 155 over fences in Ireland, he’s proven a slower-burner over the larger obstacles but jumped with real enthusiasm at Naas last time when beating heavy odds-on chance Marine Nationale (over 10 obstacles, the winner recorded 6.99 Lengths Gained Jumping and an excellent Jump Index figure of 8.8) and he’s certainly worth his place here if he can bring similar to this field. 

More interesting is the fact that he is a front-runner, which perhaps could lead to conflict at the head of affairs with Jonbon. Edwardstone’s best recent run was an all-the-way success at Newbury early this year and, while he’s taken a lead in recent starts, he could revert back to forward-going traits as well. It could be something to potentially bear in mind when taking a short price, even if it is something Jonbon should overcome.

As mentioned by website editor Any Stephens, back-to-back winners of the Tingle Creek have become a rarity with no successive winner since Kauto Star (2006), while Chacun Pour Soi (2021) and Fox Norton (2017) fluffed their lines at odds-on in recent years.

More generally though, the overall record this century of ‘repeat bidders’ still makes for encouraging reading. Two-time winner Flagship Uberalles brought up the hat-trick in 2001 while Moscow Flyer, Kauto Star, Twist Magic, Master Minded, Sire De Grugy and Politologue have all won the Tingle Creek again after a previous win. Some formidable names of two-mile chasing are listed there admittedly, but the general feel is that this is a specialist’s race within a particular discipline and horses that contest this race again after a previous win are 7 from 17 in total (41.2 per cent, +£3.31, 1.51 A/E).