Friday tips: Five RaceiQ clues for Sandown and Exeter

The Grade Two Betfair Winter Novices' Hurdle at Sandown (1.58) features five runners who line up after winning on their hurdling debut, and another who has won his past two starts over obstacles. Something must give, and we are going to need every scrap of evidence to choose between them. 

Bill Joyce and Quebecious head the market and have met before, when separated by a neck in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in March, when both were well beaten. On that occasion, Bill Joyce went off at 7-1, with Quebecious a friendless 66-1 (his Betfair SP was 149-1). 

This time, they are similarly priced, having both scored on their respective hurdling debuts. Each won comfortably, but the RaceiQ metrics reveal key differences. 

Bill Joyce achieved a Jump Index score of just 6, gaining about two lengths with his leaping. By contrast, Quebecious was awarded a score of 7.7 and gained 9.27 lengths with how he got from A to B. 

The Jump Index is a metric that has only recently been introduced by RaceiQ and quantifies a horse’s jumping ability at each obstacle in a race, and throughout its career. It compares the efficiency, speed and fluency of a horse's jumps against all those recorded in the RaceiQ database. 

These figures are going to allow us to compare the jumping abilities of horses that have never run against each other, independent of any differences in tracks, ground conditions, or race distances. 

In this instance, of course, we are working with limited data, and it can be dangerous to make assumptions about horses on the back of only one run each over hurdles. But first impressions count and it’s clear that Quebecious took immediately to his new discipline, whereas Bill Joyce was, to put it politely, a little rough around the edges. 

The same can be said for Kingston Pride (5.7) and, to a lesser extent, Admiral Stewart (6.7). Ballyechno has improved his score with each outing (6.1, 6.8 and then a 7) but, even with experience, has yet to match the polish of Quebecious. Pony Soprano earned a 7.5 when winning at Exeter in late October when, incidentally, he gained 16.59 lengths with his efficient jumping. 

Of course, being able to jump well is only part of the formulae. Speed, stamina and the ability to cope with testing ground will also be essential on this occasion. Quebecious seems to have those attributes, too, as befits a half-brother to Brindisi Breeze, who won the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in 2012. He can become Nicholls’ fifth winner of the race since 2004. 

The Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Novices' Chase at Cheltenham last month was a story of what might have been for Resplendent Grey. He lost out in a muddling contest by half a length to front-running Hyland, on whom Nico De Boinville was allowed to dictate slow fractions. 

In addition to getting a tactically shrewd ride, Hyland also jumped best. The RaceiQ data reveals he leapt quickest at 13 of the 19 fences, gaining an aggregate of 12 lengths in the air. 

By contrast, Resplendent Grey, ridden with restraint by Sean Bowen, was slickest at just two of the obstacles (the 12th and 16th) and overall lost almost three lengths. That 15-length swing was to make all the difference up the Cheltenham hill. 

Even then, Resplendent Grey might have won had he not surrendered valuable time when it mattered most. The grey lost 6.25mph at the second last, when he put in an extra stride and gave the fence a nudge, and then another 5.79mph at the final fence, where he was a little hesitant after his error about ten seconds earlier (those last two fences at jumping’s Headquarters come in swift succession). Contrast that to the two fences before, when he had given up just 2.78mph and 2.46mph. 

Resplendent Grey is not a bad jumper. Indeed, when the RaceiQ machine digested all his Cheltenham stats – time in the jumping envelope, entry and exit speeds plus speed recovery time – he got an overall mark of 7.2. And when winning at Uttoxeter on his previous start, he had been awarded a 7.6. We are not anywhere near Fastorslow territory here, but it’s acceptable for a novice learning his trade. 

And before going over fences, he had been OK over hurdles, registering between 7.7 and 8.3 in his final four recorded starts over the smaller obstacles. 

My biggest concern for him on Friday would not be his jumping, but his stamina, because he has often looked quite speedy and his latest run was not a proper test of staying power. However, an average gallop again looks on the cards. 

Handstands fell on his chasing debut and some of his Jump Index hurdling scores were not great, either, so for the forecast, I’d be leaning towards Cadell, who earned a 7.5 when beating two rivals at Wetherby last time. He achieved little in terms of form but his jumping in the second half of the race was particularly good. He was quickest over the final eight fences, whereas his rivals had been best over the first five. 

Cadell was at his most productive/most comfortable when Derek Fox put his foot on the accelerator a bit more. It will be interesting to see if he forces things from the off, a tactic that can pay rich dividends at Sandown. 

On some race days, you effectively get the chance to back two horses for the price of one. That’s the case at Sandown on Friday, as Holy Joe Smoke ties in directly with Resplendent Glory. If you like the prospects of one, then you must like the other. And vice versa. 

The pair met on their respective chase debuts in a handicap over 2m 4f at Uttoxeter on October 18, when Resplendent Glory took the spoils. He conceded 13lb to Holy Joe Smoke that day and beat him by 5½ lengths. 

However, for a long way it seemed that Holy Joe Smoke would prevail, reflected by his in-running odds shrinking to 1.21 on Betfair. He raced exuberantly in the lead, jumping for fun, but the combination of an 11-month absence, late errors plus a smart rival eventually proved his undoing. 

Overall, he jumped best of the six runners, gaining more than five lengths and earning a Jump Index score of 7.8. The data shows he was the most efficient at seven of the first nine fences. 

But in the closing stages, perhaps as fatigue became a factor, his jumping became less convincing. Four out, he lost more than 6mph - at eight of the previous nine obstacles he had lost between 1.06 mph and 2.44mph – and it was a similar story two out (lost 5.1mph) and the final fence (6.01mph) with his speed recovery time of 5.21 seconds at final obstacle being a consequence of an untidy landing (at eight of the first nine fences his recovery speed had been an impressive 0.42sec or less). 

Resplendent Glory ended up gaining seven lengths on him over the final four fences, which proved pivotal.  

Holy Joe Smoke now moves up to 3m, which will probably worry some given his late wobble at Uttoxeter, but this point-to-point winner should strip fitter for his comeback run and is proven over the trip, splitting Ed Keeper and Hyland in a 3m handicap hurdle at Newbury last term. In addition, he’s also equipped with a first-time tongue-tie. 

The Southwest Rails Solution Handicap Chase at Exeter (1pm) would not be an obvious source of Cheltenham Festival winners but has an increasingly impressive roll of honour. 

Siruh Du Luc won the 2018 edition before scoring at the Cheltenham Festival later in the season, as did L’Homme Presse in 2021. And the 2022 winner, Shakem Up’arry, scored at the Festival this year. 

Last year’s renewal of the race was lost to the elements, but this year’s running features a most interesting candidate in Lowry’s Bar. 

The six-year-old, trained by Philip Hobbs & Johnson White, made a most promising chasing debut in a 15-runner handicap at Bangor last month, when runner-up to the progressive Jagwar. 

Lowry’s Bar impressed in the jumping department, gaining 5.68 lengths in a competitive heat and registering an 8.4 on the Jump Index. He looked to have the race in the bag between the last two fences but Jagwar clawed him back. 

The pair pulled away from Garincha, who also lines up here. He jumped best of all in that race, gaining 10.17 lengths, but did have much more experience than the pair who beat him. 

Lowry’s Bar may only need to repeat that initial effort to go one better but, naturally, is open to more improvement. 

And keep an eye on the fourth home in that Bangor race, Mount Tempest. He shaped well under a considerate ride and looks to have bright prospects of gaining a repeat success in the 1.23 at Sandown. 

The RaceiQ data does not record the distance that trainers send their horses to meetings, but perhaps it should. It’s a 900-mile round trip from Lucinda Russell’s gorgeous base in Milnathort to Esher, which is probably why she’s only ever had 24 runners at the venue. 

Seventeen of those raiders have won or finished in the frame, and I think it goes without saying that she’s not sending Cadell (runs 2.33) and I Wish You, who contests the closing 2m handicap hurdle, simply for a day out. 

The Russell camp have had I Wish You since he was a two-year-old and view him as a chaser who will want further than 2m in time. But he’s an interesting horse in the here and now, too, earning Jump Index scores of 8.5 and 8.7 on his past two starts. Lofty figures like that, for a four-year-old, are not to be sniffed at. 

He gained a whopping 17.92 lengths with his jumping when winning a ten-runner novices’ hurdle at Carlisle in October, when returning from six months off. He jumped best at first seven flights and was second best at the final two. 

That kind of athleticism is going to be a big help here, while he also showed great tenacity at Carlisle and has only ever raced in the mud. 

The one unknown is whether a handicap mark of 117 is a little stiff for his venture south, although the pair who chased him home at Carlisle have both won since and it was only three runs ago that he was beaten a length by the promising Reckless Eric, who is rated 125 after winning at Cheltenham last time. 

Authentic Legacy and Cavern Club look live threats on form. The former’s past three Jumping scores have been 6.9, 6.7 and 7.8, while the latter has chalked up 5.9, 6.3, 6,2 and 7.8.