The Data Detective: clues and tips for Saturday

Thundering On can confirm herself as a filly from out of the top drawer by landing the Paddy Power Pretty Polly Stakes at The Curragh on Saturday.

The daughter of Frankel, trained by Joseph O’Brien, was dazzling when cruising to victory in the Oaks at Epsom this month.

In truth, it was an ordinary edition, with the nine runners having collectively won only 15 of their previous 43 races, none of them in Group One company.

And not one runner had an official rating higher than 110, with the top-rated runner, Venetian Lace, clearly failing to handle the tacky conditions and trailing home last.

The winning time was average, too, but Thundering On’s closing stages point to her star quality.

She was in a different league as she surged to victory by 3¾ lengths (0.69 seconds) under a cool hold-up ride by Dylan Browne McMonagle.

The field initially went quite quick and McMonagle anchored the Joseph O'Brien-trained filly in last, showing no interest in budging from there for the first mile.

She powered into contention on the bridle, and when McMonagle eventually pressed the button, heading to the final furlong, it was quickly all over.

Thundering On dipped a smidgeon under 12sec in the final furlong, providing a splash of red (fast) in the sectionals when all around her was a sea of blue (slow). What she found off the bridle in the closing stages, having previously not run beyond ten furlongs, was the cherry on top of the cake.

The runner-up, Legacy Link, who had previously won the Musidora, was only able to respond with 12.69sec. The runner-up did not convince with her stamina, although, bar the winner, she was the only runner to dip under 13sec in the final 220 yards. You can excuse her subsequent below-par run at Royal Ascot.

The others either did not get home or simply lacked the gears to keep up. From furlong seven onwards, only the first two avoided a “bluewash”.

One niggle is that Thundering On is unproven on fast ground, although the word "good" featured in the going description when she showed a fine turn of foot to land the Salsabil Stakes on her penultimate start.

She won that day in a time 8sec quicker than Ezeliya has prevailed in two years earlier (officially the going was the same) before she won at Epsom.

Thundering On drops back to ten furlongs at the weekend, but she’s clearly not short of gears.

Estrange is also a class act, but she faces an unenviable task conceding 12lb.

Here are three other Saturday fancies: 

Frankies Dream won at York last summer and has been knocking on the door in recent starts, finishing runner-up back on the Knavesmire last time.

The four-year-old has had the best Finishing Speed Percentages in 13 of his past 21 races, including last time, and is fancied get on top in the closing stages. 

Fortification should make a bold bid in the £65,000 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dash Handicap. 

He’s already run three cracking races on the Knavesmire this season, including when pouncing from off the pace to win at the Dante meeting in May. 

His Finishing Speed Percentages make for healthy reading and his final furlong of 12.04 seconds that day was on a different plane to the opposition, who included Stargazed, Naana’s Shadow and Shes Got A Brother.

Team Player has plenty going for him in the Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate. 

The chestnut gelding has had three different trainers in the past year, but different changes of scenery have done little to halt his progression, and he remains unexposed as a stayer. 

He put up another personal best when a staying-on fifth in the Chester Cup last time, being beaten only two-and-a-half lengths, albeit without looking like winning.

The data reveals he dipped under 12 seconds in each of the final three furlongs, and that is a rarity. Indeed, out of 129 horses in the RaceiQ database to have run over that distance at the track, only two others have achieved that feat. 

And of those 129, Team Player also posted the fifth fastest time over the final three furlongs.

The four-year-old had previously begun the year with a win over course and distance before following up in resolute style at Musselburgh. In the former, he scored in a time 4.48sec quicker than the RaceiQ par, earning himself a Time Index of 7.5 when the meeting average was 6.1.

Team Player runs off the same mark as at Chester and RaceiQ’s Draw Bias metric suggests only Rise The Thunder and Saint Etienne have more favourable stalls. 

The grey Night Of Thunder filly is clearly well regarded and she made her debut in Group Three company at Naas last month.

It was a bold move that almost paid off, too, as she ran Victorious to a neck, with the pair six lengths clear. Controlla was the quicker on the pair in the final two furlongs and the winner, of course, went on to land the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot.

Controlla went off a heavily backed 3-1 for the Windsor Castle last time on the strengths of that but she bungled the start – 20th fastest to 20mph and still in that position after the first furlong - plus got lit up, giving herself little chance of getting home. She still made a promising move between two out and the final furlong before fading. 

I’d put a line through that Ascot run and focus on the Naas run and the fact she is now written off as a 14-1 chance. She rates an each-way play in a race where Albany runner-up Sun Goddess is a hot favourite.