Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby: runner-by-runner guide and 12-1 tip

Strapping individual who made a suitably big impression when winning comfortably on debut last July, and though unable to add to his tally in four further starts at two, lost little caste in defeat behind the Ballydoyle quartet of Constitution River, Benvenuto Cellini, Christmas Day and Pierre Bonnard. 

That theme has continued this term, first chasing home Christmas Day in a stop-start Ballysax before filling fourth spot from an impossible position in the Prix du Jockey Club won by Constitution River.  

Met trouble in running on the latter occasion, and but for that might have gone very close, so shouldn’t be underestimated here with the possibility of further improvement over this longer trip. 

Third to Bow Echo in the Royal Lodge and split Hawk Mountain and Benvenuto Cellini on testing ground in the Futurity Trophy at two, 

However, doesn’t appear to have trained on as well as close relation Lambourn judging by three starts this term, having failed to back up a better effort in the Dante when only beating two home (in first-time cheekpieces) in the Derby. 

Obviously worth noting that the ground was barely raceable at Epsom that day, but lots to prove at present on the back of it. 

Not rushed as a two-year-old but looked a horse of some promise when winning at Goodwood and Redcar, and proved that to be the case when a neck-second to Maltese Cross in the Lingfield Derby Trial on his reappearance. 

Travelled well for a long way when a gallant fourth to Christmas Day at Epsom (beaten seven and a quarter lengths; only tiring late in the day), with jockey feeling that the going didn’t play to his strengths. 

Had a tough race that day, but no back number if running here three weeks on (has never been turned out this quickly before) for a yard that won it in 2022 with Westover. 

Frankel – Newspaperofrecord (Lope De Vega) 

T: Aidan O’Brien. Best odds: 6-4. 

Large-striding colt who cemented his position as Derby favourite with an emphatic four and a half-length Chester Vase win in May, but controversially deemed a non-runner in the race itself after getting his leg caught in the stalls (ran but finished well down the field after a slow start). 

There were plenty of reservations about the testing ground that day (only disappointing run at two came when third to Hawk Mountain in the Futurity on heavy at Doncaster), so should be much more at home under these conditions. 

Should be fresher than most (Ryan Moore was easy on him once his chance had gone at Epsom) and has an obvious opportunity to atone here. 

Well-fancied but made an awkward start when beaten on sole start at Newbury at two, but much more professional when making all over seven furlongs on his reappearance at Doncaster in April. 

Again dictated when making successful raid for 9.5-furlong contest at Gowran Park earlier this month, making a good impression with both paddock appearance and in the race itself, though that form is yet to be tested. 

Needs to take another step forward, but not one to discount too quickly given his progression, for all his prolific Italian family have mainly done their racing over shorter than this new distance. 

Very progressive son of Wootton Bassett who has been brought along much more steadily than some of his flashier stablemates. 

Followed the path of Paddington when graduating from winning the Madrid Handicap at Naas to the Tetrarch Stakes, and then found more improvement when upped in trip for the Gallinule Stakes back here later that month. 

Again took his form forward a notch (in reapplied cheekpieces) when landing the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot last week. 

This is obviously a quick turnaround if running, but is clearly very hardy (and lazy according to his jockey/trainer) so there’s no telling what his ceiling might be, and this race would appear a very good fit on paper. 

Pick of his juvenile form was a gutsy defeat of A Boy Named Susie, and progressed again when ahead of that rival and seven others in the Ballysax on his return. 

Not so good when third behind Item and Action in the Dante, but relished the test of stamina when given a positive ride by Ronan Whelan in the Derby at Epsom last time, in the perfect place throughout and able to fend off Maltese Cross for a two and three-quarter length success. 

Will need to have his stamina fully drawn out to be at his best here, but appears to be a little underestimated in the market once again. 

Bolted up when beating the useful Cannes here by six lengths on his second start at two. Only fifth in the Ballysax at Leopardstown on his reappearance in April, but took a step forward when seeing off Pierre Bonnard and Endorsement in the Derby Trial back there the following month. 

Again improved when third to Christmas Day at Epsom, a fine effort considering he wasted energy by being unruly beforehand and came from much further back than the winner. 

Best performances have come on much slower ground, though, so there must be some doubts about the suitability of good to firm going. 

Won the Zetland Stakes and Criterium de Saint-Cloud (two lengths ahead of A Boy Named Susie) at two, but looked badly in need of the run when well down in the field in the Ballysax on his reappearance. 

Short-head second to James J Braddock in the Derby Trial the following month, where the slow pace probably didn’t suit either, but failed to fire again when a very well-backed 7-2 chance for the Derby. 

Unwise to rule out any horse on their run that day, but didn’t appear to last home over the longer trip – despite having looked as if it would suit – so has a little bit to prove now. 

Brother to Baaeed, so no surprise he was sent off a warm order for his debut at Ascot (soft ground) in September where he showed a professionalism that belied his big, raw physical appearance. 

Gave trouble beforehand but more straightforward in the race itself when landing the bet365 Classic Trial at Sandown on his return in April, though reportedly quite sore afterwards. 

Has been pleasing connections at home ahead of this further step up in class, and shapes as if this longer trip will suit (Owen Burrows trained his half-brother Hukum to multiple wins over the distance, and further), however there must be some concern over ground conditions if it comes up very quick. 

Bumped into some good ones in three winless starts at two, but quickly off the mark on his return, beating subsequent winners Latin America and Asakir on testing ground here. 

Upset in the stalls and ran no real race when fourth behind James J Braddock in the Derby Trial, but took a step back in the right direction when a front-running third behind Causeway in the Gallinule last time. 

That form franked by the winner since, and has always looked a good fit for this race, but has something to prove on this quicker ground. 

Clearly, it’s very hard to accurately predict which Ballydoyle horses will run at this stage, but any of Benvenuto Cellini, Christmas Day or even Royal Ascot winner Causeway would have leading claims as Aidan O’Brien chases a remarkable 18th Irish Derby. 

The betting suggests Benvenuto Cellini is the one, but it still sticks with me that Christophe Soumillon thought he might be a French Derby horse last year, and the mile and a half here is a very different test of stamina compared to his Chester win. 

The recent dry spell may count against the likes of Christmas Day and Raaheeb, as well as James J Braddock, so preference at the prices is for A Boy Named Susie.  

He is the yardstick that many have been measured against this spring, having finished behind nearly all of Sunday’s Irish rivals at some point, but his overall level of form puts him bang there. 

He was undone by a slow pace when a never-nearer third in the Ballysax and his fourth in the Prix du Jockey Club can be upgraded (wide draw; had to come from a long way back and found trouble). 

These look ideal conditions for a first crack at the trip and, having had a longer break than all but two of his potential rivals, he looks a solid each-way bet at 12-1.