The 2022 Cheltenham Festival: a super statistic for every race

Figuring out what the next big trend is tells us what we should focus on, according to Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg. And he may well have a point because Willie Mullins’ grip on the Champion Bumper cannot go on for ever, can it?

Stats and trends can provide a clue or two in the search for Cheltenham winners but, of course, they are merely part of the jigsaw.

The below reflects many notable Festival trends, stats, facts and figures. But don’t let them cloud your judgement or determine your thinking a couple of weeks from now. Remember, rules are also there to be broken!

Six of the past nine winners have had an official rating of 153 or higher. They have been Vautour (155), Douvan (155), Altior (155), Klassical Dream (154), Shishkin (153) and, last year, Appreciate It (153). Much has been made of the quality of this year’s renewal but Dysart Dynamo (152) is the only runner rated higher than 148.

Between 1998 and 2006, four renewals were won by five-year-olds. However, since the 5lb age allowance was scrubbed 13 years ago, they are 0/13 in the race, albeit Fakir D’Oudairies went close two years ago. Allmankind was well-fancied 12 months ago but finished fourth of the five runners. Riviere D’etel, Haut En Couleurs and Saint Sam are set to fly the flag for the generation this year, with all three prominent in the ante-post betting.

Pay close attention to this one. If Cheltenham trends had a king, this one would be the ruler. Nine of the past ten runnings of the Ultima have been won by a horse wearing some form of headgear (cheekpieces or blinkers but never a visor) at prices ranging between 15-2 and 28-1. On four occasions they’ve enjoyed a 1-2, and in 2016 a spectacular 1-2-3 (the Trifecta paid £2,025). The year they missed the target, in 2018, the visored Shantou Flyer was beaten a neck at 14-1. A total of 89 horses have worn headgear in the race since 2012. Meanwhile, 128 have worn no headgear with Coo Star Sivola (5-1) their only victor in this period. If you’d put £10 on every horse wearing headgear in the race since 2012, you would be showing a profit of £445. Had you put £10 on all the horses without headgear, you would have lost £1,220. Last year, Vintage Clouds won in first-time cheekpieces at 28-1. This year, eight of the 24 runners will wear headgear - all of them wearing cheekpieces. Of those, Lostintranslation and Tea Clipper will wear the aid for the first time, while Discordantly and Kiltealy Briggs wore them for the first time on their latest outings and both won. Don’t say you haven’t been warned!

The past seven winners – Faugheen (111), Annie Power (11), Buveur D’Air (111), Buveur D’Air (111), Espor D’Allen (111), Epatante (11) and Honeysuckle (11) all lined up having not been beaten that season. Honeysuckle was the only horse in last year’s line-up who has had a blemish-free campaign and has again been flawless this term (111), with Teahupoo (111) also arriving on a roll. Appreciate It hasn’t tasted defeat either but, then again, he hasn’t run. In addition, 27 of the past 31winners of the race won on their most recent start. That does not augur well for such as Zanahiyr and Adagio.

Willie Mullins has saddled the winner in nine of the past 13 renewals (admittedly Quevega won six of them) and he’s been responsible for the runner-up on the four occasions he’s missed out. When his win run was interrupted in 2017, he went close with Vroum Vroum Mag (second) and Limini (third). Two years later, his Benie Des Dieux had victory in the bag when falling at the final flight and he also had the second in Stormy Ireland. Benie Des Dieux was beaten half-a-length into second in 2020, when Elfile (third) also represented him. And last year his Concertista looked all over the winner but was beaten a head. He runs a trio this time: Echoes In Rain, Stormy Ireland and Burning Victory.

France is also a good angle in the Boodles. Nine of the 17 winners began their careers there, and Saint Sam, who was second last year, went close to increasing that tally 12 months ago. Of the 50 entries still in the mix, the following seven started out in France: Iberique Du Seuil, Milldam, Petit Tonnerre, Skycutter, Swinging London, Tanganyika and Gaelic Warrior. The last-named has been well-touted.

Gordon Elliott has had nine runners in the National Hunt Chase. Four have won and the other five have failed to complete. His winners have been Chicago Grey (5-1), Cause Of Causes (8-1), Tiger Roll (16-1) and Ravenhill (12-1) so you would be showing a healthy profit if you had backed him blind. And last year he prepared Galvin, who won, and Escaria Ten, who was third, but they ran under the name of Denise Foster for well-documented reasons. So you could say he’s had five winners from 11 runners in it. All of Elliott’s winners (not Galvin) had been beaten on their previous start and two of them, Chicago Grey and Ravenill, had suffered a fall earlier in the campaign. Run Wild Fred and Braeside represent Cullantra House Stables this year.

Avert your eyes if you are a Stage Star supporter. He won the Challow Hurdle last time but the record of winners in that race stands at zero from 18, with Bravemansgame being the latest to come up short last year. The last Challow winner to win at the Festival in the same season was Wichita Lineman, who went on to win the Albert Bartlett in 2007.

Bravemansgame and Galopin Des Champs are unbeaten over fences and dominate the ante-post betting, although the latter seems likely to run in the Turners on Thursday. But flawless records over fences are often punctured in this race. This century, there have been only three winners who boasted a 100 per cent record over fences after victory in the race – Denman, Don Poli and Monkfish. The last-named made his backers sweat before landing cramped odds 12 months ago.

Only four winners since 2000 had run more than nine times over hurdles and one of those, William Henry, had only ten to his name before victory in 2019. Heaven Help Us kept up the trend last year when winning on her eighth start over hurdles at 33-1. The evidence is clear: look for lightly raced and second-season hurdlers.

In the past 30 years, ten winners had landed the Arkle Chase 12 months earlier. They have been: Remittance Man (won the Champion Chase in 1992), Klairon Davis, Moscow Flyer (2003), Azertyuiop (2004), Voy Por Ustedes (2007), Sizing Europe (2011), Sprinter Sacre (2013), Altior (2018) and Put The Kettle (2021). The SPs have included 10-1, 9-1 and 17-2, so it’s been a profitable route to follow. Remittance Man, Sprinter Sacre and Altior were all trained by Nicky Henderson, who seeks to complete the same double again with Shishkin, the hot favourite. Henderson’s only other Arkle winner to have run in the Champion Chase a year later was Travado, beaten a neck by Viking Flagship in 1994. The stats for Politolgue, who won two years ago, are poor. Only one horse older than 10 (Moscow Flyer) has won since 1978; just two of the past 23 winners failed to win last time out; and only two victors in the past three decades have not run in that calendar year. And since 1975, only Moscow Flyer and Sprinter Sacre have regained their crown.

No fewer than 14 of the 17 winners had run at the track earlier in the season – and only three winners had no previous experience of the track. Tiger Roll, the favourite, has not run at Cheltenham this season, but the three-time winner of the race did have a spin at the track last week.

Nine of the past 11 winners have had an official rating of between 138 and 147. When the weights are released on Tuesday, that group should probably be the first you focus on. Buddy Rich and Ciel De Neige are the ante-post favourites. The former can be expected to be in the 138-147 band, but the latter will be higher. In addition, older horses tend to struggle with only two winners since 1998 being ten or older.

Willie Mullins has had the Weatherbys Champion Bumper winner 11 times since it was first run in 1992 – plus plenty of near-misses. However, punters looking to cash in on his dominance should note the market often gets his runners wrong. None of his past six winners of the race have been his apparent “first string” with the sequence being extended last year when Sir Gerhard beat the odds-on Kilcruit. Before that, his previous five winners have been returned at 12-1 (Cousin Vinny), 16-1 (Champagne Fever), 25-1 (Briar Hill), 25-1 (Relegate) and 11-1 (Ferny Hollow). The shortest-priced Mullins runners in those races finished sixth, third eighth, fifth and second. So rather than just tick off his hot favourite, Facile Vega, make sure you carefully consider what else he runs.

Willie Mullins won four of the first six renewals but in the past four years he’s been out of luck with his 11 runners finishing 4P60U235836. Plenty of those have been well-fancied, although none were as short in the betting as Galopin Des Champs, his leading contender this year. Five of the past 11 winners had previously won at the Festival over hurdles: Galopin Des Champs and Bob Olinger tick those boxes.

Keep an eye on runners representing Gordon Elliott and David Pipe. Elliott has landed three of the past four renewals and remarkably, too, his stable’s other seven runners in the race have all been placed. The Bosses Oscar could not quite give him a fourth successive win 12 months ago but was second (ran in the name of Denise Foster). Elliott has seven entries to juggle this year, quoted between 9-1 and 20-1. Meanwhile, Pipe has landed the race twice since 2010 and has had five other horses placed in it. He has a big-priced trio to juggle in Brinkley, Panic Attack and Remastered.

Thirteen of the past 17 Ryanair Chase winners have boasted at least one win at Cheltenham beforehand. Allaho will seek to repeat his brilliant win of 12 months ago but there has been only one two-time winner of the race (Albertas Run 2010-11) since it was first run in 2005.

Plenty will scoff at the notion of Paisley Park regaining his crown three years after he last won the race but keep in mind that Crimson Embers overcame a four-year gap between his two victories in 1982 and 1986. Three of the past four winners ran in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle the previous year, including at 12-1 and 50-1, but it doesn’t look like any of last year’s runners in the race will be taking part.

The Shunter (140) became the eighth successive Paddy Power Plate winner to be rated in the 140s, and also the sixth novice or second-season chaser to do so. Venetia Williams has landed the race three times since 2007 with runners chalked up at 12-1, 33-1 and 50-1. She has five entered, including Espoir De Guye, who won at Warwick last month and is rated 145. However, he is now in his third season over fences.

Willie Mullins was responsible for the first five winners of the this race – all of them French breds who started their careers in France. Henry De Bromhead halted his domination last year but Mullins has several leading fancies, including an exciting French breds in __Dinoblue.

Keep in mind that eight of the past 11 winners have worn some form of headgear and that only one of the past 17 winners won on their most recent start. Just three winners since 1992 have been ten or older, which could trim down your form study because a dozen of the entries are double-figure digits. Increasingly, this is a race for younger legs with six of the past nine renewals won by seven-year-olds, including Mount Ida last year. Gordon Elliott, the trainer of that mare, is responsible for ante-post favourite Frontal Assault, a seven-year-old beaten last time out who usually wears cheekpieces.

Six of the past nine winners ran in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown in February, with Quilixios doing the double last year. That augurs well for Vauban, impressive winner of the latest renewal from Fil Dor and Il Etait Temps.

Seven of the past 15 winners have been trained by a member of the Mullins family (Willie x 5, Thomas x 1 and Tony x 1), while half of the past six renewals have been scooped by Dan Skelton. Only two winners this century have scored off a rating in the 150s, so beware supporting those near the head of the weights.

Vanillier became the seventh of the past eight winners to go off at double-figure odds last year. The SPs have been 50-1, 33-1 (twice), 16-1, 14-1 (twice)) and 11-1, so do not be worried if your fancy is overlooked in the market. Among the 17 winners of the race, Monkfish is the only one not to have won or been placed in a Graded novice hurdle en-route. He won at 5-1. Funny old game, isn’t it.

Al Boum Photo will become only the second winner to regain his crown, after Kauto Star, if he is successful in the race for a third time. The last triple winner was Best Mate (2002-04). Age is against ten-year-old Al Boum Photo, though, because the last horse older than nine to win was Cool Dawn in 1998. The last Gold Cup winner not to have won a Grade One race beforehand was the very same Cool Dawn. Royale Pagaille, injured when making little impact last year, will emulate him if taking the spoils.

Perhaps appropriately, 28 of the past 33 winners began their careers in point-to-points or hunter chases. Billaway, the ante-post favourite, started in points and like six of the past 12 winners has finished in the first five in a previous year’s renewal. He has been runner-up in the past two runnings and seemed to benefit from cheekpieces when winning last time (see notes about how headgear can be so helpful in long-distance chases at the Festival in the segments on the Ultima and Kim Muir).

It’s only the second running of the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase, so we have no stats or trends to play with. But it is worth recognising that 14 of the 21 races run at the Festival exclusively for mares in recent years have been won by French-breds. Among the leading fancies, Elimay was bred in France and was beaten only half a length in last year’s inaugural running.

David Pipe would naturally love to win the race that honours his father. But since the first running, in 2009, he has had 23 runners and got no closer than third. Big Eared Fran (third in 2009 at 7-2); Ashkazar (seventh in 2010 at 9-2) and Gevrey Chambertin (pulled up at 9-4) all went off favourite, while he has had four other runners beaten at single-figure odds, including Umbrigado two years ago. His sole entry this year is the progressive Kingofthewest.