The Royal Ascot winner with data like no other

It's Coming Home. It's Coming Home.

No, not the World Cup, you fool (although I'll be delighted to be proved wrong) but a Royal Ascot winner going on to win the Derby.

Fifty-six years have slipped by since a victor at the Royal Meeting has gone on to win the premier Classic but maybe, just maybe, Nola Soul is the horse to bridge the gap after his victory in the Chesham Stakes last week.

He’s got an awful long way to go, of course, before emulating Mill Reef, who won the Coventry in 1970 before landing the Derby the following year, but the early signs are encouraging, especially with regard to his imense stride pattern.

You would have got some peculiar looks if you mentioned the stride data of Horse A, B or C back in 1970.

In truth, you still do these days in places, but it’s slipping more into common usage.

There is a general rule of thumb: the quicker a horse strides, the more likely he/she is to be a sprinter. The slower a horse strides, the more likely he/she is to be a stayer.

Naturally, there can be exceptions to every rule, but it stands to reason that a horse whose revs are high is likely to be quicker than a horse whose revs are low.

And here’s the thing. Nola Soul had the speed to win a 7f race on fast ground at Royal Ascot and yet is an extremely low strider.

All his RaceiQ data points to him being well served by middle distances one day down the road. The dream for trainer Fozzy Stack and owner Craig Bernick will no doubt be that day being June 5, 2027, on the Surrey Downs.

Plenty were taken by Nola Soul’s imposing physique after he had galloped to glory in the last Thursday, but what went undetected was just how his mechanics achieved that success.

His maximum stride frequence was 2.21 strides per second, while his minimum was 2.05. His average was 2.12. Of the 14 runners, he was spinning his wheels considerably slower than anything else.

At the same time, he was devouring ground like no other. 

His minimum stride length was 7.74 metres, and his maximum was a whopping 8.25 metres. His average was 8.09. Nothing else got close to those figures.

The average stride of his rivals varied between 6.92 and 7.54 metres. Nola Soul had between 7 to 17 per cent more in his stride locker and made it pay in the closing stages under an exultant Seamie Heffernan.

RaceiQ has the data of 445 juveniles to have run at Royal Ascot in recent years and Nola Soul is the undisputed No 1 when it comes to his mighty stride.

That 8.25 metre stretch makes him No 1 in the charts for length, and he doubles up as his average stride is also top of the charts. Meanwhile, he's (easily) 445th when it comes to minimum stride frequency and peak stride frequency, but remember that's a good thing if you want staying to be your game.

Of course, stride data is only part of the equation, but Nola Soul has plenty more to recommend him. 

He got the job done at Ascot despite racing keenly early on and the next pair home were On Just Terms, a Joseph O’Brien-trained newcomer, and Aperoll, who had won on her Newbury debut and is well regarded by Richard Hannon. Fourth home was the heavily backed South Dakota, a representative of Aidan O’Brien.

Moreover, since the Chesham was upped in distance to 7f in 1996, there has been only one faster winer in Pinatubo, in 2019. He went on to land the National Stakes and Dewhurst before being an odds-on third in the 2000 Guineas.  

Nola Soul had previously also raced exuberantly when winning on his debut over 7f at Leopardstown last month. That day his average stride measured 7.49 metres and peaked at 8.12 metres. 

He kept on too stoutly for another Joseph O’Brien-trained youngster in King Of Cloughan, who also turned up at Ascot last week and won the Windsor Castle Stakes. The third home, Florida Bay (Aidan O’Brien), has since scored at Fairyhouse. 

And then there is Nola Soul’s breeding. 

He is a son of Justify, the sire of brilliant 2023 Derby winner City Of Troy plus such as Ruling Court, winner of the 2000 Guineas in 2025, and Ramatuelle, who came close to landing the 1000 Guineas in 2024. Others flying the flag for him include Scandinavia, winner of last week’s epic Gold Cup. 

City Of Troy, like Nola Soul, was a slow, long strider. 

When he won at Epsom, on easy ground, his stride peaked at 7.98 metres, which was higher than any of the opposition. On faster ground, in the Juddmonte International at York, he had stretched out to 8.13 metres. 

But Nola Soul already strides slower and longer than him and is only going to get stronger as he fills into his frame. 

His dam, Sing Me Home, was a lightly-raced half-sister to useful 1½m winner Favorite Memory, with her sire being champion sprinter Muhaarar, a surprising influence for stamina himself. 

One caveat has been his behaviour at the start and eagerness to get on with the job.

sHe was restless at the stalls on his debut and at Ascot, but hopefully that is just some immaturity and will not hold him back. 

“Nola Soul is a lovely horse. We have a high opinion of him,” Stack said last week. “Seamie has always loved him. He is a big strong galloper who can go fast for a long time. If he came out of the debut run alright, it was always the plan to come here. This is the place everyone wants to be. 

“We were very hopeful of a good run. You just hope they show up on the day, whether you win, finish third, fourth . . . whatever. He is a January foal. I would say he would have no problem getting a mile and a quarter in time. I would hope he might turn up in a good race at the end of the year.” 

Heffernan added: “The beauty is there's more to come. I have plenty of experience with the Justifys, so I know exactly what they like and what they don't like. A lot of them have an engine and, once it's geared the right way, they're good.

“He always showed plenty. He is by the right stallion, big stride, big heart. When they give you the class feel from day one and they keep backing it up every week when you sit on them, it is usually a good sign. 

“Big thumbs up to the owner [Craig Bernick] – I think he picked him out himself, and he sent him to Fozzy with a lot of confidence. We just kept agreeing that he is above where he should be. It is brilliant.”

The majority of Derby winners do not make their debuts until after Royal Ascot but, since Mill Reef in 1970, there have been three other winners of the Derby who ran at the Royal Meeting: Generous (second in the 1998 Coventry); Dr Devious (second in the 1999 Coventry); and Masar (third in the 2018 Chesham). 

Nola Soul is quoted at 33-1 for the 2000 Guineas and, if he stays on the right path, perhaps that could loom into view for him. 

But the data points tantalisingly to the Derby being the race where he can use that long, raking stride to maximum advantage. Nearly six decades of hurt may be coming to an end.