Lydia Hislop’s Road To Cheltenham: Champion Hurdle has Air of uncertainty

Newly-crowned HWPA Broadcaster Of The Year, Lydia Hislop, reflects on an eventful week in the third instalment of her Road To Cheltenham series.

Here follows a short address from the President of the Road To Cheltenham: Look, I’ve won a lot of races for a lot of people but I don’t want to complicate it. I’ll stay out of the decision. You know I’m a fan of the Ryanair – I called it. Many of you were there. I recognise that many of you were there and asked me whether or not Altior would win the King George and I said no and everybody smiled and laughed. And I was right.

But I stay out of it. I think Nicky is very capable and I think he’ll do a very good job. Champion Chase? I know nothing about it. It’s going to be a very important decision for this great trainer. But I have no thoughts on it, as I’ve laid out extensively below.

After the jolt of Buveur D’Air’s narrow defeat when chasing his third Fighting Fifth Hurdle success came the aftershock of news of the injury that he had sustained in the process. Trainer Nicky Henderson announced that post-race examination had located a piece of wood that had gone through the coronet band of the horse’s right foreleg and into his hoof.

The following day, an update via the trainer’s Unibet blog revealed the dual Champion Hurdle winner had undergone surgery to remove the piece of wood – clearly visible during the Newcastle race – but did not posit any timeframe for his likely comeback.

“The wall of the hoof had to be opened up,” Henderson said in his statement. “As a consequence, we have to wait for the foot to grow back together again which could take some time to heal.

“The important thing is that he hasn’t damaged his coffin joint which could have very nearly been career ending or worse, so that is a huge relief. We have a lot to be thankful for as things could have been much, much worse.

“Buveur D’Air’s welfare and health are of paramount importance and I simply cannot speculate as to how long it will take him to get back and if/when his next race will be. This is an injury which will not be resolved overnight, so we will assess the situation on a day-to-day basis.

“Thankfully he is in no pain as it’s very much like a human nail... (where) he now has a great big hole in his foot, which needs to bind together and heal.”

Consequently, Buveur D’Air has been removed from most ante-post lists for the Champion Hurdle, having been the de facto favourite ahead of his Newcastle assignment. He was to head to the Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle next.

At one point subsequently, it had seemed that Fusil Raffles would end up the only Seven Barrows representative at Kempton but the purchase of last year’s entertaining winner, Verdana Blue, for Michael Tabor at Tattersalls’ December Sale on Tuesday has seen that mare return home with the same target in mind.

Stable companion and last term’s Triumph Hurdle winner, Pentland Hills, remains on course for the Unibet International Hurdle on Saturday week and Henderson has also recalibrated on the mare Epatante, an ultimately impressive winner of the Ladbrokes-sponsored Intermediate Hurdle (formerly Gerry Feilden) at Newbury last Saturday.

Immediately after that success, he clearly thought I’d taken leave of my senses when suggesting he might consider entering her in the Champion Hurdle come January. At the time, I wondered whether that revealed how distinctly superior Buveur D’Air is in his mind or whether, once he and owner JP McManus’s team had crunched the numbers, they’d come around to the idea. It proved to be the latter.

“We need to work out where we go with Epatante,” Henderson subsequently told the Racing Post. “We were quite impressed with her on Saturday. With Buveur D’Air not there, we could still have two in the Christmas Hurdle and the International would probably be too soon – and we have Pentland Hills for that – so we need to work out where we go with her.”

Epatante initiated a Henderson-trained 1-2-3 at Newbury, scampering away from French Crusader by six lengths from a mark of 137. Clearly, she’s got some improvement to find to become a credible Champion Hurdle candidate but the entries have to be made in January and the extra half-mile of the Mares’ Hurdle doesn’t appear suitable.

She’ll also need to tighten up her jumping – getting in too close to the second last and bunny-hopping over was the only cause of her needing to be vigorously shaken up, but she recovered to lead narrowly at the last and then responded decisively to three reminders on the run to the line. Jockey Aidan Coleman wasn’t inclined to believe Cheltenham might be an issue for her, even though she was only ninth when sent off favourite for last term’s Dawn Run.

To return to Newcastle and wrap up the Fighting Fifth, enterprising tactics and an error from Buveur D’Air at the second last – perhaps the scene of his injury – saw Cornerstone Lad triumph by a short-head. It wasn’t an outrageous fluke, however.

After none of the field seemed inclined to start, Henry Brooke galvanised the eventual narrow winner to a clear advantage from the outset and set a strong-to-honest pace. The pair set sail determinedly for home in the straight but were always being steadily reeled in.

Barry Geraghty later testified that he thought as they jumped the last that he’d win on Buveur D’Air but said he “just struggled in the last 100 yards”. We now know why. The runner-up had also led the chase in the straight, towing a fleetingly menacing Lady Buttons (in first-time cheekpieces) along until she started to paddle before a chance-ending blunder at the last. Characteristically, a patiently ridden Silver Streak picked up the pieces for third.

Cornerstone Lad lined up at Newcastle in the form of his life, having won a Wetherby handicap off a mark of 142 just a fortnight earlier. He’s also well suited by testing ground. Regardless of what happened to Buveur D’Air, this was another career best and trainer Micky Hammond was entitled to mention Haydock’s Champion Hurdle Trial – probably on similarly heavy ground – as a suitable target.

“The ground has been heavy all week, which we know he copes with,” Hammond said afterwards. “He’s got a rotivating action and is a bit ungainly at times, but he has a big heart.”

Recent Punchestown winner Saldier was a notable absentee when entries were revealed for Leopardstown’s Matheson Hurdle over Christmas. “He just didn’t come out of the Morgiana as I would have liked,” trainer Willie Mullins said. “Hopefully we’ll have him back in action in the new year.”

With doubt cast over Buveur D’Air’s participation – albeit the division looked pretty open even before then – two of last Sunday’s performers have been mooted as potential Champion Hurdle candidates: the mare Honeysuckle and novice Envoi Allen.

The former certainly doesn’t appear to lack speed and connections do at least plan to enter her next month, while maintaining that the Mares’ Hurdle is the overwhelming priority. The latter will be a six-year-old next season and is currently a thoroughly convincing favourite for the Supreme – see more on him in the novice hurdlers’ section below.

“This isn’t a trial,” Aidan Coleman reported thinking on Paisley Park, as the Grade Two Long Distance Hurdle started to develop at Newbury last Friday. “This is as good a race as he’s run in.” I wouldn’t go that far – it was a steadily-run race against an 11-year-old main rival in Thistlecrack, who was prepping for the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase – but it was very far from a one-sided nod-through either.

The Worlds End set an unchallenged pace – tactics he’d signalled he enjoyed when winning over fences at Cheltenham last December and also employed on his best performance since, his seasonal debut success in Wetherby’s Grade Two West Yorkshire Hurdle. Gathered in shortly after being challenged on both flanks two out and beaten seven lengths, he looked to have run at least as well again.

Soon after that penultimate obstacle Paisley Park, last season’s Stayers' Hurdle winner, and Thistlecrack, who had simply run away with that same championship race three years earlier before switching to fences, took over. Thereafter, the former always just about held the advantage but there was a moment around the furlong marker when you wondered ... but there was a length between them at the line.

There was no sign of Paisley Park’s trademark flat spot – nudging was all that Coleman needed to keep him in contention and a few shakes of the reins to get him to challenge. When the pair claimed The Worlds End, Coleman acknowledged “he did prick his ears a little bit in front – he doesn’t do loads and loads in front, as we know”.

Paisley Park could be seen flicking those lugs around as he continued repelling Thistlecrack – a sign of having more up his sleeve. Given he was conceding 6lb to the runner-up on their mutual first runs of the season, to the relief of trainer Emma Lavelle this was a substantial opening bid on which to base a defence of his title.

Owner Andrew Gemmell, who flawlessly mapped out Paisley Park’s campaign last term, again cited Ascot’s Grade One Marsh Hurdle (Long Walk Hurdle) as the next target, followed by double Cheltenham – the Cleeve and the Stayers’ Hurdles, in which his horse recorded his career-high performances to date – but this time culminating at the Punchestown Festival. Why not? He sets the standard.

Were Thistlecrack to make little impact in the King George – a far-from-unlikely scenario, given the depth of that contest as things stand – the Stayers’ Hurdle might well end up his Festival target. So, 25-1 with William Hill looks rather overblown, given the odds and sods they and other bookmakers rate as shorter-priced prospects.

Back in fourth, former dual Long Distance Hurdle winner Unowhatimeanharry regressed on his debut second to The Worlds End at Wetherby. Having chased the leader in a good position, he was already struggling to hold his position on the home turn. His season is probably framed around Punchestown at the end, so Paisley Park’s revised campaign is not good news.

In Ireland, two days later, Bacardys was on duty again in the Grade One Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse, backed up by stablemate and dual Festival winner Penhill but without fellow Mullins-trained mare Benie Des Dieux. Yet a different mare foiled them both: the pacier Honeysuckle, who’s discussed in the Mares’ Hurdle section.

Bacardys jumped better than can be the case – even his habitual guess-up-at-the-last was mild – but he was outspeeded by the winner approaching the home turn in a race that probably wasn’t run to suit. He was beaten nine lengths by a smart rival wielding a 7lb mares’ allowance, so this was a perfectly good effort.

A full season of hurdling will probably be of benefit come Stayers’ Hurdle time, rather than having to revert to the smaller obstacles after falling in that Leopardstown beginners’ chase as he has for the last two seasons. However, the world has moved on and Paisley Park sets a higher standard for this division these days.

That means 2018 winner Penhill must improve to match him. Having only reached the racecourse twice that season, he was ruled out of defending his crown a fortnight beforehand when he pulled out sore after working the preceding day.

Ahead of last Sunday’s comeback, Mullins reported that “his training has gone well and we're starting him off earlier this season” but warned it was “a tough assignment and the trip will probably be on the short side”.

In the event, Penhill was keen from the outset held up in last behind a steady pace set by clumsy stable companion Killultagh Vic. He was chased along on landing three out and left behind as the two mares, Honeysuckle and Apple’s Jade, quickened on approaching the home turn.

He was already spent entering the straight, hanging left and losing ground under a sympathetic ride, crossing the line 34 lengths adrift of the winner. Obviously, it was a long way off his best.

The eclipse of Apple’s Jade appears total now that there is a new luminary on the mares’ scene. Honeysuckle was well-backed to depose both the three-times Hatton’s Grace Hurdle heroine and a host of decent staying geldings in that Grade One event’s latest renewal at Fairyhouse last Sunday – and delivered on that expectation with little fuss.

She now ranges from close second favourite to outright market leader for the Mares’ Hurdle with last year’s final-obstacle faller and 2018 winner, Benie Des Dieux.

Too right: that nine-length defeat of Bacardys already puts Honeysuckle across the moat and scaling the ramparts of that mare’s defences, albeit Benie Des Dieux had only kept company with mares under Mullins until her latest French Champion hurdle success – the point being we don’t quite yet know the summit of either mare’s ability in Anglo-Irish hurdling terms.

Benie Des Dieux has been comfortably the superior of any mare she’s yet encountered for her current yard – including the lesser variety of Apple’s Jade whom she beat at both the Cheltenham and Punchestown Festivals two seasons ago.

When she won the Grande Course de Haies d'Auteuil in May, it was her first attempt beyond 2m4f and thus raised the possibility of a tilt at the Stayers’ Hurdle. Expect an entry at the very least next month but, ultimately, we know Mullins will go for whichever target looks easiest come Festival time – and that could include the Ryanair, given that mare’s chasing experience.

Right now, Benie Des Dieux must recover from the pulled muscle Mullins reported in his Racing Post column had caused her to miss the Hatton’s Grace. She reportedly remains on course for Leopardstown’s Christmas Hurdle over three miles on December 28.

In Benie’s absence but nonetheless outspeeding Bacardys, the hitherto-unbeaten Honeysuckle not surprisingly recorded a career best. Going well on the outer in mid-division three out, she moved on along with Apple’s Jade on the home turn and soon had that mare in trouble. In front, she went slightly to her left two out and, steadied to be careful by Rachael Blackmore at the last, made her only mistake of the round. It was a minor blemish and she finished well on top.

Afterwards, trainer Henry de Bromhead was sanguine about going up or down in trip, referring to her entries over two and three miles over Christmas. But Peter Molony, racing manager to owner Kenny Alexander, has since suggested the mare will be given a short break and return over two miles in February, either at the Dublin Racing Festival or the Red Mills Hurdle at Gowran Park.

“We will sit down again in the next few days, but that's been the original plan and I don't think we'll deviate,” Molony said, who plans to enter Honeysuckle in both the Champion and Mares’ Hurdles.

“But I don't want anyone to be under any illusions,” he told the Racing Post. “We're huge fans of the mares' programme, we've been trying to encourage it for years, it's there now and this has been the plan forever for her. I'd say it's 95 per cent she'll go for the Mares' Hurdle. Kenny's whole idea is to build a nice breeding operation tilted towards racemares and broodmares, which is why he'd love to win the Mares' Hurdle.”

Honeysuckle did look very much at home over this intermediate trip. She is yet to race left-handed under Rules but did win her Point at (I think I am right in saying) left-handed Dromahane. She missed Cheltenham last term because of a setback the preceding week.

Apple’s Jade might as well have omitted the Festival from her tour dates last – or indeed most – seasons. She managed to win the 2017 Mares’ Hurdle – perhaps her best performance at the track – but with an effort 7lb below her best for that season and more than a stone below the form she went on to show at Leopardstown and Fairyhouse the following campaign.

Although the spirit was willing at Aintree in April, her form has lagged behind since she was seen off by halfway in the Champion Hurdle. This effort, 13 lengths adrift of Honeysuckle in third, was if anything a regression from her distant seasonal debut second to Bacardys. It was troubling how, having jumped markedly right on the final circuit, she was quickly beaten on the home turn.

I had half-expected Michael O’Leary to retire his favourite mare, a ten-times Grade One winner, if she was listless again on Sunday in a race in which she was seeking to better the Hatton’s Grace records of fellow thrice winners, Limestone Lad and Solerina. But that didn’t prove the case.

“Jack said that from flag-fall she was never really going like she can,” trainer Gordon Elliott reported afterwards. “She wasn’t herself but she is not finished yet and you wouldn’t rule out jumping a fence at some stage. She is only seven years of age and has been third in a Grade One – she wasn’t last. She kept galloping from the second-last to the line, which was encouraging.”

Retiring Apple’s Jade because she isn’t as good as she once was would clearly have been a sentimental decision. Objectively, as Elliott pointed out, she is still capable of a high level of form and provided she is happy in her metier – as she presumably is, according to those who know her best – there’s no other reason to draw stumps.

Elliott has since cited Leopardstown’s Christmas Hurdle, raising a potential clash with Benie Des Dieux in a race Apple’s Jade won last year. More arrestingly, he’s also mooted headgear. "I haven’t given up on her yet,” he said. “We'll probably try her in headgear for the first time and see how things go. She hasn't fired so far this season but she owes us nothing."

The result of the Betfair Tingle Creek Chase on Saturday could determine the Festival destination of Altior, according to the latest thoughts of trainer Nicky Henderson. “They’re the best around apart from him, so we’ll see how they get on and then decide which way we’re going to go,” Henderson said, still intimating that the King George could yet be an option for his dual Champion Chase winner – albeit with increasing implausibility.

The upstart Defi Du Seuil is set to take on celebrated chaser Un De Sceaux in Sandown’s Grade One showpiece, with Politologue and Sceau Royal thrown in for good measure. There’s Janika, too – Altior’s stablemate, match-fit from his Haldon Gold Cup success – who provides Henderson with a live measure of the current state of play.

Further information will be provided at Cork the following day, when a clutch of bubbling-under two-mile chasers also take each other on in the Grade Two Hilly Way, with Champion Chase second favourite Chacun Pour Soi a key absentee.

So, it’s clear now that Altior’s early-season clash with Cyrname proved a miscalculation for Henderson’s Seven Barrows team – perhaps they’d had enough of experts who rated the latter 1lb higher? After watching Altior get dragged around Ascot, out-jumped and outpaced, his 19-race unbeaten run at an end, sticking to the King George plan – the projected fulcrum of their season – has become increasingly unattractive.

Cyrname was fitter, quicker and defter at his fences than Altior and it is the victor who heads to a hot-looking edition of the King George with the wind in his sails. The clash may have taken more out of Altior than Henderson expected or, quite simply, he may not wish to take on a rival who currently appears superior in most departments – stamina the doubt – when they met.

That leaves reverting to two miles for the Grade Two Desert Orchid Chase as a likely Christmas alternative – a soft option in the context of this conversation. Yet Henderson acknowledged at the end of last season – after Altior had struggled, relatively speaking, to quell Politologue and Sceau Royal at Cheltenham and Sandown – that he “is very good at telling you things and he told us one thing today and that was, 'Go further', so that's what we'll do”.

So, Henderson is in something of a cleft stick and having to consider a factor that hasn’t been relevant to Altior for almost the past three seasons: namely, the strength of the opposition. It’s a tacit admission of vulnerability but in practical terms essentially means that if anything bar Defi Du Seuil wins the Tingle Creek chasing a third Queen Mum immediately becomes the target. And Defi would probably have to win impressively to deter them.

Yet there’s still a problem, certainly at 3-1. Altior hasn’t run like the imperious two-mile champion that he was for three starts now. However, as discussed with Ruby Walsh on last week’s Road To Cheltenham show, he becomes a more viable proposition with some headgear applied, probably cheekpieces, to return the pep to his stride.

Henderson’s potential – go on, say it: likely – campaign pivot would appear to spell curtains for my speculative 14-1 about Altior for the Ryanair. I suspect it’s not dead yet, however – albeit the price might prove too skinny.

It depends on the level of opposition that faces Altior if he reverts to two miles – they’ll be keener than a year ago to take him on – and on the effect of those as-yet-unmentioned cheekpieces – slapped on for the Game Spirit after too much frantic scrambling in the Desert Orchid? I’m cooked if they save them for the Champion Chase. (Yes, I know this is a wholly speculative tangent. That’s how we roll here. That’s the fun of it.)

Meanwhile, back in reality, if Defi Du Seuil doesn’t jump quickly enough to be the boss two-miler – as Ruby Walsh has suggested in this parish – and thereby master a soon-to-be-veteran Un De Sceaux or even the not-to-be-underestimated Politologue and Sceau Royal, then the Ryanair becomes his plan.

Min is slated to return in the Grade One John Durkan at Punchestown this Sunday and, on paper at least, he faces a smattering of potential Queen Mum, Ryanair and Gold Cup types. He was ragingly impressive over 2m4f under positive tactics at Aintree but things fell apart behind him, most notably with Politologue breaking a blood vessel.

Regular readers will note that by discussing Min in this section, I’ve finally given up on him being a credible Champion Chase threat, even if on both occasions he tried the race I was left dissatisfied with how things had panned out. But I’m invoking a rule – let’s call it the Djakadam rule – that if you’re still working the same argument after two years, it’s probably not quite good enough.

An interesting alternative flagbearer to Min at Punchestown for trainer Willie Mullins would be Real Steel, sixth in the JLT last term and winner of a Grade Two at Down Royal on his return. It’s worth noting that Mullins has increasingly come round to jockey Paul Townend’s view – backed up by actual form – that this horse is better racing right-handed.

In terms of actual action, it’s worth mentioning Kalashnikov, winner of the Grade One Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree in April, having been in effect brought down – strictly, hampered and unseating Jack Quinlan – when in a conspicuously good rhythm in the Arkle on his previous start.

He’d started the season with second to Forest Bihan – who’s now injured and reportedly sidelined for the season – in an Old Roan Chase frustratingly short on actual fences but bettered that in no uncertain terms when nutted on the line by Oldgrangewood at Newbury last Friday.

It was a 2m4f handicap chase conducted at a searching pace and, quite quickly, a number of the field couldn’t live with it. From the third last, the honours appeared to boil down to Kalashnikov versus Glen Forsa, both of whom had contested the Arkle, but with the former conceding 5lb to the latter.

Appearing to hold the marginal upper hand from two out, Kalashnikov definitively mastered that appreciable rival after the last... only to find the scale of his effort had made him susceptible to a lighter-weighted rival who simply hadn’t been able to live with the early fractions. Oldgrangewood picked up the pieces of this race – every single one of them – by a nose.

But Kalashnikov enhanced his reputation and again upgraded his form in defeat. His next stop could be the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup later this month, where further progress would see him inching steadily into the Ryanair picture – or even Champion Chase.

The most significant happening in this division was news last Wednesday that Horse Racing Ireland had cleared second favourite Kemboy to run under new ownership terms this season, just in time for him to be entered in the Grade One Savills Chase staged at Leopardstown this month.

All 28 horses hitherto owned by the Supreme Horse Racing Club had been blocked from being entered or declared for any race amid long-running accusations of financial irregularities by those who ran the syndication company.

But HRI have accepted new registrations for seven of those horses, including Kemboy, who will each race in their own new colours and unique syndicates. The British Horseracing Authority has also confirmed that it will reciprocate HRI’s arrangements.

There was also news on Monday from Nicky Henderson that Santini has already returned to cantering after having his soft palate cauterised and that Might Bite, the gallant 2018 Gold Cup runner-up who lost his way and perhaps his mind last season, will return at either Aintree or Huntingdon this weekend.

On the track, despite sporting first-time blinkers Elegant Escape wasn’t quick enough over the first few fences to do anything but drop back towards the rear of the Ladbrokes Trophy field. That’s a race in which the pace tends to hold up and a patient run style is a disadvantage and so it proved.

Disputing tenth at the fourth last, last year’s runner-up stayed on relentlessly in the straight to take third and finish just two lengths behind De Rasher Counter, to whom he was conceding 16lb. Next stop is likely to be the Coral Welsh Grand National, which he won from a 9lb lower mark last season. He couldn’t hold his position when stuff got serious in the 2019 Gold Cup, fading into sixth.

The previous day at Newbury saw 2016 King George hero Thistlecrack make a hearty return to action over hurdles, pushing Stayers’ Hurdle champion, Paisley Park, to pull out some stops on advantageous weight terms. At the age of 11, however, he is unlikely to better last year’s second at Kempton in what at this stage appears a much stronger renewal.

You can argue the potential outcome of Sunday’s Grade One Drinmore Novice Chase in two ways but I’m inclined to feel both the wide-margin winner, Fakir D’Oudairies, and the thwarted Samcro, who might have triumphed had he not decanted his rider at the second last, both emerged with different credits – yet also with different undermining doubts.

Many observers are confident that Samcro would have won, given how powerfully he was travelling under a confident-looking Jack Kennedy approaching two out and given how Mark Walsh had already started to nudge along Fakir D’Oudairies entering the home turn.

On balance, I’m inclined to agree with this interpretation but I would note that the winner found quite a bit approaching the last at Fairyhouse whereas my lingering recollection of Samcro in victory is the 2018 Neptune, when he sauntered into the lead on the home turn and yet an under-pressure Black Op managed to graft his way to a mere length adrift until fluffing the last. In short, I think Samcro finds less off the bridle than he promises while on it.

He had been comprehensively out-jumped here, the smaller-scale Fakir D’Oudairies gaining ground at every flight, and the fence that claimed him was not the first to have troubled him – he was low at the third and half-breasted the eighth.

The unseat itself caused Kennedy to punch the ground with frustration, not surprisingly. Samcro had just cruised upsides the long-time leader with imperious ease when he clipped the top and landed steeply, catapulting his rider out of the saddle. Dare I say it was a little passive on Samcro’s part? Whatever, his departure could hardly be called surprising; there’s something unconvincing about his jumping.

There’s something fragile about Samcro, too. You’ll recall he contracted a heavy lung infection last season that saw him sidelined from the close of 2018 until his chase debut at Down Royal at the start of this season. It’s since become apparent that this was clearly not a one-off but an ongoing vulnerability, requiring management.

At Down Royal, trainer Gordon Elliott said: “We have changed a few things with him this season; he's been scoping very well.” In an interview with Elliott for The42.ie, writer Johnny Ward described Samcro’s new living accommodation: “a new barn which has, shall we say, a sizeable back garden. He can stay in his stable or simply walk out the back to get into the fresh air whenever he wants.”

In the Racing TV On The Wire podcast with Ward, Elliott mentioned that Samcro is “on the nebuliser the whole time” – a comment picked up by Tony Keenan (@RacingTrends) on Twitter and which sparked an interesting chain of replies, as you can see by clicking here.

Trainer Daniel Kubler observed that a nebuliser is used for “managing airways. Can help with inflamed and/or infected airways. Some horses more susceptible to these things than others”. James Millman commented that his family’s operation used it on “a chronic bleeder”, referring to horses prone to bursting blood vessels. So, clearly, Samcro needs TLC.

All this makes me doubt him as any sort of Festival proposition from a punting perspective, despite his palpably high-quality engine - the “lot of sparkle” Elliott rightly observed in him on Sunday. Samcro’s recent profile suggests non-runner-no-bet rather than plain ante-post terms are advisable but, even with that safety-net, what would you back him for?

His jumping is too hesitant to win an Arkle, I suspect he lacks the grit for the RSA and, while the intermediate option is rightly the contest for which he’s most favoured by the bookies, can’t you just see him having to play catch-up from the outset when he slows into that rapid first fence? Fast-forward your mind: how would you be feeling about 6-1 then? No, thanks.

Given his aggressive, low-jumping style Fakir D’Oudairies will surely be displayed to best effect in a fast-paced two-mile assignment such as the Maghull Novices’ Chase at Aintree. As Walsh said: “Jumping quick at two miles is his forte.”

But you wouldn’t dismiss him stretching out over 2m4f for the Manifesto at the same meeting, given that track richly rewards such dynamism.

Yet the fact that a staccato-jumping rival was able to cruise upsides him at the second last here – even if that cruiser was the sainted Samcro – makes me doubt Fakir D’Oudairies’s class for an Arkle, especially given he’ll have lost all of the four-year-olds' allowance he currently enjoys if he were to line up in Britain in March.

The same weight concern also applies to the revelation of the Ladbrokes Winter Carnival at Newbury, a certain Fanion D’Estruval who had Friday’s novice handicap chase all sewn up – bar accidents – from a mark of 137 by the fourth last with some nimble jumping and a generous cruising speed.

He’d been the talk of many a learned preview of the current season but nobody seemed sure where this highly promising young chaser had ended up after leaving Guillaume Macaire. His charming owner David Wilson, for whom this was his first-ever runner, recounted how he’d come to purchase the horse in the winner’s enclosure afterwards. .)

Wilson’s trainer Venetia Williams knew exactly what she’d got, natch, admitting that Fanion D’Estruval had been as “wildly impressive” at home as he was in the race. When I pitched him as a potential Arkle horse, arrestingly for Williams, she didn’t try to play down the idea. “Could be,” she said, with a shrug. I’d suggest he is, then.

Later that same day, the much-vaunted Champ was in and out of trouble of his own and others’ making but still managed to win Newbury’s 2m4f Grade Two novices’ chase. First, the loose horse crossed him at the first of the ditches, robbing him of landing space and sending him down onto his nose. Barry Geraghty did well to stay on board and lose little position.

But he jumped out to his left for most of the round, was untidy at the last in the back straight and then, in Geraghty’s own words, “took a chance” with the third last and looked beaten. Given two reminders approaching the last, Champ jumped it well and ran on strongly under pressure to wear down Black Op... only to almost take the wrong course and head towards the water jump rather than the finishing line.

At the last minute, Geraghty realised he was heading the wrong side of the rail, took evasive action and his mount was nimble enough to respond and yet still pull further clear.

“He was leaning a bit left on the run-in and had a look to go around again, I suppose,” Geraghty said afterwards. Champ was indeed jumping and lugging left, particularly in the straight, but in the drive to the line his rider also clearly believed he was adhering to a better trajectory than he actually was. Happily, he spotted his error in time and his mount reacted genuinely.

Nicky Henderson stressed afterwards that such races are all about “education, education, education” and that Champ “does want further” but can “get away with” running over shorter trips because he’s “got a gear, a very high cruising speed”. The horse was also entered in the three-mile Grade Two the following day but ran on Friday so that Geraghty could ride both him and Buveur D’Air at Newcastle.

Cheltenham’s Grade Two Dipper Chase over 2m4f on New Year’s Day remains Champ’s next assignment, according to Henderson, and “whether he even needs another run after that depends on what happens there”. “Therefore, he’s quite likely not to go three miles before Cheltenham,” he concluded, implying that the RSA is the ultimate target.

At least two other trainers would have been encouraged by what they saw in that same race. Runner-up Black Op has now got the hang of fences after a tentative start over the larger obstacles last season that caused trainer Tom George to switch him back to hurdles.

Jonathan Burke got him in a good rhythm here and he jumped well bar for getting in too close and almost plunging through the last. He kept on well but was outpaced by Champ, shaping as though he needs to move up in trip sooner rather than later.

Having accounted for recent Ascot winner Pym at Huntingdon earlier this month, third-placed Deyrann De Carjac further enhanced his reputation by challenging boldly in the straight only to lunge at two out and also fluff the last. This trip might currently be his maximum.

Mont Des Avaloirs was having his second chase start, after once trying fences at the start of last season, and returning from an operation to correct his breathing. He shaped better than the bare form and can prove interesting in handicaps.

The following day at Newbury, Danny Whizzbang surprised trainer Paul Nicholls by winning the Grade Two John Francome Novices’ Chase over three miles on his chase debut. The original plan had been to kick off over fences at Exeter the previous weekend but that fixture was abandoned. Plan B was an honourable third here and then a beginners’ chase over Christmas. Scrap that.

Danny Whizzbang had won a Point and his Rules debut in a Hereford maiden hurdle last year – two form-lines his trainer described as “ordinary” – but was considered “big and weak” and so given “lots of time”. He returned in a novices’ hurdle at Exeter in March and won again, so he was unbeaten over the smaller obstacles but still relatively inexperienced compared to his two rivals.

Jockey Harry Cobden later described how it began to dawn on him that his mount was good enough to win this three-runner affair, with odds-on favourite Reserve Tank barely meeting a fence correctly and Ardlethan looking laboured in first-time cheekpieces.

“He’s a bit like Denman, in that he shows you nothing at home,” Nicholls said, burdening another novice chaser with a lofty comparison. “All he can do is get better and it now looks like he might be a RSA horse.”

Perhaps Reserve Tank hated making his own running but he jumped markedly left – maybe in live tribute to Yorkhill, who would later contest the Ladbrokes Trophy? – at almost every fence. Afterwards, jockey Robbie Power suggested the horse would have “a break” so perhaps there was an issue. Whatever, this was deeply disappointing from a dual Grade One-winning novice hurdler, who was struggling from the outset and long before the step up in trip became relevant.

Dan Skelton put cheekpieces on Ardlethan after concluding his concentration had been lacking at times behind Sam Spinner at Wetherby last time out and to make him a bit swifter at his obstacles. It didn’t do the trick. This is hard form to quantify, therefore. Probably best just to say the winner is promising.

Keep it to yourself but Envoi Allen might be a bit special. He comfortably accounted for a field of accomplished or up-and-coming fellow novices with conspicuous professionalism at Fairyhouse last Sunday, winning the Grade One Baroneracing.com Royal Bond by a comfortable length and a half.

His jumping is a weapon: when he’s on a good stride, he gains ground with a skimming technique and when he’s wrong – as he was when stuttering into the last – he’s clever, as jockey Davy Russell later testified when speaking to Gary O’Brien on Racing TV.

“It was easier to spot strides on him... going that bit quicker,” he said. “I was [going to be] really long at the last. It would have been a silly thing to do, to go and fire him at the last – I didn’t need it – and I ended up underneath it. As much as he made a mistake, it wasn’t a bad thing to see him just flick out through it. So that was pleasing.”

He didn’t get an easy lead; he was executing his craft with recent Naas maiden hurdle winner Embittered upsides until approaching the second last and then had stablemate Abacadabras giving relatively determined chase approaching the last. (An aside: is the runner-up’s name one of those irritating racing misspellings we’re meant to pretend was intentional? It’s not even managing to reference everyone’s favourite pun-based kebab chain. Disappointing.)

But [puts on tolerant face] Abacadabras was hanging right, had come from further back than the other principals and almost tripped over the last himself so, after a brief spurt, he was a spent force halfway up the run-in. This dual winning hurdler can be marked up a shade for his positioning, as can third-placed Darver Star who was having his eleventh hurdle start but got shuffled back and was forced to switch around horses, crucially losing a better pitch, approaching two out.

There was talk after the race of Envoi Allen being moved up in trip but he only holds two-mile entries to date and it would be a shame to parade a technique that efficient in anything other than the Sky Bet Supreme, for which he is now best-priced as 4-1 favourite. That’s not daft.

He compares well with fellow five-year-old novice Janadil, who won the handicap hurdle over the same course and distance later on the card with 10lb less to carry and an overall time nearly two seconds slower. It should also be noted that the handicap field jumped one fewer obstacle than either the juveniles or the novices.

Broadly speaking, as you can see from the sectionals below, the leaders went too quickly over the first four hurdles in Janadil’s race and were slower than both the three-year-old Cerebus, carrying 10st 9lb, [see juvenile section] and Envoi Allen from that point onwards.

Cerebus set self-benefitting fractions whereas Envoi Allen helped set an efficient but honest pace.

Janidil was winning for the third time over hurdles since joining Willie Mullins, the last two times in handicap company. He’d finished the beaten favourite when second behind Notebook on his sole start for the yard last term and had previously been in a maiden in three starts over hurdles for Guy Cherel in France, so he retains novice status this season.

He’s now learning fast – a 10lb rise couldn’t contain him on Sunday. Mark Walsh had him prominently positioned and the pair moved easily into the lead two out, which he jumped well albeit he was bumped on landing. He then took the last smoothly, as the more experienced Buildmeupbuttercup’s fleeting challenge faltered.

Janidil’s hurdling is sound, if not quite yet slick, and he appears straightforward positionally speaking - two assets in novice company. He definitely merits a shot at graded level. His pedigree and the manner of this victory suggest going up in trip is another horizon to explore.

Let’s return to Newbury, where – as can often be the case – the novice events were something of a Henderson benefit. Son Of Camas won the opening NH novices’ hurdle, jumping soundly if sometimes to his right, less than a fortnight after winning his bumper at the same track.

The following day, stablemate Floressa showcased a fleet technique when comprehensively turning around her earlier form with Silver Forever on 3lb better terms. Connections plan to work backwards from the Dawn Run, for which she’s a reasonable 10-1 shot. If it weren’t for that meddling Mullins and his seeming thousands of top-class mares...

Oliver Sherwood got a look-in with Sevarano, a second-season novice who put his experience to good use when winning Friday’s 2m4f event at Newbury. Still, it was a Henderson-trained rival who caught the eye: the well-bred It Sure Is shaped like a promising stayer in second.

Nimble jumping and a race entirely controlled from the front by Robbie Power saw Cerberus repel all comers in the Grade Three juvenile hurdle at Fairyhouse last Sunday. As it was Mark Walsh’s task to master Cerberus only with the weapons he carried on stablemate A Wave Of The Sea, the front-runner went uncaptured.

That morning favourite had beaten Cerberus by only a neck at Punchestown in October – a disparity you’d have thought the latter would have been trebly equipped to thwart – so the 4lb penalty he shouldered already placed him at a disadvantage. His vulnerability was also presaged by the betting, which pushed him out from 10-11 to 5-4 joint-favourite with the winner.

Power had been advised by the injured JJ Slevin, who’d last month guided Cerberus to a 19-length success with a positive ride over the same course and distance. Here, Power established a short lead from the second hurdle and, pressed by the runner-up, was rewarded with two particularly efficient leaps at the final two hurdles to settle matters by more than two lengths.

There was little change to the running order of this field, however, meaning the closer you were to setting the pace the more advantageous your tactics; the time was relatively modest. By contrast to the winner, A Wave Of The Sea’s jumping lacked fluency and he was inclined to hang right in behind Cerberus in the straight.

Not surprisingly, trainer Joseph O’Brien was inclined to allow both juveniles to take their chance in Leopardstown’s Grade Two contest on Boxing Day as there continues to be not much between them on the figures. Cerberus’s technique currently has more bite, however.

Lydia’s selections:

Ruby’s selections: