Christmas racing: will these hot favourites be bankers or blowouts?

Race: Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (In Memory Of Nigel Clark), Kempton - December 26

Best odds: 15-8

Willie Mullins has not won the Kauto Star before, but he has the market leader here in Kitzbuhel. Named after the Austrian ski resort, home to the Streif, the world's most challenging downhill race, the five-year-old made a pleasing start to his chasing career when winning a Beginners Chase over 2m3f at Punchestown last month.

The past two runnings of that race have been won by Gaelic Warrior and Ballyburn, and Kitzbuhel was well-backed and jumped well. He looked like he may be in trouble turning for home, but responded well to pressure and did his best work late on.

On that evidence, this step up to three miles should augur well, but he came unstuck on his only attempt over three miles so far, finishing a well-beaten fifth in the Liverpool Hurdle in April when too keen. 

He looks to have plenty of ability, but I cannot feel he is priced up on potential rather than any standout pieces of form, plus he also finished narrowly behind the re-opposing Salver and Blueking d'Oroux in Sandown's Select Hurdle in a first-time hood, who are both available at 3-1 and 10-1 for this contest respectively. Like last time, Kitzbuhel has the hood left off here, and though he may make up into a much better chaser, his odds look skinny enough.

Verdict: Blowout

Race: Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle, Kempton - December 26

Best odds: 8-13

Sir Gino was truly outstanding last year before his season was cut short due to a life-threatening infection, winning the Fighting Fifth Hurdle by eight lengths and then the Wayward Lad on his chasing debut by seven and a half.

I am surprised connections have not stuck to chasing, he was not always the most fluent hurdler despite his huge engine, but if he is back to his best, he should probably be winning this race. The best horse in the race at his peak he may be, but how near to his best will he return?

Golden Ace is a much better mare than many have given her credit for. Who knows if she would have beaten The New Lion last time, but both were full of running when Dan Skelton's six-year-old fell two out, and she backed up her Champion Hurdle win with a solid display behind State Man at Punchestown. Jeremy Scott is now in much better form, too.

Celtic Dino also arrives here off a career-best, plus Rubaud has won here five times before. Whilst I wouldn't rush to lay Sir Gino given how good he has been in his six starts so far, I would have a few doubts about his readiness for this assignment after such a serious illness and would not be rushing into backing him at 8-13 either.

Verdict: Blowout

Race: William Hill Formby Novices' Hurdle, Aintree - December 26

Best odds: 4-7

Mydaddypaddy has won his three starts by a cumulative 22 and a half lengths and looks a warm order for Friday's Formby Novices' Hurdle at Aintree.

Sent off at short odds for both of his hurdling starts to date, he followed up his Carlisle win with a facile success at Haydock this month, where he again travelled strongly in behind rivals, jumped well on the whole and won with any amount in hand over two horses that each came into the race on the back of two wins.

He would not want the ground to get much softer, but there is a dry week forecast, so he should get his ideal conditions, and whilst plenty of his rivals arrive here in good form, Dan Skelton's son of Walk In The Park sets a solid standard, with potentially more improvement to come in a more strongly-run race. 

Verdict: Banker

Race: Racing Post Novice Chase, Leopardstown - December 26

Best odds: 4-6

A wide-margin Grade One winner over hurdles at his meeting last year, plus two from two over fences, it is no surprise to see Romeo Coolio head the market for the Racing Post Novice Chase.

Mightily impressive when winning the Grade One Drinmore last time, he was the quickest horse through each of the final three furlongs, and four of the last five and has so far taken to the larger obstacles like a duck to water. This, however, looks his toughest chasing test to date.

After Romeo Coolio finished third in the Supreme, well ahead of Salvator Mundi, that horse then reversed form at Aintree, with the Willie Mullins-trained gelding getting the better of Gordon Elliott's star by seven lengths.

However, the re-opposing Salvator Mundi was sent off at odds of 1-7 for his chasing bow at Thurles last month, but could only finish second behind stablemate Kappa Jy Pyke, whilst another rival in this race July Flower is two from two over fences, but this is a tougher assignment and she may benefit from a stronger stamina test at this level - she was placed in a French Champion Hurdle over further than three miles.

Verdict: Banker

Race: Ladbrokes Wayward Lad Novices' Chase, Kempton - December 27

Best odds: 5-4

Sam Thomas is having a phenomenal season, operating at a 39 per cent strike rate, and Lump Sum looks very exciting having beaten subsequent winner Jax Junior on his chasing debut, before finishing third behind Lulamba and Be Aware when set a tough task in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase last time out.

Sent off 6-1 for that race, he was only beaten a head by the runner-up and sets the standard, but he will have to give the talented unbeaten chaser Mambonumberfive 6lb here, who was bought very much with chasing in mind when connections parted with €450,000. Dan Skelton also has a rapid improver on his hands in Mirabad, who beat Lump Sum's Betfair Hurdle conqueror Joyeuse at Exeter on chasing debut this month.

It would, of course, be no surprise if Lump Sum won, but Mambonumberfive makes more appeal at 4-1 given the form of his two chasing wins have also worked out well.

Verdict: Blowout

Race: Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Handicap Chase, Kempton - December 27

Best odds: 7-4

It has been a remarkable season for Thistle Ask, having began the campaign rated 115, and now finding himself rated 146 and favourite for the Desert Orchid.

He was very strong in the betting last time when running out an impressive seven-length winner of the Haldon Gold Cup at odds of 3-1 from 5lb out of the weights 

Second that day was the re-opposing Saint Segal, who is now rated 7lb higher, having gone on to win impressively at Kelso in the interim. Though Jane Williams's seven-year-old will not have to concede quite as much weight this time around, their gap was significant enough at Exeter that it may be too tough an ask to reverse the form, especially since Dan Skelton's charge may not yet be done improving and this course ought to suit.

There are other dangers, of course, but at this stage the 7-4 looks a fair price.

Verdict: Banker

Race: December Hurdle, Leopardstown - December 29

Best odds: 8-13

With Brighterdaysahead, Anzadam and Wodhooh all in contention for this race, Lossiemouth is a slightly bigger price than many anticipated, for all she is still an odds-on chance at the time of writing.

Good news then, for those like me, that think she is one of the best hurdlers around and will take an awful lot of beating should she line up in the Champion Hurdle come March.

Whilst not a certainty according to the ratings (both Lossiemouth and Brighterdaysahead are 159), Rich Ricci's filly has proven time and time again that she is top drawer and though she has been seen to best effect over two and a half miles, she has top form over the shorter trip that is likely to be enough to land this.

There are also doubts surrounding how ready Brighterdaysahead will be for this having not been seen since early May and connections having aborted their original plan to go chasing. 

Lossiemouth already has winning form over Elliott's other contender in Wodhooh, whilst Anzadam seemingly had no excuses for not winning at Newcastle last time and has to concede 7lb.

This could be a decent race, with El Fabiolo and Irancy also in the reckoning, but Lossiemouth is my idea of the Champion Hurdle winner and is an exceptional jumper on the whole. She should take all the beating.

Verdict: Banker