King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes ante-post tip: Score with Gol

As is often the case, the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at the end of this month has a more international flavour than is often the case in the major middle-distance races that take place in Britain and Ireland earlier in the season. 

France's reigning champion Calandagan heads the market ahead of Japanese contender Masquerade Ball, but it was the other way round when Calandagan prevailed by a head in the Japan Cup back in November, with the last-named's SP of 26/5 as surprising to European horseracing fans as it was unfamiliar. 

Since then, Calandagan’s only real misstep has come when his wheels got stuck in the mud at Epsom, though in truth that was more a rare error of judgement by his trainer Francis-Henri Graffard. 

Calandagan won the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud prior to his length win over Kalpana in this race last year, and again warmed up with victory there at the start of the month, though his neck defeat of Cualificar, with Sunly close up in third, was much less emphatic than might have been expected. Indeed, he might still be the world’s third-highest-rated horse, but none of his three performances this year have come within half a stone of his defeat of Ombudsman in October’s Champion Stakes. 

The Andre and Lavinia Fabre-trained Cualificar could be a good yardstick, as he was much further adrift when third behind GOLIATH at Chantilly earlier in the season, and it’s the Graffard second string who makes most appeal to me at the odds. He’s 12-1 with William Hill, and 10s in general. 

Winner of this race two seasons ago following a defeat in the Hardwicke Stakes at the Royal meeting, Goliath looks to be on the same path after finding Giavellotto and Kalpana ahead of him last month. But that doesn’t tell the full story; dropped in from a wide draw, he came from miles back, and jockey Christophe Soumillion lost his irons when coming with a challenge a furlong out. 

Soumillon rode Goliath much close to the pace when winning this race, in fifth most of the way until picking up the leaders less than two out; the winning margin of two and a quarter lengths over subsequent Arc winner Bluestocking could have been twice that had Soumillon not started celebrating a furlong from home. 

The long-range forecast doesn’t suggest that there will be enough rain to swing the scales in the favour of either Kalpana or Bay City Roller, who lead the British challenge and shouldn’t be underestimated, but conditions should favour the leading Ballydoyle contenders Benvenuto Cellini and Minnie Hauk. The latter looks to have had her season geared towards this and will relish the longer trip; for me, she is a much bigger danger than Benvenuto Cellini whose campaign has been well curated, but whose form doesn’t carry the same gravitas. 

The aforementioned Masquerade Ball is an intriguing runner, but a simplistic view of his form with Romantic Warrior (beaten a length in the QEII Cup at Sha Tin) and Calandagan leaves him with a little to find, especially as he was in receipt of 5 lb when beaten by the latter on his home patch last time.  

This looks a tough first taste of racing outside of Asia for the Takahisa Tezuka-trained four-year-old, but it’s much more familiar ground for the six-year-old Goliath and – granted a strong pace to chase and a more prominent pitch (“Unfortunately I was one or two positions too far back because of my draw, if I was drawn four or five I think I would have ridden him more positively,” said Soumillon after the Hardwicke) - he can regain his crown.  

GOLIATH at 12-1 with William Hill, 10-1 general