How To Bet £20 on Saturday: 50-1 chance can hit jackpot

The Betfair Ascot Chase (3.35) has been billed as a match between Jonbon and Pic D’Orhy but 50-1 chance Blow Your Wad can upstage the pair of them.

Jonbon seeks a 12th Grade One success, is rated 24lb superior to my tip and has yet to finish out of the first two in 26 races, so perhaps I need to give my head a wobble for taking him on.

However, his jumping has lacked fluency this season and he finished out on his feet when clawing back Thistle Ark in the closing stages of a bruising Clarence House Chase last time. His Finishing Speed percentage of 93.76% was the slowest of his career and tells you everything you need to know about a sapping contest.

Jonbon has had only four weeks to recharge his batteries and is moving up to the longest trip of his career. The extra yardage is not a big concern, but the extra fences are because he’s been scruffy getting from A to B this campaign, with his RaceiQ Jump Index scores being a modest 6.0, 6.2 and 6.5. In other words, he’s making life hard for himself.

Meanwhile, Pic D’Orhy is seeking a third successive win in this contest but the 11-year-old had a tough race when runner-up in the Charlie Hall on his return, when trying 3m for the first time, and ran lamentably here last time. He’s never had much racing, and that Wetherby contest may have left a mark.

Edwardstone, another veteran, is third in the betting, but there was talk of him being retired after his hard-fought success at Kempton last time and, for all his admirable qualities, he’s clearly not the force of old. 

Blow Your Wad has stacks to find on ratings, but the 2024 Pendil Novices’ Chase winner still has time on his side, at the age of 8, and he’s run creditably in two valuable 3m handicaps at Ascot this term. 

His latest effort in the Silver Cup needs marking up, too, as he didn’t jump anywhere near as well as he normally does and made a complete mess of two out when still in with a shout. He’s since switched yards, moving to Gary & Josh Moore from Tom Lacey, and will have a new jockey in Freddie Mitchell. 

Dropping back in trip will not inconvenience him and if the principals fluff their lines, which doesn’t look a 50-1 chance, then he can take advantage. 

Thomas Mor stands out on form in the Injured Jockeys Fund Ambassadors Programme Reynoldstown Novices' Chase (1.50) after splitting Kitzbuhel and Wendigo in the Kauto Star last time, but he’s no bigger than Evens and I’d rather back the outsider of the quartet, Crest Of Fortune, trained by Anthony Honeyball. 

He's got a progressive profile and went off the same price as Thomas Mor in the Kauto Star, but he trailed home after bursting a blood vessel. 

We can clearly put a line through that run and hopefully he can get back on track. He had previously been a keeping-on fourth to Wendigo over 2m 4f at Newbury, when again crying out for the step up to 3m. 

At Haydock, Monbeg Genius get the nod in the William Hill Half A Mill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (3.15). 

He’s been something of an underachiever since finishing on the heels of Corach Rambler and Fastorslow in the Ultima at Cheltenham three years ago, but he ran well in the Welsh National for the second successive year last time, when keeping-on to be fifth on ground that was probably livelier than he prefers. 

His jumping can be a weapon when he’s on song and he’s slipped to the same mark as when beating Richmond Lake at Uttoxeter this time last year. Moreover, the O’Neill yard is in better shape than for a while, enjoying five winners and seven places from 22 runners this month. 

I’ll also be having a small saver on Richmond Lake because he reserves his best for this track and ran another cracker when touched off in the Peter Marsh last time. The longer trip is a niggle for him, but Brian Hughes will no doubt drop him out try and creep into things late on. In any case, the stamina doubt seems factored into his double-figure price. 

Finally, Off The Jury is worth a second look in the Pertemps Network qualifier (3.50), a race in which Doddiethegreat was runner-up in last year before landing the Final at Cheltenham the following month. 

He has still yet to win a race after 11 starts but was runner-up EBF Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final at Sandown in March and subsequentlychanged hands for big money in the David Maxwell dispersal sale. 

Mickey Bowen has kept him in maiden/novice hurdle company in three starts this term, but now unleashes him back in handicap company (just 2lb higher than at Sandown) over a trip he’s been looking for. In addition, the seven-year-old has had a breathing op since his latest run plus will be sporting a first-time tongue-tie. 

William Hill make him 9-1 but BetMGM are only a point shorter and are offering five places for each-way players, which looks the way to go. I cannot see him quoted in the ante-post lists for the Pertemps Final, but he’s one for your shortlist. 

1.50 Ascot: Crest Of Fortune £2 win at a general 10-1 

3.15 Haydock: Monbeg Genius £2 each-way at 11-1 with bet365 (four places) 

3.15 Haydock: Richmond Lake £1 each-way 9-1 with bet365 (four places) 

Ascot: Blow You Wad £3 win and £2 each-way at a general 50-1 

3.50 Haydock: Off The Jury 8-1 £2.50 each-way with BetMGM (five places)